This article comes from the WeChat public account: Netease Research Bureau (ID: wyyjj163), the header picture is from Dongfang IC, the original title is “He Keng: Set GDP Target No Significance, China’s economy actually has a turning point in March “

In 2020, the new crown epidemic has an impact on the world economy, and the current global epidemic has been basically controlled. But has the world economy adapted to the fluctuations caused by the new coronary pneumonia shock? How will the world economy develop in the future? The Netease Research Bureau recently interviewed He Keng, Deputy Director of the 11th NPC Standing Committee and Deputy Director of the Finance Committee .

The following is a compilation of interviews:

How to treat the impact of the epidemic on the world economy

Netease Research Bureau: The spread of the epidemic has affected the world economy. What is your basic view of world economic development? Where is the bottom of the economy?

He Keng: I am generally optimistic about the future trend of the world economy. This may be quite different from some economists. Because of the impact of the New Crown New Crown epidemic on the economy, my starting point is different. General economists analyze the new crown epidemic from the perspective of economic crisis, but I think the impact of the new crown epidemic on the economy is external, not a problem within the economy, and the impact on the economy is temporary, not long-term.

When I chatted with some colleagues, I said that the impact of the new crown epidemic on the economy is like the impact of the typhoon on the ecology. Last year, “Mangosteen” landed in Guangdong. That night, the place where I lived when “Mangosteen” landed was almost swept away by it. But he got up for a walk the next morning, calm and calm. Looking at this street scene again, it was devastated, the trees were broken, and even a few trees were uprooted. Seeing that scene, I thought it would be impossible to recover in ten or eight years. However, when I went to Shenzhen again half a year later, I could hardly find any trace of the destruction of the “Mangosteen” at that time. The trees affected were trimmed and raised by garden workers, and then they became lush again.

I think that the impact of the new crown epidemic on the economy is almost the same as the typhoon’s damage to the street scene. It is an external force. Therefore, after the new crown epidemic has passed, the economy should not need to take a long time to return to its original position. If the original economy of the country is no problem, it will be no problem after being restored by the “economic garden workers”. If there are economic problems, the new crown epidemic will not be resolved afterwards, and may even worsen, and it can only be managed according to the original plan.

The world economy has no major problems before the epidemic, so I am more optimistic about the world economy. It now appears that I am more optimistic about the world economy. Because of the “remedial measures” adopted by countries around the world, I think it is very effective. Some people are very worried that the United States’ “helicopter money” measures will cause inflation and even financial crises, I think not. The measures taken by the United States have no major problems. If you think about it carefully, the United States makes sense. Because the outbreak of the New Crown epidemic caused psychological panic for investors, the U.S. stock market plummeted, and it melted four times in less than 10 days. Therefore, some economists are pessimistic and worried about the 1929-style economic depression. At that time, I thought that this analysis could not be done, and that the 1929 economic depression was unlikely.

It now appears that the measures taken by the United States are more in line with national conditions. Due to the relatively effective measures, the financial market soon stabilized. Now the new crown epidemic in the United States is also stabilizing, and the US government is also considering speeding up the resumption of production. Therefore, I don’t think the US economy will have much problems.

Netease Research Bureau: How will the world economy recover in the future? What do you think?

He Keng: I do n’t think these types are right. I describe the economic recovery after the new crown epidemic. It should be similar to the check mark the teacher gave to the students when they approved their homework. The stroke I wrote was very steep, and it was very fast, with obvious influence. But when it rises, it will not be too slow, the side where the check mark is picked up, the slopeIt is also relatively large. I think the economic trend after the new crown epidemic is probably in the form of a “check mark”.

China ’s economic data for the first quarter was not very optimistic, and the figures for March were relatively better. Someone asked me when the inflection point will appear in the Chinese economy. I said that the inflection point has already appeared in March and is now slowly climbing up the slope. The speed of climbing depends on the “trimming” measures of our “garden workers”.

Netease Research Bureau: Some scholars worry about whether the epidemic will rebound, will this cause another economic shock? What do you think?

