Behind the mask factory’s production day and night, market supply tends to be sufficient and prices continue to fall. But for newcomers who just entered the market, where should they go in the face of high costs and saturated market demand? The picture from the IC photo, this article comes from public micro-channel number: weather SCIENCE (ID: iawtmt) , author: ZhangJiLong < / span>
After more than forty days, Li Hao ’s mask factory finally produced the first batch of masks.
But this does not mean that Li Hao can be relieved. After all, it will take some time for the machine to debug and ramp up the production capacity. For this reason, he still has to be busy until the early hours of the day, and the weekend is no exception.
More importantly, as the country enters late March, as the country actively promotes the resumption of production and production, the market for masks and other epidemic prevention materials is also changing. In pharmacies and supermarkets, the once-empty mask shelves began to be filled with masks, and the price was more affordable than before. The success rate of masks in many cities has increased significantly, and the number of optional masks has increased. More and more people.
I know that the user “Master Zhang” answered a question about where to buy a mask during the epidemic, received millions of readings, and tens of thousands of people liked it, but recently he found that more messages in the comment area became “I’ve stocked too much, who wants?”
“Now one-time disposable medical masks with a factory price of nine are not easy to sell.” Given that the factory price of disposable medical masks has fallen back to the unit price of 1.6 yuan, a mask dealer said that 100,000 masks in his hand, Only exports can be planned; there are also “yellow cows” who ordered a batch of masks during the epidemic period, intending to make a fortune, but only recently received the masks, only to find that the market price is already lower than the purchase price, and they couldn’t help laughing.
From a mask that is difficult to obtain to a recovery in supply and a fall in prices, changes in the mask market are the result of a substantial increase in domestic production capacity. According to the information of the National Development and Reform Commission, as of February 29, including ordinary masks, medical masks, medical N95 masks, the daily production capacity of masks in the country reached 110 million, and the daily output reached116 million.
Some people in the industry have judged that, after nearly one month, the daily production capacity may have reached about 200 million. This is because during the epidemic, faced with the huge demand for masks, many non-mask manufacturers have switched to masks.
But a series of costs and processes including the purchase of production machinery, raw materials, and application for qualification have come down, and many companies have not completed production until recently. In the face of the already sufficient mask supply market, can these converted companies still receive dividends? Where should they go after the epidemic has passed?
Flock Into the Office
“If we don’t switch production, we will be closed this year.”
Liu Yifei, the founder of a custom clothing brand, feels very grateful. During the Spring Festival, her clothing factory received a request from the regulatory authorities, hoping to be able to switch to medical supplies such as masks and protective clothing.
“ (Supervisory department) Give us a quick green channel, and then organize us to set up a sterile production workshop.” Liu Yifei said that the matter Looking back, the conversion is actually very correct, otherwise the company will not be able to sustain it.
Almost at the same time as Liu Yifei, in February of this year, Li Hao, who was originally engaged in the production of luggage, also decided to switch to masks. “Our original intention was to assist the local government and later to maintain the factory without layoffs.”
For Li Hao, his luggage business during the Spring Festival always ushered in the “small peak season”, but this year’s epidemic has brought him a huge blow-offline sales are basically zero, while online sales have fallen from last year. About 60%.
After SARS in 2003, Li Hao responded more quickly this time. He believes that it is important to keep the employees’ jobs so that everyone can do things. So after receiving the government’s demand, Li Hao and several shareholders decided to chase millions of conversions.
Since the outbreak, there are not a few companies that have turned to masks, including Sinopec, SAIC-GM-Wuling, BYD, GAC Group, Foxconn, Gree and other manufacturing giants.
Taking Gree as an example, on February 18, Gree announced that it invested 20 million yuan to establish Zhuhai Gjian Medical Technology Co., Ltd. to produce epidemic prevention materials. On March 9, these masks were put on sale at “Dong Mingzhu’s Store”. According to Gree Electric, the daily production capacity will be 1 million masks..
“Dong Mingzhu’s shop” has opened masks for appointment purchase
In addition to manufacturing giants, the apparel industry and diaper and sanitary napkin manufacturers with aseptic workshops have also joined in. Since mid-February, three shots of underwear, red bean clothing, Mercury home textiles have been put into mask production; Daddy Baby, Beinmei Group and others also set up mask production lines in their diaper factories; clothing companies in Ningbo, Wenzhou, Qingdao and other places Get together. Recently, more news has been revealed that the electronic cigarette company Flow also produces masks.
In fact, behind the conversion, many industries experienced sales declines during the epidemic.
