The global pandemic of the New Coronary Pneumonia epidemic has brought great disaster to China and the world. At present, China has seen encouraging turning points and hopes. Not only has it basically controlled the spread of the epidemic, but it has gradually resumed production since March. But there have been some discussions on what measures and methods should be taken to restore and revitalize the economy. Some people suggested that the “new infrastructure” should be used to stimulate and revitalize the economy, while others believe that the “new infrastructure” may be re-entered the old road of “4 trillion” economic stimulus in 2008 Under the current economic situation, it is impossible for the “new infrastructure” to “pull the beam”, and the economy should be restored and revitalized by other means.

In fact, it is not simple to restore the economy and stimulate economic growth by starting major infrastructure projects (whether it is “new infrastructure” or “old infrastructure”) immediately after the outbreak. The theoretical problem, but what must be done immediately, this is a path that other methods cannot replace.


Large-scale infrastructure is an effective way to expand domestic demand

When the economy has already suffered a major impact and the impact is far from over, I hope It is far from enough to achieve the goal of restoring and revitalizing the economy through policy measures such as general resumption of production, tax reduction and fee reduction, liquidity easing, support for manufacturing enterprises and foreign-funded enterprises, support for private enterprises, and small, medium and micro enterprises. Especially when the epidemic is still spreading and spreading on a large scale around the world, the fundamental way to restore and revitalize the Chinese economy is to expand domestic demand. Only by expanding domestic demand can supply-side agriculture, industry, logistics and transportation and other various The production and living service industries (even foreign trade enterprises) can bring vitality and vitality to the recovery and growth of the entire domestic economy.

There are two main ways to expand domestic demand, one is to expand domestic consumption demand by encouraging and stimulating enterprises and the public to increase market consumption behavior, and the other is to carry out large-scale infrastructure Construction. Under the premise that the current epidemic prevention and control work cannot be relaxed, the promotion of economic growth by expanding domestic consumer demand in the short term is constrained by many factors. Therefore, the most direct, fastest, and best way to achieve this is to start large-scale infrastructure construction.

First of all, for large-scale infrastructure construction, the funds used are mainly financial expenditures and government debts, which can immediately “fund” the economy “big blood “Running. In the case of a severe economic crisis, the market has become weak, relying solely on the “invisible hand” of the market to solve the huge demand for funds in economic operationSlim. Therefore, through government fiscal expenditures and debts, funds can be immediately invested in the public domain of economic construction as soon as possible, which is undoubtedly the easiest, quickest and most effective means of saving and revitalizing the economy after the crisis.

Secondly, large-scale infrastructure construction can not only include steel, cement, building materials, mechanical equipment, energy, transportation, communications, electronic facilities, but also “new infrastructure”. The upstream and downstream industries in many fields that are matched by the high-tech industry are effectively mobilized. Therefore, to carry out large-scale infrastructure construction, we must not only see road construction, bridge construction, and engineering projects, but also see that it is driving the recovery and revitalization of the entire industrial chain and the recovery and revitalization of the entire Chinese economy.

Third, launching large-scale infrastructure projects is the easiest, quickest and most effective means to solve employment problems on a large scale under crisis conditions. In a crisis situation, many enterprises will face the problems of production cuts, shutdowns or even bankruptcy, and at the same time will generate a large number of unemployed people. In this regard, infrastructure construction will play an irreplaceable role. Because infrastructure construction requires a lot of labor, especially the modern infrastructure projects (including the “new infrastructure” project) that our country is currently carrying out, it can not only absorb a lot of ordinary labor, but also absorb a lot of Employment of senior laborers (this includes tens of millions of new college graduates every year).

Fourth, large-scale infrastructure projects have enabled a large number of labor to achieve employment, and a large number of upstream and downstream enterprises have also been driven to resume production and expand production, and social purchasing power It will regain prosperity, social wealth will re-gather, all kinds of production material market, life material market, productive service market and life service market will be reactivated, and the domestic demand market of the whole country will be activated and expanded. The recovery and expansion of domestic production capacity and the recovery and expansion of the domestic demand market have also laid a new foundation for the expansion of the export capacity and the expansion of the export market once the international environment has improved. As a result, the Chinese economy is expected to come out of the shadow of the crisis soon and re-enter the track of healthy and sustainable development.