He Keng: No one can say whether the epidemic has rebounded. But I am still optimistic about the development of the epidemic situation. I think it should be similar to general infectious diseases, it is a “self-limiting disease”, and it has its own process and law of occurrence and development. In March, I once called on not to be so pessimistic about China’s epidemic situation, which is not conducive to resuming production. In fact, the inflection point in China on February 5th has already appeared. Later, because Hubei Wuhan changed coaches, a new inspection method was used, that is, CT inspection. More than 10,000 new suspected cases suddenly appeared that day. But I think that this is statistically a “wild point” or “singular point”, a point that is not within the law. I concluded that the epidemic in March was a stable period, and the epidemic should end in April. And now that April is indeed not completely over, it is mainly because I did not expect the epidemic situation in foreign countries to be so serious, and the number of imported cases to China has increased. The measures we have taken are very effective, and the problem is not great. Now the domestic epidemic is coming to an end. My judgment at the time believed that China’s economy should be on the rise in the second quarter. This estimate is not wrong at the moment, and the data may not be as optimistic as imagined at the time.

NetEase Research Bureau: The epidemic has basically been brought under control and entered the platform stage. Do you think the world economy has adapted to the fluctuations caused by the impact of new coronary pneumonia?

He Keng: I do n’t think the economy has adapted to the new crown epidemic, the economy and the new crown epidemic are still two different things, and no one will “adapt” to anyone. Because the new crown epidemic situation has stabilized, people’s panic has gradually settled down, and it is hoped that the requirements for resuming work and production will become higher and higher. Coupled with effective measures taken by the government, the economy has slowly recovered.

I am afraid that the measures of the United States are much greater than those of China. Some people worry that the United States will release so much water. Will there be problems? I am not worried about this issue. The Fed’s increased liquidity was calculated and calculated by many experts. And their implementationIt’s an asymptotic approach, watching the water while watching it, not flooding it all at once. I appreciate their approach, which is relatively safe.

On March 11, the Wall Street stock market closed down sharply, from Oriental IC

More important is to see whether the assets in the Fed ’s balance sheet expansion are “hard” and the credit is not high. I think their credit is relatively high, as long as there is no problem at this point, it will not cause major problems. Some people worry about causing inflation, and I do n’t think this will happen. Because the Fed’s money is mainly used to buy bonds and stocks, and it has not entered the personal consumption link. Therefore, it is unlikely to have any impact on the market. Therefore, I don’t think there is any need to worry about inflation.

However, the US Congress passed a 2.3 trillion fiscal resolution, and it is said that it is still adding 3 trillion yuan. I am a little worried about this situation, because the money will enter the market. The money will either be used to subsidize employees and residents who are in difficulty, or be used to subsidize enterprises in difficulties to ensure the resumption of work and production. 2.3 trillion is equivalent to about 10% of the annual GDP of the United States. This amount is already very large. I think it can basically hedge the losses caused by the epidemic. If you add another 3 trillion yuan, there is a possibility of inflation. I think this point, they should strengthen their analysis, and we should pay close attention to it. At that time we may want to prevent imported inflation.

NetEase Research Bureau: Is quantitative easing policy in the US currently the best bailout plan?

He Keng: Large-scale quantitative easing in the United States is indeed a big move, but China may not be able to follow it. Because China’s institutional mechanism and strength are different from the United States.

While affirming their relief measures, I also have concerns about the problems they may cause. I do not advocate that China is like the United States because the conditions of the two countries are different. China’s supervision mechanism is different from that of the United States. How the US uses fiscal money requires parliamentary consent, while China lacks supervisionGovernor ’s hard constraints. Therefore, the Chinese government should promote a tight life and use money according to actual needs. The fiscal prosperity must also have a degree.

In my opinion, among the “six guarantees” advocated by the government, the sixth guarantee is to guarantee grassroots operations. At the grassroots level, there are actually problems with financial difficulties. I feel that at this time, we must consider the issue of reforming government agencies, we must keep the troops down and simplify administration, and this problem must be continuously resolved.