On March 12, the latest production and sales data released by the China Automobile Industry Association showed that in February this year, automobile production and sales fell by nearly 80% year-on-year; and Gree Electric Chairman and President Dong Mingzhu also expected that the company’s output value would decline this year. Because we basically did not sell for a month in February. In the past years, our sales were 10 billions and 20 billions, and this year is almost zero. “
In order to make up for the loss of the original business or meet its own needs, the production of masks has also become a “self-help” method for enterprises. Even some retail investors have begun to enter the group.
In mid-February, the owner of the “NIO Toner Club” of the Weilai Automobile user group proposed a self-produced mask, and soon got the approval of other owners. More than one million “, one of the organizers Li Meng expressed surprise.
“In itself, (Production) Masks are not very high barriers,” according to industry sources, mask production only requires the preparation of a purification workshop for Trial production test, apply for a license after the test is qualified, “if there is a factory, you can invest a small one million.”
Because the threshold is low and the investment amount is not high, the entryThere are many. According to the data of Tianyan Inspection, as of March 22, there were as many as 65,811 companies with the word “mask” in their business scope, and many of them were recently established.
When everyone is pouring into this industry, the supply chain of this niche industry will soon take off.
Buying a mask machine becomes the first problem for new mask manufacturers. In Li Hao’s mask factory, the longest part of the process from preparation to production of exit masks is waiting for the mask machine.
Automatic mask machine, pictures from the Internet
Because of the large demand and small output, the price of mask machines with prices of only 100,000 yuan on weekdays began to skyrocket. When the price was highest, one machine was fired to millions or even two million yuan.
Even if you place an order at a high price, it does not mean you can be at ease. “Even if the money is paid and people don’t stare, it may take a long time to get the machine.” Li Hao said that for mask manufacturers, the market is every day All are changing, and handing in a machine every night also means an increase in variables.
In addition to the machine, the raw materials required to produce the masks also experienced a surge. Liu Yifei said that during February, the prices of all raw materials for masks have risen rapidly, most of which have risen to about 6 to 20 times as usual.
One of the most critical meltblown cloths, the price has even risen more than 40 times. “Originally it was 10,000 yuan a ton. At that time, we purchased more than 200,000 yuan a ton, and later it was 400,000 yuan a ton.” Liu Yifei said.
The price of another key material, medical adhesive tape, even appears to be “almost every ten minutes.” On stage. “Liu Yifei said that in this case, shoppers even became a luxury.
Due to the eagerness of manufacturers to purchase, some scammers have the opportunity to take advantage of it.
Liu Yifei said that when his company purchased raw materials, “the money was paid, but the other party disappeared.” There was also a wrong version. “The goods sent were not the same as the samples sent, and then Can’t reach the other party’s factory. ”
And Li Meng also found that recently on the Internet, some people claimed to import meltblown cloth from Turkey and Russia, and the price is lower. The low-cost SMS non-woven fabric is equivalent to an alternative. “He believes that this may also be a fraud of unscrupulous merchants.
The production of masks is not easy. Especially for cross-industry “new factories”, if they are not operated properly, the hard-purchased machines may become waste products.
Due to the difficulty of debugging, the market has also spawned a lot of teams specializing in selling debugging services, and even reported a service price of 100,000 yuan a day on the Internet.
The machine capacity also requires a climbing process. Taking Li Hao’s mask factory as an example, the current daily output is 100,000, and he hopes to reach 1 million per day by early April.
Investment or speculation?
The mask machine works around the clock, but is it time for the manufacturers to count the money?
On the market, mask prices are falling at a rate that is visible to the naked eye. At the beginning of March, the disposable KN95 protective mask, which originally cost about 15 yuan, fell to about 9 yuan / piece in late March, and the factory shipment price has dropped to less than 7 yuan. The price of ordinary disposable protective masks also faces price reductions.
Taking Guangzhou as an example, starting from March 4, the “Sui Kang” mask shaker platform adjusted the price of masks. The prices of ordinary medical protective masks and KN95 masks were 1.8 yuan / piece and 8.6 yuan / piece respectively. Reduced to 1.5 yuan / a and 7.5 yuan / a. And in Luzhou, Loudi and other places have also reduced the guidance price of ordinary masks to 2 yuan / each.
Li Hao believes that the peak production capacity of masks has recently appeared. “As long as those who decide to enter the mask industry before and after Wuhan’s closure of the city, basically produce products within the last ten days.”
“We must be too late (to make quick money),” he said. The people who really make quick money should be the ones who opened the factory in February. “In November and December, they may have felt that Something went wrong to prepare. “
Mask industry practitioner Zhang Zetian believesIf the manufacturers who started to enter the mask industry only in early March, most of them will face the risk of being funded in the first half of the year. “Now the market is more pessimistic, because everyone knows that the domestic epidemic is basically over.”
