Video screenshot of the China Macroeconomic Forum (CMF) Hot Issue Seminar

At the China Macroeconomic Forum (CMF) seminar on hot issues on May 23, Zhang Xiaojing, deputy director of the Institute of Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that the arrangement of fiscal and monetary policies in this year ’s government work report indicated that China ’s macroeconomic policies are Pay more attention to it, and it is currently controllable. For job security, we must first solve the problem of survival of enterprises, and relevant departments must increase tolerance for the bad debts of small and micro enterprises.

This year ’s government work report mentioned the need to innovate monetary policy tools that directly reach the real economy. Many experts believe that this means that China will increase the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in the future, for example, financial institutions create policy tools specifically for small and micro enterprises, and directly lend to small and micro enterprises and the real economy.


Zhang Xiaojing speaks

Zhang Xiaojing also mentioned that this It also means that China’s fiscal policy and monetary policy will be more closely integrated this year, while active fiscal policy will play a greater role.

This year ’s government work report pointed out that the deficit rate is planned to be arranged above 3.6%, the fiscal deficit scale will increase by 1 trillion yuan compared with last year, and 1 trillion yuan will be issued to fight against epidemics Special national debt.

Zhang Xiaojing said that China ’s debt growth rate in the past five years is about 11.7%. If we continue to maintain similar debt levels this year, assuming a nominal GDP growth rate of 3% , According to his team ’s calculationAs a result, China’s total leverage ratio will increase by about 20% this year, which is acceptable. This is due to the policy space left by our stable levers in the past few years, and now the government ’s arrangements for this year ’s deficit rate and deficit scale also reflect a relatively sufficient risk awareness, which will leave policy space for the future.

“Why is risk awareness useful? Measured by the marginal capital-output ratio, China ’s marginal capital-output ratio has been declining since 2016, which means production Efficiency is rising, which has a lot to do with China’s deleveraging and stabilizing leverage policies. “Zhang Xiaojing said that at the same time, China’s TFP (total factor productivity) went from falling to rising in 2016, which shows that controlling risks will not only leave room for policy, It also creates conditions for improving production efficiency.

Zhang Xiaojing believes that the “six guarantees” can be summarized as “protecting people’s livelihood” and “protecting the economy”. First of all, the normal operation of the economy must be guaranteed, and the “survival or survival” The problem of “destroy” allows the people and economic entities to maintain the foundation for the next step of recovery and development.

In terms of job security, Zhang Xiaojing stated that the main body of the insurance market is the first priority, and the first thing is to “retain the green hills.” Some flexible employment policies, such as Chengdu, allow temporary booths and night markets to be set up in certain areas. Temporary employment promotion policies such as “street stalls” will bring new vitality to the recovery of the market.

For supporting the development of small and micro enterprises, Zhang Xiaojing said that the country ’s “blood transfusion” efforts to support small and micro enterprises will definitely be strengthened. In this process, he called on the banking sector and financial supervision The department must further tolerate the “bad debts” of small and micro customers, which is an important cost input to protect people’s livelihood.

For the first time in this year ’s government work report, there was no specific target for annual economic growth, Zhang Xiaojing said that the current curve of China ’s economic recovery actually depends on the epidemiological curve As the epidemic economics needs to cross-over comprehensive judgment, China still has more uncertainties about economic growth and expectations.

“We have to consider whether all difficulties have passed now, and we may still be under pressure from the second outbreak of the epidemic and import cases.” Zhang Xiaojing believes that our country this year There will also be more uncertainties in foreign trade and other aspects, “can’t finish all the bullets.”

Therefore, the government ’s work arrangements this year will focus on employment, people ’s livelihood, and poverty alleviation, which will keep China ’s economic fundamentals and leave enough room for future development.

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