Netease Research Bureau: Compared to the crisis of 1929, how did this year ’s economy overcome the vulnerability of the world economy? How do you view the anti-fragility of the economy? How to increase the resilience of the economy?

He Keng: The impact of the new crown epidemic on the world economy is fundamentally different from the Great Depression of 1929. Although the United States has economic problems, it is not as serious as before. The Great Depression of 1929 was a problem of the economy itself. The income distribution gap was very large, the consumption capacity was very low, the production was excessive, financial speculation was great, and the stock market bubble was huge. These problems stack up, and the stock market crash triggered an economic crash. It affects not only a country in the United States, but all countries in the world. However, this year’s new crown epidemic did not have serious economic problems. The situation is different from that in 1929, so how to make an analogy?

I think the measures taken may be different in China and the United States. There has been a de-Chineseization in the world, and many countries have followed the United States ’idea of ​​not supporting China, opposing China, and the United States’ attempt to decouple China. For example, the central bank swap currency of the nine countries does not have China, and the currency of the swap currency does not have RMB. So, from all sorts of signs, we should pay close attention to the phenomenon of “reverse China”, which will have a greater impact on China’s economic recovery. But I believe that although there are more difficulties, the recovery time may be slightly longer. China’s final journey towards independence and health should not be very far.

Why is the world economy recovering faster than China? I have two main ideas. First, when Chinese media analyzes the world economy, public opinion and even commonly used language are all descriptions that are bad. But in fact, the world’s economic losses are not as serious as the media advertised. The economies of the United States and Japan are currently recovering relatively well. The European economy is also recovering. Although it is a bit worse than that of the US and Japan, there is not much problem. The economies of the “BRIC Five”, India, Russia and other countries are not too big. Therefore, the overall situation of the world economy is better than that of China.

China’s economy has indeed encountered many difficulties, which is related to our macro-control methods. China ’s final demand rate is too low, the capital formation rate is too high,The income gap is large, so domestic demand is seriously insufficient. Adjustment of the distribution structure cannot be accomplished overnight, and it takes time. We always take the growth of GDP too seriously, but we have not seriously managed the era of imbalances in our economic structure, such as relatively reducing some investment, thereby slowly lowering the capital formation rate. Do everything possible to increase residents ‘income, find ways to increase the growth rate of residents’ income growth, and slowly increase the final consumption rate. Efforts to improve the distribution structure of GDP is the only way to “heal the sick.” The resolution of economic problems requires time and solutions.

But we have not noticed this now. Once the economy went down, some people desperately called for more investment, regardless of economic structure and economic problems. Therefore, I think we should clear our thinking very well and slowly adjust our economy. We have some departments that have not played a really good role in these aspects and management.

How to view this year ’s economic situation

Netease Research Bureau: Do you think this year ’s GDP target is still important?

He Keng: The GDP target is not an important issue. For those who study the economy, especially those who have done statistics, I think GDP should be a comprehensive indicator of economic development. This indicator can also be said to be an important economic indicator. Countries around the world use it to measure the level of economic development because there is no better indicator to replace it.

However, the current problem lies in taking GDP as a goal, rather than rationally using what GDP represents and produces to benefit the people. Regardless of the environment and quality, the blind pursuit of higher GDP is better. Provinces and cities compare with each other, and regard GDP as a measure of political achievement. The indicator of GDP is necessary and important. But blindly pursuing GDP and losing direction is harmful.

In February and March, I advocate not setting a GDP target. Because of the epidemic situation, the economy, and the world’s views on China, there are many variables. Therefore, I believe that doing a good job of the “six guarantees” is the main goal of this year.

I do n’t think it makes much sense to set a GDP target. And to what extent this year’s GDP growth can be achieved, although there is a general view, but I am not too sure. The GDP growth rate in the first quarter was -6.8%, the best situation in the second quarter, I estimate that the highest is 2%. It may reach 4% and 5% in the third quarter. The fourth quarter may reachAbout 6-6.5%. In this way, the average GDP growth rate for the four quarters coincides with the World Bank’s forecast of China’s GDP growth rate of 1.2% this year.