He said that this is similar to stock speculation. Early entrants may indeed make a lot of money, and the cost of material reserves in advance will be much lower. “Monthly income of one million is no problem”, but “when everyone finds this is a hot spot, It’s not hot anymore. ”
The attitude of government agencies that have actively called for companies to switch to masks is also changing. On the Internet, it was revealed that many companies invested more than one million equipment and materials. After producing the masks, they could not get the government’s approval, and were persuaded that “you don’t need a mask now, you can change it back.”
A person in the channel industry in the mask industry also believes that changing production is not a good time now, and even the price war may be on the way. He believes that it may not be the flocked mask factories that really make money in this tide of masks, but the mask machine manufacturers and raw material suppliers.
The changes in costs and profits have greatly extended the payback period for companies. A mask factory that started production in early March is expected to recover costs in three months, while another company that started production in late March said, “If you can get back to one to a year and a half, it is good.”
Li Hao, who is also optimistic, believes that the current rate of return to work is about 70%, and there is still about 30% of space. In addition, students have not yet started school, and market demand has not been fully released. “So we feel that the next wave of domestic mask needs (peak) should be when the school returns to school.”.
However, he also acknowledged that even if there is still room for demand, the market is no longer as tight as before. Competition (Position) . “
Masks go to sea
With the epidemic stabilizing in China, but the outbreak period abroad, the demand for multi-country procurement of anti-epidemic materials has increased greatly. As a result, mask manufacturers have set their sights on foreign markets.
WHO statistics show that on February 26, new diseases reported outside ChinaThe number of cases exceeded the number of new cases in China for the first time; on March 16, the cumulative number of confirmed cases abroad exceeded China.
And there are indications that this figure abroad is still rising rapidly. As of March 23, the number of newly confirmed cases outside China was 248,800, which was approximately three times the cumulative number of confirmed cases in China. Among them, the United States, Italy, Iran, Spain, Germany and other countries have diagnosed more than 10,000 people. In the United States alone, on March 19, Eastern Time, there were 13,680 confirmed cases of New Coronavirus in the United States, an increase of almost 100% from the previous day.
Meanwhile, the news that mask prices in many countries have skyrocketed has been circulating.
Media reports said that the price of five masks in the United States has risen to $ 149. (about RMB 1059.39, that is, a single price of about 212 yuan) ) , and many pharmacies are out of stock; in Italy, the unit price of masks has also grown from 10 cents to 10 euros (about RMB 76.2 yuan) ; In a Spanish pharmacy, an FFP2 mask (N95 masks under EU standards) has sold for up to 300 euros, about It is RMB 2200 yuan.
The price of five masks on Amazon has recently risen to $ 110, and the pictures come from the Internet
As the demand for epidemic prevention materials has increased significantly, many countries have relaxed their import policies for masks. According to the Yonhap News Agency, on March 17, the South Korean Ministry of Planning and Finance suspended tariffs on imported masks and core raw materials of masks. The original tariffs on medical masks were 10%, while the tariff on meltblown cloth was 8%.
On March 20, France announced that it would expand its exports from China and other countries.Import of masks; Earlier, the United States announced the cancellation of costs for more than 100 medical products, including masks, sanitary wipes and gloves.
According to Alibaba statistics, the recent global buyers ’willingness to purchase mask-related products, such as masks, sanitizing hand sanitizers, and thermometers, has increased significantly. Among them, the demand for medical mask buyers has increased by 13769%.
In this case, many domestic mask companies have begun to shift their sales to export. On March 16, China General Technology Group and the Civil Defense Department of the Italian Government reached an agreement for the supply of 8 million masks, with a total price of 13.6 million Euros. Billion yuan) .
In a foreign trade forum, the mask area has been the most popular segment for many days, and a large number of domestic companies are seeking export of masks.
“The domestic prices are too great to afford,” said a mask company in Maanshan, which said they currently plan to export all masks overseas.
However, entering overseas markets is not easy, and the two key issues that companies need to solve are: qualifications and channels.
It is understood that the EU and the United States currently adopt CE and FDA certifications for imported masks, and the prices of related certifications are skyrocketing recently.
Taking CE certification as an example, the price of CE certification is usually not expensive. The cost of personal protection is 3,000 yuan to 8,000 yuan, and the cost of medical products is 3,000 yuan to 5,000 yuan. However, according to the quotation given by a person who undertakes the agency certification business, without the 2% tax point, the certification fee for civil masks is 17,500 yuan, and the certification fee for medical masks is 19,500 yuan.
