This article is from the WeChat public account: Internet and Entertainment Strange Team (ID: TMTphantom) , author: monster head group Pei culture, the subject map from: IC photo
There is no doubt that Alibaba was, is, and will be a company based on e-commerce, especially retail e-commerce. Ali’s operating profit comes almost entirely from the core e-commerce business, especially the Taos e-commerce (Taobao / Tmall / Ju cost-effective, etc.) . As for other businesses-new retail that is counted as “core e-commerce”, and cloud computing, entertainment, and innovative businesses other than “core e-commerce”, although it cannot be said to be unimportant, it is not the decisive front and will not The outcome of the battle.
As a result, the Strange Thief always believes that simply comparing Ali with Tencent is meaningless; comparing Ali with Meituan is also of limited significance. Obviously, Ali’s future does not depend on “it has a superior strategy with Tencent’s organizational system”, nor does it depend on “whether it can defeat the US regiment.”
Alibaba’s future depends on whether its core e-commerce business can cope with other large e-commerce platforms at the same time (mainly Pinduoduo, Jingdong is only accompanying customers) < / span> and the decentralized e-commerce platform (small programs, Youzan micro mall, fast shop, etc.) , can we maintain stability? Revenue and profit growth.
Again: Alibaba’s future depends on its core e-commerce business (mainly e-commerce for Taoism) Repels the attack of centralized e-commerce platforms such as Pinduoduo, and decentralized e-commerce platforms such as WeChat Mini Programs; it depends on whether Tao e-commerce can continue to contribute stable revenueIncome and profit growth. Alibaba’s future does not depend on whether its organizational culture is better than Tencent or Meituan, it does not depend on whether its cloud computing or innovative business has technological advantages, nor does it depend on wars in Southeast Asian, Indian or Middle Eastern markets.
“Core e-commerce” in Ali’s financial report (also known as “core business”) is a very broad concept, including online retail , Offline retail, overseas retail, B2B, O2O, etc. Investors and industry insiders are mainly concerned with domestic online retail, that is, e-commerce based on Tao. Regardless of whether it is an e-commerce company or other non-self-operated B2C / C2C e-commerce company, its operating income follows the following formula:
Operating income = GMV * Monetization rate
GMV = VV * order conversion rate * customer price
VV = DAU * User Duration * Click Rate = Internal VV + External VV
Order conversion rate = product / content open rate * (purchase rate + repurchase rate)
Monetization rate = advertising monetization rate + commission rate
Explain some nouns in the above formula:
GMV: There is no need to explain this. By the way, many people ask if Ali or Pinduoduo GMV has water. From a very strict point of view, the GMV of any e-commerce platform will carry moisture, but we do not intend to discuss this topic here.
VV: Vist View, the total number of visits to a website / app within a certain time frame. Suppose that 100 million people have opened the mobile phone Taobao today, and each person opened it 2.5 times on average, and its VV is 2.5Billion.
Internal VV: The VV from Amoy e-commerce, or broadly the “Ali”.
External VV: A VV from the “Ali”, for example, jumped from Douyin and Quick Live Broadcast.
Order conversion rate: Among all VVs, what percentage of purchase orders occur? Assuming VV is 250 million times and 25 million real purchases occur, the order conversion rate is 10%.
Monetization rate: Remove the self-operated GMV from Tmall Supermarket and Hema Online. There are two main monetization methods for third-party GMV of e-commerce, namely advertisement (including through train) and commissions; Tmall has commissions, but Taobao does not. There is no commission for Pinduoduo.
It is not difficult to see that Tao’s e-commerce has the following roads to achieve continuous revenue growth:
Increase the customer price (Branding / consumption upgrade) ;
Improve order conversion rate (Algorithm / tonality / explosion new product) ;
Improve internal VV (sink market / content / information flow) ;
Improve the external VV (Taobao / Internet red belt goods) ;
Improve the monetization rate (similar to the first one) .
Two of these five paths are difficult to achieve, orIt ’s better not to implement:
In the past two years, Tao ’s e-commerce has added more than 100 million annual active users, and has become the leading app in China except WeChat. Moreover, by supporting Taobao ’s live broadcast, short video, internal information flow and other “content “E-commerce” model, the user time has also increased a lot. From now on, although the endogenous traffic of Taoism e-commerce will not be exhausted, it must have passed the period of rapid rise. It is quite difficult to improve the internal VV. (Finding users overseas is not the subject of this article) .
In a situation where the macro economy is sluggish and competitors are adopting a low-price sinking strategy, increasing the monetization rate is not a wise move, and Ali management does not plan to adopt it. In fact, we estimate that the “actual comparable monetization rate” of Taoism e-commerce has increased slightly in the past few years; whether it is a small increase, a flat or a slight decline in the next few years, it is unlikely that the increase will be significant.
Several other roads can go through, and have even passed:
In the mobile era, Taoism e-commerce has been emphasizing consumption upgrades. Specifically, they are: directing high-quality traffic to Tmall; supporting Tmall brand flagship stores and strengthening cooperation with head brands; encouraging the launch of new products and sharp goods on Tmall; emphasizing the tone of products and brands; developing cross-border e-commerce, especially Is one of the high-end goods. Until 2019, the strategy of increasing the customer unit price was very successful.
Adjust the traffic distribution mechanism of mobile Taobao to encourage merchants to operate their own fan base and optimize algorithms; meanwhile, emphasize the content attributes and tone of e-commerce, as well as the internal social attributes of Taobao (Taobao group, store attention, etc.) . Of course, the above method also increases the user time, but mainly improves the order conversion rate.
Tao e-commerce has always encouraged merchants to take traffic from the outside and match the traffic internally. (specific