Finally, large-scale infrastructure is closely related to some measures during the epidemic prevention and control period. The main way to control the spread of the epidemic is to avoid people gathering in dense spaces as much as possible. Therefore, for many enterprises (especially industrial manufacturing enterprises) that require a large number of people to carry out production activities in the same closed space, their resumption of work The resumption of production will be greatly restricted. The vast majority of infrastructure construction is basically carried out in an open natural environment. Therefore, from this point of view, a large-scaleThe construction project is also aimed at the characteristics of the epidemic-an important and irreplaceable measure that not only needs to continue to effectively control the epidemic and cannot re-emerge, but also to restore and revitalize the economy as soon as possible.

Judging from the main coping strategies adopted by the Chinese government now, this point is clearly recognized and valued. At present, major infrastructure projects in various places have started construction.


“New infrastructure” is as important as “old infrastructure”

Recently, “new infrastructure” has attracted widespread attention from all walks of life. The so-called “new infrastructure” is the infrastructure construction that is different from the original “old infrastructure” such as roads, railways, bridges, and buildings. Generally speaking, it refers to two aspects. On the one hand, supporting infrastructure construction with technology innovation and industrial upgrading as the core areas, such as the Internet of Things data center, Internet data center, 5G base station construction, cloud computing, big data, UHV, Infrastructure construction such as artificial intelligence; on the other hand, infrastructure construction focusing on the upgrading of people’s livelihood, such as education, medical care, pension, social security, etc.

From this perspective, “new infrastructure” is undoubtedly of great significance to China’s development today and in the future. For example, in terms of 5G base station construction, China plans to build 6 million 5G base stations in the next seven years, which will greatly accelerate the commercialization of 5G in China, promote the deep integration of 5G with the Internet, the Internet of Things, and artificial intelligence, and promote 5G in production. , Consumer, foreign trade, national defense, national security and medical, education and other areas of the people’s livelihood of in-depth integration and development.

For infrastructure construction mainly in the field of people ’s livelihood consumption upgrade, such as medical treatment, education, old-age care, etc., this is actually an important infrastructure construction in China for many years. Short board “. After the outbreak of this epidemic, China ’s public health infrastructure—whether it is hospitals, medical equipment, and medical care resources—is seriously inadequate with the current level of development and the huge needs of the people. This situation also exists in various areas of people’s livelihood, such as education, pension, social security, basic housing, and other basic public services. Only by vigorously developing infrastructure in this area can China truly build a “well-off society” that basically meets the needs of the people’s livelihood, thereby realizing the “Chinese dream.”

People who overemphasize “new infrastructure” have overlooked an important principle, that is, “old infrastructure” is as important as “new infrastructure”, especially for the post-epidemic situation. In terms of policy measures taken to restore and revitalize the economy, “old infrastructure” can playThe effect may be greater.

I very much agree with Fan Hengshan, former deputy secretary general of the National Development and Reform Commission. He pointed out that first of all, “old infrastructure” still has great potential. In terms of regional coordinated development and improvement of development level, there are still a lot of debts owed to “old infrastructure” such as “Tie Gongji”. Taking the airport as an example, compared with developed countries, the number of airports in China is still relatively small, especially the general airport that carries multiple functions is in short supply. The development energy formed by complementing this short board is very huge, not less than “new Infrastructure ”level. Secondly, the “old infrastructure” also needs high-tech support. The “new infrastructure” is characterized by the combination of infrastructure and high-tech. In fact, the “old infrastructure” does not stay at the original development level. Those “old infrastructure” that are about to start construction are also related to network, digital, Intelligentization is closely integrated, in a sense, they are a fusion of traditional infrastructure and modern infrastructure. And some “new infrastructure” is a technical support for the developing “old infrastructure”, and it is separated from the carrier of the “old infrastructure”, and some “new infrastructure” is difficult to “make merits.” Therefore, the construction of new and old infrastructure should be given equal attention, and arrangements should be made as a whole to advance as a whole and coordinated development.