But for mask makers who are eager to export, price may not be the most important issue. The key is time. “The FDA and CE certification in the United States takes a long time,” Zhang Zetian said.
The above agent also confirmed this, he said that the application cycle of the US FDA certification is about 2 weeks, and the EU CE is about 3-4 weeks. In other words, if the company just started to apply now, then the certification will not be until the end of April and early May, and the trend of the epidemic at that time is difficult to predict.
However, due to the shortage of masks recently, the European Union and the United States have relaxed the requirements for related material qualifications. On March 20th, the European Union issued a directive. In the face of the new crown epidemic, in order to meet the growing demand for masks, protective clothing and other epidemic prevention supplies, some epidemic prevention materials are allowed (such as a class Sterilized medical masks) can be sold on the EU market even if it has not been CE certified, if it is safe and effective.
Besides certification, the problem of overseas shipping channels has also caused headaches for domestic manufacturers.
“The medical system in foreign countries is very closed. It is basically very difficult to get in, and it is close to impossible.” Li Hao said that he can enter the overseas hospital procurement system because of his previous experience in luggage business. Local partners help.
“The foreign medical system is that when they find that your stuff is reliable, they may work with you for a long time and will not replace it randomly.” Li Hao believes that this opportunity is very important to him.
But for most mask manufacturers, without prior resources, most of them need to rely on “intermediaries”. But this also means that most of the profits of enterprises going abroad will be taken away by middlemen.
So, can foreign trade definitely save mask manufacturers? Zhang Zetian also put a question mark on this.
“Most foreign orders are mainly purchased by the government or medical institutions. The ordinary people do not wear masks, which is a matter of concept.” He believes that the focus of the market for masks is still domestic, “Basically April After mid-late, (Domestic) also has no particularly large space. ”
Retreat
Practitioners have different views on the development trend of the mask industry after the epidemic.
Li Hao believes that the epidemic will bring huge changes to the mask industry. After being educated, wearing a mask may become the lifestyle of most people in the future.
Some owners of restructuring companies have expressed dissatisfaction with this. They believe that masks will eventually return to the original normal state and return to a niche industry.
At the time when the market wind was uncertain, someone had already begun to retreat.
In Baidu’s “Mask Machine” Post Bar, the information on the sale of mask machines is increasing, and even some people are selling machines that have been debugged. “The technology is mature, the production capacity is stable, the package is installed and debugged, you can plug it back in and plug it in. Production. “
Practitioners also told All Weather Technology that they are preparing to sell some ethylene oxide sterilizers as market demand is now saturated.
The ethylene oxide sterilizer is the key equipment for the production of protective clothing and medical masks. Medical masks are usually sterilized with ethylene oxide. After sterilization, ethylene oxide will remain on the mask, and ethylene oxide is a toxic carcinogen. The residual ring on the mask must be analyzed by means of analysis. Ethylene oxide is released to meet the safety content standard.
In general, newly produced masks need 14 days to be analyzed before they can be marketed, but masks treated with an ethylene oxide sterilizer can shorten this time to 3-4 days.
Not only are mask companies starting to withdraw, upstream companies are also beginning to realize the risk of overcapacity.
On March 9th, Daun Co., Ltd., a company specializing in the production of polypropylene meltblown materials for masks, has released an announcement, prompting the use of polypropylene meltblown materials. Meltblown raw materials) risk of overcapacity. Dawn reminded that with the effective control of the epidemic, it is expected that future orders for the product will gradually decrease.
At the same time, in order to release stock, the mask raw material market has also experienced a price decline. Taking melt-blown cloth as an example, the price of melt-blown cloth on the market has been reduced from about 500,000 yuan per ton during the peak period to about 300,000 yuan.
The concept of masks, which have been strong before, has recently become less popular in the capital market. Even on Tuesday, the collective limit of A-share Guoen shares, Zaisheng Technology, and Shangrong Medical showed the market’s concern.
But for many companies that have entered the production of masks in this round, the change of production is only a temporary emergency policy, not a full investment. They still want to stick to their industry.
“I hope that the epidemic will pass sooner, and we can still do our clothing business normally,” said Liu Yifei, saying that the epidemic has brought a lot of losses to their companies. “We basically (equivalent) I lost a house in Guangzhou.”
However, she also mentioned that she was lucky to make up for the losses caused by the main business in the past two months after switching to masks and protective clothing, so that the company would not be shut down.
(Li Hao, Liu Yifei, Zhang Zetian, and Li Meng are all pseudonyms in the text)
This article comes from WeChat public account: All Weather Technology (ID: iaiawtmt) , author: Zhang Jilong