The title picture comes from: Xinhua News Agency photo by Guo Ke, this article comes from WeChat Official Account: Daily Economic News (ID: nbdnews ) , reporter: Cai Ding
U.S. stocks that have just entered a “technical bull market” because of a 20% rebound from the lows have encountered a head start before the opening on the 15th local time!
The US Department of Commerce released data on the 15th local time showing that retail sales in the United States fell by 8.7% month-on-month in March, the largest decline in history, and the expected decline was 8%. The previous value was revised from a 0.5% drop to a 0.4% drop.
Some organizations commented that the monthly rate of retail sales in the United States in March reached the largest historical decline since the data was recorded in 1992. In March, U.S. restrictions to contain the new coronavirus epidemic escalated rapidly. States began to close restaurants and bars and urged residents to stay at home. Many U.S. companies were temporarily closed as a result.
In the evening of the same day, data released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showed that the April manufacturing index in the New York area recorded -78.2, the lowest since 2001. It is worth mentioning that the value of the index during the financial crisis was -34.3.
After the release of the two data, the decline of the three major US stock index futures has expanded. It also affected US stocks that opened later. After the Dow opened lower, the decline quickly expanded to 656 points.
Image Source: Wind
Crude oil was also hit. At 22:20 Beijing time, cloth oil fell more than 6%, hitting a new low since April 2 to $ 27.84 per barrel.
Economists: The US economy has lost the most reliable growth engine
At the time the US retail sales were released in March, more than 15 million Americans had lost their jobs because of the new coronavirus epidemic.
Sung Won Sohn, a professor of business economics at Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles, said: “ (USA) The economy is almost in free fall. When the new crown virus The infection rate stabilizes and we will see the bottom, but this will be a very deep bottom. “
CNBC reported that under the influence of the epidemic, Amazon and other online retailers, grocery stores, and pharmacies have experienced a surge in revenue, but this is far from falling sales of other products.
The data shows that consumption affects more than two-thirds of the US economy. In the fourth quarter of 2019, US consumer spending grew at a rate of 1.8%, while the overall growth rate of the US economy was 2.1% during the same period. Economists believe that although the US government launched an unprecedented financial stimulus plan of US $ 2.3 trillion, which provided cash protection for some households and increased unemployment relief, the US consumers in the second quarter of this year Expenses still cannot be eased, and the largest decline is expected to reach 41%.
On April 14, in New York, USA, a woman passed by a poster to cheer up the fight against the epidemic (Photo credit: Xinhua News Agency, photo by Guo Ke) < / p>
Told Quinlan, senior analyst at Wells Fargo Securities, said, “Overall, although some consumer categories will be more resilient, consumer spending will look as bad as ever.Panic panic buying at the grocery store cannot offset the decline in spending seen elsewhere. “
The “Washington Post” reported that the US retail sales of 8.7% in March did not fully reflect how consumer spending shrank. Compared with the same period last year, the sales of apparel stores in the United States fell by as much as 50.7% in March. Auto sales fell from February to March, and may decline further in April.
Christ Rupkey, managing director and chief financial economist of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, (Chris Rupkey) In an email from a Japanese economic news reporter, “The retail sales data in March showed that the economic outlook is even bleaker than we thought. The US GDP in the second quarter will almost certainly shrink by 30%. This looks like a complete Disaster, the US economy has lost the most reliable growth engine-consumption. “
“We already know that in March, the annual rate of U.S. car sales fell by 31%, which shows that no American would buy a car, just like an economic shutdown would not be just days or Central Europe, but a few The U.S. economy is really in a state of free fall at present. The US economy will not bottom out until consumers “recover” from the prevention and control restrictions of the new coronavirus and restart their consumption. ”Rupkey added.
New York manufacturing industry hit the biggest drop in history
In addition to the largest decline in retail sales in 28 years, the New York area manufacturing index released on Wednesday recorded -78.2, the lowest level since September 2001. The index measures how well companies have reported in the past month. The data shows that only 7% of companies in the New York area said the situation had improved, and 85% said the situation had worsened.
New York area manufacturing index (pictureSource: Bloomberg)
Because of the restrictive measures of the US epidemic prevention and control, many companies closed down. New York State is not surprising because of the severe epidemic, and the manufacturing index has dropped so much, but the data released on Wednesday draws a picture of the future manufacturing prospects of the state. There was a huge question mark. Specifically, new orders and shipments for manufacturing in New York State are declining at a record rate in March: longer delivery times and lower inventories. But the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said in a statement that the state ’s employment level and average weekly working hours are shrinking at a record rate, and it is expected that the situation will improve slightly after six months.
Furthermore, 59% of companies in New York reported a decrease in the number of employees, while only 3.3% of companies said that employees recognized an increase in March; about 77% of companies said new orders fell, and 76% of companies Reported that shipments have declined, 51% of the companies said that the average weekly working hours decreased during the reporting period.
(This article is for reference only, does not constitute investment advice, and the operation is at your own risk accordingly)
This article is from WeChat public account: Daily Economic News (ID: nbdnews) , reporter: Cai Ding