In the extraordinary first quarter, the financial reports of the three home appliance companies all performed well. Everyone loves to fight for the energy of the back wave, but the strength of the front waves cannot be ignored. Big brother Alibaba holds 130.9 billion in free cash flow and remains a safe haven during the economic downturn. JD.com, the stock price has returned to a historical high. The logistics business that has been heavily invested before has reached the break-even point. Certain scale effects and synergies will make JD.com more profitable. The upcoming 618 consumer stimulus and the secondary listing of Hong Kong stocks will make It can be expected in the future.

Editor’s note: This article is from the Tiger Securities community. The original title was “Tiger Securities: The front wave increased steadily, the back wave sang forward, and the three major e-commerce companies competed.”

“Qianlang” Alibaba and “Houlang” Pinduoduo’s financial report as of March 2020, which was released at the same time today, JD.com also released the first quarter results a week ago. In this special epidemic period, various household appliances Businessmen have carefully lowered their earnings forecasts, and Ali even said that e-commerce business in the first quarter may have negative growth. But after the financial report came out, we saw that the fundamentals of e-commerce were still rock-solid.

First of all, let ’s visually compare the performance summary. Both JD.com ’s performance and profits have exceeded market expectations, and even more Pinduo has become more polarized. Revenues have exceeded market expectations, but losses have also far exceeded market expectations.

JD.com ’s net income for the first quarter of 2020 was 146.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.7%; adjusted net profit was 2.97 billion yuan. During the epidemic, JD.com ’s main 3C e-commerce business was greatly affected, but the daily-use department store business has grown significantly, thereby ensuring stable growth of more than 20%, which is not far behind.

Alibaba ’s revenue during the same period (three months ending March 2020 is Alibaba ’s fourth quarter of fiscal year 2020) was 114.3 billion yuan, an increase of 22% year-on-year; adjusted net profit 229100 million yuan. This is the first time Ali’s revenue growth rate is less than 30%, which is still much better than the company’s previously expected negative growth. Although the income from non-standard items (apparel, etc.) fell sharply during the epidemic, and the platform merchants were given a commission-free period, the platform commission income fell by 2%. But the trade-offs came from Tmall supermarkets, Hema and other incremental parts to be compensated.

Pinduoduo ’s revenue for the same period was 6.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44%. Although the income exceeds the 4.545 billion yuan expected by analysts, the volume of income is too small in front of the front waves, mainly because its single product price is too low and the per capita consumption is too low. Moreover, from the perspective of the 44% growth gap, Pinduoduo is greatly affected by the epidemic, and even more so, the distribution of Pinduoduo ’s platform during the epidemic was greatly affected. In addition, the platform business was also helped by the epidemic. Provided 0 commission to settle. As you can see from the chart below, since the growth rate fell below 100% in the previous quarter and fell below 50% directly in this quarter, is it just the impact of the epidemic or is it normal in the future? Whether Q2’s growth rate can recover has become the key.

Revenue was 6.54 billion, but Pinduoduo ’s quarterly loss was as high as RMB 4.1 billion, which was more than double the loss of RMB 1.87 billion in the same period last year. The loss is much higher than the market expectation is due to the implementation of “10 billion subsidies” in the end! In the first quarter, the marketing expenses of Pinduoduo reached as high as 7.3 billion yuan, and the ratio of market expenses to revenues exceeded 100% again. It had been below 100% for three consecutive quarters.

Despite this, Pinduoduo still enjoys a competitive market value with JD. Both are currently around US $ 74 billion, mainly due to one of the core indicators of e-commerce: annual active consumers (that is, in the past 12 months The number of users who shop at least once on the platform), Pinduoduo performance is too dazzling.

As of March 31, 2020, Alibaba had 7 active consumers in the past 12 months.26 billion, Jingdong is 387 million, and Pinduoduo is 628 million. The 5-year-old “Houlang” Pinduoduo is only 100 million away from 21-year-old Ali, and has left 22-year-old Jingdong far away.

Just looking at the increase in a single season, Pinduoduo increased by 42.9 million, QD increased by 25.4 million, and Ali added only 15 million due to its large size. This is a special epidemic season. None of the three home appliance manufacturers has slowed down the pace of capturing users. Pinduoduo’s performance in user growth is still fierce. According to this growth rate, catching up with Ali is just around the corner.

In addition, another surprising data of Pinduoduo is its GMV, with consumption amounting to RMB 1.157 trillion in the past 12 months ended March 31, 2020, exceeding RMB 1 trillion in only 5 years. , And did not slow down at all during the epidemic, up 108% year-on-year.

JD.com and Alibaba no longer announce GMV every quarter, and only announce the full-year GMV in the fourth quarter of the fiscal year. This quarterly report is the fourth quarter of Alibaba ’s fiscal year 2020. It shows that the GMV of Alibaba ’s retail e-commerce business as of March 31 is as high as 6.59 trillion yuan. If the GMV is measured by Alibaba ’s entire digital economy, it has exceeded US $ trillion (7.05 trillion yuan), and is the world’s first GMV company with trillions of dollars.

We can only compare GMV of JD.com for the whole of 2019. Since buyer data far exceeds JD.com, the GMV of Pinduoduo is already half that of JD.com. But from the perspective of per capita GMV, there is still a lot of room for improvement.

Overall, in the extraordinary first quarter, the financial reports of the three home appliance companies all performed well. Everyone loves a lot of back wave energy, but the strength of the front waves cannot be ignored. Big brother Alibaba holds 130.9 billion in free cash flow and remains a safe haven during the economic downturn. JD.com, the stock price has returned to a historical high. The logistics business that has been heavily invested before has reached the break-even point. Certain scale effects and synergies will make JD.com more profitable. The upcoming 618 consumer stimulus and the secondary listing of Hong Kong stocks will make It can be expected in the future.

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