So, setting the GDP target is not very meaningful. I hope that through the two sessions, the leaders of the provinces and more than two thousand representatives know in their minds that China’s current main tasks are “six stability” and “six guarantees”, and we must do this well. Doing this job well is more useful than anything.

Netease Research Bureau: What do you think of the employment pressure this year? How to solve the employment problem this year?

He Keng: This year ’s employment pressure is very intense. To achieve job security, the premise is to stabilize the enterprise and support small and medium-sized enterprises. The tax reduction policy should continue to be adhered to, even if the financial situation is no longer difficult. Therefore, stable enterprises should be given top priority.

In the process of stabilizing an enterprise, there should be a guide. Which enterprise absorbs more employment should support it more, and do not “sprinkle pepper noodles”. Which enterprise has a market for its products and can absorb more employees will do everything possible to help it stabilize. To stabilize these enterprises, we must support in capital. It can help it unblock some relationships through loans, help them restore the supply chain, not expand the market, but also help them rebuild the industrial chain. Solving these specific difficulties can make the company’s life better and better.

So now it is not a question of GDP, but a question of how to recuperate. Recuperating is to make enterprises strong and people rich. It may take a relatively long time to do this work. As long as the enterprise is strong and the people are rich, China’s economy will develop very well. China has a population of 1.4 billion. It has great market potential. No matter how difficult foreign trade is, our products are marketable.

NetEase Research Bureau: What do you think about the role of consumption in driving economic growth this year?

He Keng: Among the three carriages driving economic growth, the consumption of residents is the most important. This is not just the case this year. The purpose of production is to satisfy residents’ consumption. Economists seem to have forgotten, what is the purpose of our production, and what exactly do we develop production for?

May 19th, a food stall opened outside a five-star hotel in Wuhan, from Oriental IC

There is no other good way to stimulate consumption, that is, to increase income for residents, especially for those who have difficulty living, to increase their social welfare, so that they have no worries. The income gap is smaller. After the income increases, everyone has the enthusiasm for consumption and the urge to consume. The slower the income growth, the higher the price, the less dare the residents to consume. It is a little difficult to ensure basic life, and it is also empty talk to ask the residents to improve the quality of consumption. Therefore, these slogans are not right.

Consumption is the most fundamental driving force for economic growth. If the consumption of residents does not increase, the investment of enterprises will not expand. Why not expand? What can I do if the products produced by an enterprise cannot be sold at a price but cannot be sold? Therefore, consumption determines the base of entrepreneurs ’investment. Only when residents’ consumption grows will investment really increase.

Foreign trade export is another matter. It depends on the quality of the products, on the reputation and image of China in various countries in the world, and it also avoids the export of some countries led by the United States to China. Hinder. But I believe that most countries are still friendly to China, and Chinese products should still have a market.

NetEase Research Bureau: Which one do you prefer, is to issue consumer coupons and cash?

He Keng: Relative to the issuance of consumer coupons, I am in favor of finding cash directly for residents. Sending money directly to people in need is more effective. Residents can use this money to solve their life problems. He can go to the market to buy what he needs. This is a tangible measure. But what is the consumption voucher issued now? Based on past experience, when we issue consumer vouchers to whom, and only after purchase, we can only buy what and where we can buy. This contains a lot of “greatness” and many restrictions. Practice has proved that this method is not good. We must believe in the masses and respect their personal will.

To distribute cash, the first choice should be those who are unable to find a job or are unemployed. They should be distributed according to their difficulty. Therefore, we should first figure this out clearly, so that we can send charcoal in the snow and distribute it accurately. If we do not engage in formalism, we must also engage in commercial hype.

NetEase Research Bureau: What do you think of the role of infrastructure investment in economic development?

