The article is from WeChat public account: Ice Glacier (ID: icereview) , author: off not Yu

With the resumption of work and production, except for Wuhan, Hubei, other areas have gradually returned to normal. Once tangled, troubled, desire returned to the world, even expressed in a more intense way.

The real estate field that makes people love and hate is re-emerging. The “Second Disc” reappears and is called “revenge buying a house.”

Stimulation of the housing market by the epidemic

The site of the incident is Suzhou. On March 20th, three major real estate projects in Suzhou were launched and added, and two days later, 309 suites of real estate projects were added to the nearby Taihu Resort. In just one weekend, Suzhou launched a super-thousand apartment source project to the market.

The popularity of sales is beyond imagination. In one minute, the sales of a real estate reached 1.2 billion, and the rate of elimination was 90%. The other one sold out after one minute. The online pre-sale realized “second light”, and the long-lost crowd at the offline sales office also appeared.

Similar scenes appeared in Shenzhen, and “Little Spring” also appeared in hot cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Nanjing. There are several epidemic factors for this situation:

First of all, during the epidemic, the problem of different rights to rent and sell was highlighted again. The tenants who were blocked at the gates of the community became “landscapes”. The anxiety in them magnified the desire to buy a house.

Second, the emerging cities of “retaliatory buying of houses” are concentrated in economically developed areas with good public medical care and social management, and the epidemic has increased the degree of attention that buyers pay to public service resources.

Also, during the epidemic, many real estate developers stepped up their sales promotion efforts, and also provided the convenience of online house viewing and remote house selection.

Macro background factors

In addition to the three epidemic factors, there are three more macroscopic background factors that have contributed to the “revenge purchase.”

First, it’s the market context. The long-term regulation has led to the phenomenon of inverted prices of first-hand and second-hand houses in some areas. For example, the average price per square meter of second-hand houses in some areas of Suzhou has been higher than that of first-hand houses by about 10,000 yuan. Buyers believe that this anomalous phenomenon contains the possibility of a rebound in housing prices.

Second, is the expectation of regulatory policies. The impact of the epidemic has led to tight local finances, and many people judge that land finances will become a solution, so they will relax their control policies.

The third is to predict the consequences of economic stimulus policies. The basis of this prejudgment is that new infrastructure and loose monetary policy may cause real estate to become a “currency sedimentation pool” again, which will cause housing prices to rise.

The short-term stimulus of the epidemic combined with the macro-background factors of economic policy and market environment have ignited “revenge buying a house.” So, get in the car quickly, or keep watching? There is no standard answer, but there are some ways to think about decisions.

No general rise is possible

First, why there is no standard answer. “China’s real estate market” is basically a pseudo-concept and has no practical significance for market operations. The blowout phase of collective property price increases has long passed, and market differentiation is obvious. Coupled with the implementation of the “strategy for the city”, the ice and fire dual sky in different regions and cities will only become more obvious.

Furthermore, the game between tightly regulated policy inertia and local impulsiveness is not over yet. The immediate U-turn of policies in places such as Haining is a clear sign.