Liu Shijin, the former deputy director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, recently said that merely emphasizing “new infrastructure” will not solve China’s fundamental economic development after the epidemic. He put forward two points, one is to improve the rural settlement project, and the other is to do a good job in the construction of the metropolitan area, especially the metropolitan area. Rural settlement projects and metropolitan area construction are inseparable from the “old infrastructure.” His proposition is that both “new infrastructure” and “old infrastructure” should be equally important, and even “old infrastructure” has more important significance and role for the country’s current economic revitalization and development.


Starting large-scale infrastructure does not mean going back to stimulating the old road

First, we should objectively evaluate the “Four Trillion” plan in 2008. In 2008, in response to the global financial crisis, the Chinese government adopted a large-scale “four trillion” stimulus policy, which brought some negative impacts on the subsequent development of China’s economy. Looking back, if the “four trillion” stimulus and domestic demand expansion plan was not implemented, it would be difficult for the Chinese economy to quickly get out of the global financial crisis. At that time, China’s economy was extremely outward-oriented. The export-oriented economy oriented to the European and American markets was the main pillar of China’s economic development at that time, and this export-oriented economy was still the export processing trade industry at the lowest end of the global industrial chain. In the macroeconomic “troika” at that time, “export” and “investment” were the two pillars, and “domestic demand” only accounted for a small share of China’s economic development. Under this circumstance, the European and American economies collapsed overnight, and the European and American markets shrank sharply.With vigorous expansion of domestic demand stimulus measures, thousands of export-oriented enterprises in China will close down, and the entire Chinese economy will have problems.

It is precisely because the government promptly adopted a strong stimulus plan for expanding domestic demand represented by the “Four Trillion” plan, which not only saved the Chinese economy from the global financial crisis Instead, it was the only bright spot in the entire world economy at that time, and became the main force supporting and driving the rapid recovery of the world economy.

In terms of the long-term development of China ’s economy, the global economic crisis in 2008 has just become a major historical turning point in China ’s economic development. It is from then on that China ’s economy has truly shifted from an export-oriented export-oriented economy to a healthy and sustainable economic form mainly supported by the domestic demand market; China ’s industrial development has begun from the original lowest-end export processing trade Continue to move towards independent high-end industrial form. It can be said that without the tremendous transformation pressure brought about by the financial crisis in 2008, there would be no huge economic achievements that China has achieved today.

In addition, when the government first adopted such a large-scale economic stimulus “rescue market” plan in 2008, it lacked relevant experience, which caused some problems and future problems for China’s economic growth. as a result of. Against the backdrop of the impact of the epidemic, the central government has once again taken large-scale infrastructure as an important policy measure to restore and revitalize the economy. We have reason to believe that we will no longer take the worrying “4 trillion” old road.

First, we already have painful lessons and rich experience. In view of some problems that occurred in the large-scale infrastructure construction of “Four Trillions” in 2008, in this round of “new infrastructure” investment, from the central government to local governments will try their best to avoid the old road of “flood irrigation” and blind stimulation According to the requirements of high-quality development, funds will be invested in the projects and fields that are really needed.

Second, the current round of expansion of basic projects will adopt a more active fiscal policy. Strengthen the issuance of special bonds of local governments, optimize the investment of special bonds, and ensure the investment of funds in various projects.

Third, the current round of expansion of the basic project plan will adopt a more stable monetary policy. Implement precise support to infrastructure projects, increase credit lines, increase medium- and long-term loans, lower loan interest rates, and flexibly reduce financing costs for infrastructure projects.

Fourth, this round of expansion of the basic project plan will more widely mobilize the enthusiasm of private and social investmentGender, give full play to PPP and other financing models, and attract more social capital to participate in this round of large-scale infrastructure construction projects.

(Original title: Start new and old infrastructure to effectively expand domestic demand. The author is the vice chairman of China Comprehensive Development Research Institute and the founding chairman of the Ma Hong Foundation)