This article comes from WeChat public account: interface news (ID: wowjiemian) , author: Bo Qian Yan
European central governments, which had long-term weak growth and lacked strong administrative capabilities, are now facing severe epidemics that require extraordinary means.
Europe is already the world’s most severe epidemic area of new pneumonia, with more confirmed cases and deaths than other countries and regions outside China combined. According to the World Health Organization, “Europe has become the epicenter of the new crown pneumonia pandemic.”
In addition to pressure on the health sector, with the gradual escalation of epidemic prevention measures in various countries, whether in the service industry, the real economy, or the financial industry, the overall impact of the epidemic on European society is gradually being reflected.
The question is: Compared with China, which can still guarantee an average annual economic growth of about 6%, will the EU, which has a weak economic growth, be forced into recession by the epidemic?
Clustering industry
Unlike other Italian subways with old facilities and worrying sanitary conditions, Milan Metro Line 5 which was put into operation in 2013 is clean and tidy. This line, also known as the Purple Line by the locals, extends westward to the suburbs, and the terminal with few pedestrians on weekdays has been repaired especially magnificently. This is the San Siro / Meazza Stadium.
At 8 pm on March 12, the stadium of Meazza was supposed to be full of enthusiasm. At this moment, it should be the quarter-finals of the UEFA Europa League against Getafe of Spain. The truth is, there is no one inside or outside the stadium.
“Even if we directly judge that we lose the game, we are determined not to go to Milan. The health of the players is more important than anything, and I will not let them go to Italy for adventure.” Getafe Club President Angel Torres The tough statement on March 10 has actuallyThe game was predicted to abort.
Inter Milan’s encounter is happening to all Italian teams and will soon happen to all European teams.
On March 4, the number of confirmed cases of the new crown in Italy reached 3,100. Prime Minister Conte announced on the same night that all sports events must be held on the ground until April 3, including the Serie A highlight on March 8. ——Juventus against Inter’s national derby.
As the Serie A with relatively low commercial operation capacity and the most stretched revenue in the five major European leagues, the open match means a huge loss. Juventus alone against Inter Milan, based on last year’s box office revenue, the two clubs will lose at least 6.6 million euros. If calculated by the UEFA ’s Serie A ticket income of 276 million euros last season, a month of Serie A open games means a loss of 29 million euros.
The only good news is that open games do not affect the team ’s broadcast revenue. Serie A’s broadcast revenue is on average about three times the ticket income. Last season, the total broadcast revenue of 20 teams reached 1.15 billion euros, which should have been the last straw for Serie A clubs. However, with the outbreak of the epidemic in Italy, starting from March 10, the empty game eventually turned into a complete shutdown of all games. This also means that the loss of Serie A in a month will be expanded to at least 150 million euros-the figure has not yet calculated the more profitable Champions League, not to mention that few people believe that Italy can completely contain the epidemic before April 3.
Italy is just the tip of the iceberg.
On March 10, Conte announced that Serie A will be completely shut down for the same month. On the same day, Paris and Madrid also announced that Ligue 1 and La Liga will also play for at least one month. As for the most popular Bundesliga, Bayern Munich and Dortmund, where Bayern Munich and Dortmund are located, have announced the suspension of all activities involving more than 1,000 people, including Dortmund against Schurke 04 in the Ruhr area. Had to leave the field. On March 13, the German Football Association also announced that the Bundesliga will be suspended until April 20. So far, only the Premier League in the five major leagues has not issued an empty court order. However, according to the Sun, the FA is also expected to issue an open court order next week.
If the five major leagues are all shut down, the total loss for all clubs in a month will exceed 1.5 billion euros. According to the French “Team News”, UEFA will announce the extension of the European Cup this year to 2021 next Tuesday. According to the experience of the 2016 European Cup of France, this means that it will bring at least 1.6 billion euros to the venue.
Restricted by ban on activities above 1,000There is also the exhibition industry.
