The capital bureaus of major technology countries have reached a critical point. Whether or not to restrict China ’s purchase of equipment becomes an increasingly pressing pressure, requiring 42 bureaus of Wassenaar The middleman makes a choice. Success politics, defeat politics, will be the fate of the lithography machine. This article from the micro-channel public number: Oranges are not confused (ID: SmartOrange88) , Author: oranges not confused, the subject map from: IC photo

In 2019, Nikon sold a total of 47 lithography machines, accounting for 13% of the total market, which is not as good as its brother, Canon. However, although Canon sold 82 units, it focused on the first and second generation of ancient lithography machines, not to mention the high-end market, and even the mid-end market has no sense of existence.


The first game: Nikon ’s high-rise building, Asmeyer guests, American building collapsed

The lithography machine can be simply understood as a “super super super super … super high” precision camera, which projects the designed circuit on the silicon chip.

At the same time, Dutch lithography giant ASML ASML occupies a 63% market share, and the products are concentrated on mid-to-high-end extreme ultraviolet lithography EUV and deep ultraviolet lithography DUV .

However, before 2004, Nikon was a well-deserved leader. Not only did Asmail sit firmly in the cockroach, but also the United States, the originator of lithography technology, gradually withdrew from the semiconductor lithography market.

At that time, Nikon, which had been proud of it, had always used lithography machines as its core product, and it was also the “national light” that Japanese companies were proud of. Even when it was possible to go to Nikon for research and development of lithography machines at that time, it became one of many Japanese The vision of a great youth.

The foundation of ASML is not good. 20 years after its birth in 1984, ASML has been a mysterious existence, and no one will think that ASML can have a future, even including themselves.

In the early days, ASML was also called ASM. There was no hope of survival. I could only recognize the godfather everywhere. In the end, only Philips moved my heart, and got a few simple factories for ASML in the empty space next to the trash bin next to the headquarters building. That kind. The most annoying thing is that Philips has no plans to give any money. ASML has n’t done anything except for meals. Basically it has come to sell, squat, and grab orders. Anyway, you can imagine the sales methods ASML has used, and you can live for 20 years. “Sales Craft” .

Magically, This “craft” actually became the key to ASML’s summit in the future.

After 20 years of hard work, ASML finally waited for their first nobleman- TSMC ’s ghost talent Lin Benjian , a character who can stand up to Zhang Zhongmou. If Zhang Zhongmou created TSMC in the first 20 years, Lin Benjian would make a huge fortune for TSMC in the next 20 years.

Lin Benjian was born in Vietnam in 1942, Taiwanese, Chinese, and his ancestral home is Chaoshan, Guangdong. Lin Benjian received his Ph.D. in electrical engineering from Ohio State University in 1970 and was elected to the National Academy of Engineering in 2008. Before joining TSMC, Lin Benjian was engaged in the research and development of imaging technology at IBM for 22 years. He was the world ’s top lithography expert .

In 2000, Lin Benjian joined TSMC at the invitation of TSMC R & D Director Jiang Shangyi at the time and started a truly “sturdy life”.

In the last few years of IBM, Lin Benjian has actually seen the arrogant IBM building in the lithography field will be tilted. He hoped that IBM would give him 1/10 of the X-ray lithography technology developed by the lithography department at that time to “do something”. However, because of its Chinese identity, IBM did not intend to buy it.

Lam Ben-jin later recalled: “I judged the 65-nanometer (dry lithography) stage, let me look forward to the words of the third generation , I can no longer see it. “

So when many people were caught in X-ray lithography technology, they could n’t help themselves, Lin Benjianyi invested in the research of Immersion lithography technology without looking back.

Finally in 2002, he has joined TSMC to develop a 193-nm immersion lithography technology using water as a medium. That is, in 2002, the death penalty of the past dry lithography machine was proclaimed.

The immersion lithography technology allowed Moore ’s Law to continue to extend, and TSMC later led the competition for more than 5 years.

However, the emergence of any disruptive new technology will always be subject to huge resistance from traditional forces. Lin Benjian’s immersion lithography was almost blocked by all giants such as Nikon, Canon, and IBM . Nikon even put pressure on TSMC to request to hide Lin Benjian.

The decline of giants is always the same. At that time, Kodak produced the first digital camera, but Kodak made a decision because of the fear that the digital camera threatened its film business-certainEUV, its own net profit is less than 22%.

If the overall price is reduced by 20% due to competition, ASML will face a loss. When ASML and Nikon both suffered losses due to price cuts, both brothers would lose their R & D and production motivation. The entire industry drank northwest wind directly.

The entire industry can only afford one master . Or ASML is very clever in the “customer joint program”, in fact, he is very aware of his arrogant existence. Sacrificing Japan is not only a political decision, but also an economic decision.

But the whole event has a fate, and this fate really determines the fate of the lithography machine.

Success politics, defeat politics, will be the fate of the lithography machine.

This fate is China.

China has a strong demand for equipment, and we want to buy an EUV without having to, it is already a limitation.

And the United States has finally realized that his potential challenge in the semiconductor field is neither Europe nor Japan and South Korea, but China.

However, the entire industrial chain has become the current pattern. De-globalization will inevitably collapse the entire semiconductor industry. The semiconductor industry is closely related to the military industry of a country.

The United States is in a dilemma. On the one hand, China needs to be contained, and on the other hand, it cannot be contained through commercial means. Eventually, it can only be achieved through political means.

Once political means are adopted, all countries with a “one-vote veto power” will nervously consider whether to “break the net.” Big Brother is no longer a good man. Who can guarantee that he is not the next China?

EUV is too advanced, so advanced that if we can buy it in the next 5 years, we can guarantee the development of the semiconductor industry for at least 10 years. According to the custom of the Wassenaar Agreement two generations later than the most advanced equipment, China will be a very difficult opponent to control.

ASML is obviously intended to sell, the Dutch do not want to be the United States to balance China’s cannon fodder.

In any case, the N-2 generation cannot buy it, and the N-3 generation can always buy it. ASML also has to eat, or should you buy more in the US? But your US Intel will either be difficult to produce at 10nm, or GlobalFoundries will give up 7nm research and development …

The capital bureaus of large technology countries have reached a critical point, whether to restrict China ’s purchase of equipment to become