The impact of the epidemic on the consumer finance industry is staged. In the medium and long term, the industry’s upward trend remains unchanged.
Editor’s note: This article comes from the WeChat public account “Jiugua Financial Circle” (ID: jiuguajinrong) author: Bin. p>
Author: Bin (Wuhu Branch of Bank of Communications, nine laps Gua financial columnist) span>
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Editor: Yan Shijie p>
In 2019, China ’s total retail sales of consumer goods was 41.2 trillion, an increase of 8% year-on-year, and consumption contributed 57.8% to economic growth, driving GDP growth by 3.5 percentage points. It has been the first driving force for economic growth for six consecutive years. However, due to the impact of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, consumption as one of the “troikas” of economic growth has been greatly impacted. The total retail sales of consumer goods in the first quarter of 2020 was 7.86 trillion, a significant decrease of 19.0% year-on-year, which also had a negative impact on the consumer finance industry. deep influence. p>
As the domestic epidemic prevention and control situation continues to improve, the previously suppressed and frozen consumption is released again. The new consumption and upgraded consumption that have been spawned in the epidemic prevention and control have brought new opportunities for commercial banks to develop consumer finance opportunity. p>
According to a report released by the Ministry of Commerce, it is expected that by 2020, the scale of China’s consumer finance market will reach 12 trillion yuan, with a market penetration rate of 25.05%. Judging from the penetration rate, the penetration rate of the US consumer finance market exceeds 40%. China’s consumer finance is still in the early stages of development, and there is still room for growth. p>
Consumption changes in the post-epidemic era h3>
Online consumption has grown significantly strong> p>
According to statistics, the online retail sales of physical goods accounted for 20.70% of the total retail sales of social consumer goods in 2019, about 8.52 trillion. If online service consumption is added, the scale of online consumption will be even greater. The online retail sales of physical goods are expected to exceed 10 trillion this year. During the epidemic, more commodities were sold through online channels, and the “live broadcast with goods” transaction was hot. Local government officials also joined online live broadcasts to start “Internet celebrities” to promote local specialty commodities and promote consumption recovery. p>
Consumer consumption, mainly in the healthcare and health industries, has increased substantially strong> p>
Affected by the epidemic, consumers are paying more attention to health and medical care, and healthy consumption is emerging. Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that in the first quarter of 2020, per capita spending on washing and hygiene products increased by 27.2%, and spending on medical equipment such as masks increased4.2 times longer. In addition to anti-epidemic necessities, from the perspective of e-commerce data, air purifiers, sterilization dishwashers, sterilization dryers and other healthy life appliances are popular, health products and nutrition products are sought after, sports bracelets, health monitoring products and other sales Hot. p>
Digital economy promotes upgrading of consumption methods strong> p>
During the epidemic, a large number of service consumption based on big data, artificial intelligence, cloud computing and other digital technologies moved to the cloud. Online consultation, online education, online travel, online fitness, and remote office began to become daily life during the epidemic. In the post-epidemic era, on the one hand, consumers ’online consumption habits have continued; on the other hand, more service consumers are expected to use the Internet platform to guide consumers to use both online and offline channels to change their consumption habits and improve Consumer experience, promotion of consumer upgrades. p>
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Source: National Bureau of Statistics p>
The impact of the epidemic on consumer finance h3>
In 2010, China ’s first batch of three BOC, Beiyin and Jincheng consumer finance companies were approved by the China Banking Regulatory Commission to prepare for the establishment. After 10 years of development, 25 consumer finance companies have approved the opening of the business. Among them, there are 17 banks whose major shareholders are banks, accounting for 68%, and state-owned large banks, joint stock banks, and city commercial banks all participate. According to the data disclosed in the 2019 annual report, the total assets of the industry are nearly 500 billion yuan, the average revenue is 3 billion yuan, and the average net profit is 300 million yuan. The head effect is beginning to emerge. The impact of the epidemic on the consumer finance industry is staged. In the medium and long term, the industry’s upward trend remains unchanged. In the short term, the impact is mainly reflected in several aspects: p>
Front-end customer acquisition strong> p>
Some customers’ income has been reduced due to the epidemic, and even because of unemployment, there is no income, resulting in weak consumption. The demand for durable consumer goods such as automobiles and household appliances in the field of traditional consumer finance has decreased significantly. Due to home segregation, consumer finance demand for cultural tourism is also nearly stagnant. This may force the entire consumer finance industry to migrate to customers with greater risk tolerance and lower pricing. p>
Mid-end operations strong> p>
At this stage, consumer finance mainly relies on business personnel to perform a series of tasks from product development to customer marketing to risk identification and loan collection. Traffic control and isolation measures during the epidemic affected the employees of the consumer finance industry to resume work. Therefore, it puts greater pressure on mid-range operations, especially call centersPost-management and other personnel-intensive business continuity is greatly affected. p>
Back-end risk control strong> p>
Due to the epidemic, some users ’income, solvency, and repayment willingness will be affected, leading some users to take this opportunity to escape debt. In addition, due to travel restrictions, repayment convenience and other aspects will also be affected to some extent, these factors will raise the industry’s non-performing rate, and bring challenges to consumer finance risk control. p>