Source | Economic Observer (ID: eeo-com-cn)

Author | 杜 涛

Head map | Graph insect creative

The 2020 budget report under the new crown epidemic has many more different contents than in previous years: the issue of anti-epidemic special treasury bonds was 1 trillion yuan, the special debt amount reached 3.75 trillion yuan, and the deficit rate exceeded 3%, which is planned to be 3.6% The above arrangement, the amount of up to 3.76 trillion yuan ……

This is some of the key figures in the “Government Work Report” of the two sessions on May 22. At the same time, the “Government Work Report” also proposed that the proactive fiscal policy should be more active and promising, and the scale of the fiscal deficit increased by 1 trillion yuan over last year. If you add special anti-epidemic government bonds, there will be 2 trillion yuan of special needs funds this year. All of these funds will be transferred to the localities, and a special transfer payment mechanism will be established to reach the grassroots of the city and county. These funds will be mainly used to protect employment, basic people’s livelihood, and market participants, including support for tax and fee reductions, rent and interest rate reduction, and expanded consumption. And investment.

These are only a part of China ’s fiscal expenditure in 2020. According to the data of the implementation of the central and local budgets in 2019 and the draft of the central and local budgets in 2020 (hereinafter referred to as the budget report), the central and local budgets and the national general public budget Revenue of 1802.7 billion yuan, plus the transfer of funds and the use of carryover balance of 299.8 billion yuan, total revenue of 2102.5 billion yuan. The national general public budget expenditure was 24.785 trillion yuan (including the central reserve fee of 50 billion yuan), and the deficit was 3.76 trillion yuan, an increase of 1 trillion yuan from 2019.

In addition, the total revenue of government funds nationwide is 129126 billion. The national government fund budget expenditure was 12,612.3 billion yuan, the national state-owned capital operating budget expenditure was 261.4 billion yuan, and the national social insurance fund expenditure was 8,228.4 billion yuan. This means the entire fiscal year 2020The income of the “four books” budget expenditure reached more than 45 trillion yuan . Where will such huge fiscal expenditure go? With a total deficit of over 8 trillion in special government debt and special debt, what impact will it have on the economy?

In 2020, the national ledger not only reflects the budgeted income and expenditure. According to the progress of fiscal and tax reform, 2020 will be a year of basically establishing a modern fiscal system. What changes will the fiscal and tax reform have?

Yang Zhiyong, a researcher at the Academy of Economics and Social Sciences of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Economic Observer that through the government work report, it can be seen that this year ’s fiscal policy requirements must be strong, while ensuring fiscal sustainability. For the first time this year, the deficit rate in the budget exceeded 3%, and the newly added deficit and special anti-epidemic government bonds were all allocated to local finances. This shows that the central government attaches great importance to the status of local financial operations. In the “six guarantees”, the basic level of protection of the people’s livelihood is guaranteed by the local government, but the problem of local government’s disposable financial resources and development issues is attracting more attention from the central level.

Gao Ruidong, chief macro analyst of Guotai Junan Securities, believes that this year ’s deficit rate is planned to be more than 3.6%, and 1 trillion yuan of special anti-epidemic government bonds will be issued at the same time. It is planned to arrange special bonds of 3.75 trillion yuan. Needs are also an important guarantee for maintaining the overall situation of economic development and social stability.

revenue and expenditure situation

As in previous years, China ’s fiscal budget for 2020 is still divided into “four accounts.” Before 1997, the Chinese government had only one account book for the general public budget. At that time, 13 government funds were included in the budget, and the government account book became two. In 2007, the operating budget for state-owned capital was prepared separately, and the budget report had three ledgers.

The distribution pattern of the four ledgers has been fixed since 2014 and has formed the current situation. The so-called four books mainly include four parts: general public budget, government fund budget, state-owned capital operation budget and national social insurance fund budget. In short, the backbone of the “four books” involves tax and non-tax revenue, land assets, central enterprise assets, and central social security funds.

In the 2020 budget, the revenue of the four books totals 420637.99 billion yuan, which is 210.525 trillion yuan of the national general public budget. The total revenue of the national government funds is 129.126 billion yuan. The national state-owned capital operating budget revenue is 398.499 billion yuan. The national social insurance fund income was 7.7287 trillion yuan.

And budget the expenditure of four booksReached as much as 45 trillion yuan, of which the national general public budget expenditure was 247.585 billion yuan (including the central reserve fee of 50 billion yuan), the national government fund budget expenditure was 126123 billion yuan, the national state capital operating budget expenditure was 261.4 billion yuan, and the national social insurance The fund expenditure is 8.2284 trillion yuan.

On May 22, the Minister of Finance Liu Kun said in the “Minister Channel” answering media questions: This year, affected by the epidemic, fiscal revenue will decline, and we recommend raising the deficit rate to more than 3.6%, an increase of 0.8 from last year A percentage point, an increase of 1 trillion yuan in financial funds. The central government will also issue 1 trillion yuan of special anti-epidemic government bonds, and transferred nearly 1 trillion yuan in funds from the state-owned capital operating budget. In addition, the scale of local government special bonds will increase by 1.6 trillion yuan.

For the current local financial situation, Liu Kun estimates that the scale of income reduction and expenditure increase will be between 800 billion and 900 billion yuan, and some localities are facing greater pressure to maintain basic livelihood, wages, and operations. In the past few months, the central government has accelerated the allocation of funds for local government transfer payments, while increasing the proportion of local financial funds retained, easing local financial difficulties. On the whole, the operation of local finance is normal and stable.

Shi Wenzheng, director of the Research Center for Fiscal and Tax Law of China University of Political Science and Law, believes that the main concerns in the four budget accounts are the general public budget and the government fund budget. The government fund budget involves special debts, how to use it, and how to pay the principal. Is there any debt risk? The general public budget is concerned with people’s livelihood. “The social security budget has problems of reduction and exemption due to the epidemic situation, so that social security may face some problems in its income in 2020. At the same time, because social security expenditures are rigid expenditures, it is necessary to solve the problem of social security sustainability. As for the state-owned budget, because of the scale Small, not the focus of attention. “Shi Wenwen said.

active finance

In the face of the impact of the epidemic situation and downward economic pressure, the fiscal policy in 2020 will be more active and promising. On May 14, 2020, the website of the Ministry of Finance published Liu Kun ’s signed article “Positive Fiscal Policy Must Be More Active and Promising”, pointing out that the proactive fiscal policy is more proactive and effective. By appropriately increasing the deficit rate and issuing special anti-epidemic bonds 1. Increase the scale of local government special bonds, consolidate and expand the effect of tax reduction and fee reduction, etc.

This year’s “Government Work Report” subsequently stated that a proactive fiscal policy should be more active and promising. This year’s deficit rate is planned to be set at more than 3.6%. The fiscal deficit scale will increase by 1 trillion yuan compared with last year. At the same time, 1 trillion yuan of special anti-epidemic government bonds will be issued. This year it is planned to arrange 3.75 trillion yuan of local government special bonds, an increase of 1 over last year