“This is a major blow, so there will be no refunds to exhibitors,” Olivier Riess (Olivier Rihs) The statement is enough to show how bad the situation is. Reese is the chief executive officer of the Geneva Motor Show host company. A February 28 ban on the Swiss government directly lifted the 90th Geneva Motor Show. 600,000 visitors, more than 15,000 professionals and media personnel should bring 20 million to 25 million Swiss francs to the exhibitors and local catering and accommodation industries.
Not only the Geneva Motor Show, but in less than a month, many well-known European exhibitions, including the Hannover Messe, the Leipzig Book Fair, the Venice Carnival, and the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona, were cancelled or significantly delayed. Among them, the World Mobile Communications Conference and the Hannover Industrial Fair, which represent the top events in the technology and industrial circles, have brought about 460 million revenues and more than 200,000 passengers to the local area.
The sports industry, which is different from empty games, can still rely on the cost of broadcasting, and major exhibitions that emphasize interaction and commercial exchanges have almost no possibility of moving online. According to the estimates of the German Exhibition Association, in Germany alone, canceled exhibitions as of March 9 will bring direct losses of 890 million euros. If you include transportation companies, exhibition operations, equipment rental and trading companies, etc. Many exhibition service companies have an indirect loss of about 2.13 billion euros.
Compared with the well-known exhibition organizer companies that have big business and big businesses, the exhibition service companies that rely on the exhibition itself are mostly small and micro enterprises with less than 50 people, and these companies rely on 80% of their expenditure during the exhibition preparation period. Payments from exhibiting companies. But just like the Geneva Motor Show, in order to ensure public reputation, the organizer often only refunds the ticket costs of visitors, and the fees paid by exhibiting companies are not or will only be partially refunded. This has also caused MICE service companies at the bottom of the food chain to face immense cash flow pressure.
The German Ministry of Finance recently revealed that the ministry receives calls from more than 100 convention and exhibition service companies requesting funding for rescue every day, and about 250 small and micro enterprises’ funding chains are about to break.
On March 11, Hartendorff, chairman of the World Convention and Exhibition Industry Association, (Kai Hattendorf) said that the new crown virus has caused at least global exhibition The industry lost 14 billion euros, and most of them were in Europe, where the current epidemic is most severe.
Frozen Liquidity Industry
Professional bankruptcy, the term is used to describe Alitalia’s (Alitalia) is probably the most appropriate.
In the financial crisis of 2008, Alitalia declared bankruptcy. However, with the financial support of the then Italian Prime Minister Berlusconi, Alitalia was able to continue to survive. In 2014, Alitalia finally ushered in the acquisition of Middle East tycoon Etihad Airways. Unfortunately, after three years of losses, Alitalia, abandoned by Etihad in 2017, went bankrupt again. The Italian government, which urgently acquired its shares, was completely locked up. Until the beginning of this year, Alitalia, which once again received a 400 million loan, showed hope: revenue and passengers in January increased by 3% and 4% year-on-year, which is also the most beautiful data in recent years.
Now hope is gone.
Although the Italian government has not ordered the ban on all international flights, with the cessation of all flights to Italy by France, Austria, Spain and other countries as of the 13th, it is an indisputable fact that the demand for travel has significantly reduced under the impact of the epidemic . According to data from the Italian aviation application software IlSole24ore, passenger traffic at major Italian airports, including Milan, Venice, and Genoa, shrank by more than 40% before Conte announced the blockade of the two northern regions. Alitalia, which has just started to improve, has cancelled 38 flights. According to the Evening Post, Alitalia has changed its 4,000 employee contract to a short-term contract of 7 months.
Not only is Alitalia already weak, even Lufthansa, Europe ’s largest airline, cannot be spared.
As of March 12, Lufthansa has announced the cancellation of more than 7,100 flights in March, which is equivalent to approximately 25% of the company’s capacity. According to Lufthansa CEO Carsten Spoel (Carsten Spohr) , this number will rise to 50% within the next week, the company All Airbus A380s have to stay in the hangar: “Our primary goal is to reduce losses and ensure the company’s liquidity.”
Bad news continues.
“A large number of new clusters in the United States (