He Keng: For infrastructure investment, I advocate relatively compressing infrastructure. Because our money is always limited, we need money to help the small and medium-sized enterprises that are about to go bankrupt and to help the unemployed and those who ca n’t find work to solve their life difficulties. Both sides need money, and there must always be a major aspect and a minor aspect.

I think that the “Tie Gongji” set should be said to have burned a lot of money. The construction of our highways, high-speed railways and feeder airports is still in the world. But now that it has exceeded the level of economic development, it can be less. As for the concept of new infrastructure, I have read many people’s discussions and still feel that it is not very clear. First of all, the country wants to develop artificial intelligence, I agree with both hands. China is too backward in this respect. To develop the “China Core”, I agree with both hands. This is very necessary to strengthen the staying power of economic development. In addition, I also agree with the development of some relatively backward ones, such as the transformation of transmission grids and the improvement of power development. As for big data and cloud computing, I think we need to really figure it out first, and then do it again. Do n’t speculate on concepts or be fooled by some so-called experts. Therefore, I am not very supportive of this aspect. First of all, I must study it clearly, not figure it out, and rush to build it.

Netease Research Bureau: What do you think of the four trillion stimulus plan that year?

He Keng: I have always been an opponent of the four trillion stimulus plan in 2008. In 2008, I think that the four trillion stimulus plan has “three points” problems.

First, our theoretical research is a bit less. Many formulations have no theoretical basis. At that time, when the economy was clearly going down, “anti-overheating” and “inflation” were also mentioned. Foreign exchange reserves were less than 1 trillion US dollars. There is no performance of in-depth theoretical research.

Second, seeing things late. The Ming Jing is declining but overheated. Many enterprises in the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta closed down or moved out, but they said that they could “cage cages for birds” and could not see the existing problems.

Third, a little anxious. When the US subprime mortgage crisis occurs, it is very urgent. Without calm research, a “four trillion” stimulus plan was issued at once. In fact, the figure of 4 trillion is just an argument. How much trillion has actually been implemented in this four trillion stimulus plan? We are not clear.

So, blind sportsIt is not the only time that the damage to the economy has been brought about by practicing the law. In my opinion, some officials of the management department should sum up a little bit of experience and lessons, do not easily publish trillions of stimulus plans, and be responsible for the consequences. Now the central government also realizes that the reason why our economy is going down is mainly formed by the “three-phase superposition”. In the three-phase superposition, there is a “digestion period” under the influence of previous stimulus policies. Ten years have not been digested, this lesson is not profound?

The current new infrastructure is likely to retake the old path. The reason why I say it is possible is because the scope of the new infrastructure is very complicated. Some of it should be done, some can be postponed, and some can not be done now. To clarify the thinking, do not hype the concept.

NetEase Research Bureau: What do you think of the monetization measures of the fiscal deficit currently debated? Should China implement it?

He Keng: Regarding the monetization of the fiscal deficit, I advocate this approach. I am worried that China’s mechanism is not suitable because China’s central bank is completely different from the Federal Reserve. It is not independent of the government. The Fed is independent of the government and parliament, and is composed of a group of experts with practical experience and high theoretical level, which is not the case with China’s central bank. Since China’s central bank is not independent, when the state’s money is insufficient, it has to issue bonds, which are not bought by social funds, but by the central bank. At this time, the Ministry of Finance is also not responsible for repaying this debt. I am really worried.

In addition, the “People’s Bank of China Law” does not allow fiscal overdraft to the central bank at the legal level. If it is necessary to monetize the fiscal deficit, then the National People’s Congress needs to change the relevant laws. However, China has not yet implemented the conditions for the monetization of the fiscal deficit. Whether it is a legislative issue or an institutional problem formed in the past, I think it is not appropriate to break through now. However, under the current difficult circumstances, monetary policy should be looser and the fiscal deficit should be larger. Otherwise, there are so many unemployed people, so many difficulties facing enterprises, and so much consumption in the process of epidemic prevention. To solve these problems, you always need money. No money is empty.