Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, May 23, the fiscal deficit increased by 1 trillion yuan, and anti-epidemic special government bonds were issued 1 trillion yuan. As soon as this year’s government work report came out, the two “1 trillion yuan” quickly occupied the headlines of the major media and made a special eye-catching.

Some people have calculated the accounts: after adding 1 trillion yuan, this year ’s deficit reached 3.76 trillion yuan, plus 1 trillion yuan of special anti-epidemic bonds, accounting for about China’s total GDP is 4.1%.

Analysis by domestic professionals, in addition to the deficit of 4.76 trillion yuan for the deficit and special anti-epidemic government bonds, the report also mentioned that it plans to arrange 3.75 trillion yuan of special bonds for local governments. Taken together, the total scale of these policies is about 8.5 trillion yuan in small calibers.

Why should I borrow? Where is the money spent? How to spend well? In a special year, these are all necessary questions for taking good care of the “national account book”.

(1) A clever woman cannot cook without rice.

In 2020, there will be both the hard task of decisively fighting poverty and the hard demand of maintaining employment and stabilizing people ’s livelihood under the impact of the epidemic, but also reducing the burden on the real economy , Strive to expand domestic demand, promote innovation, make up for shortcomings … Every job must not be lost, but every job is “expensive.”

And another fact is that the national “money bag” is also relatively tight this year.

-14.5%, which is the increase in the national general public budget revenue for the first four months of this year.

Some local governments are struggling with finances, and some have encountered difficulties in ensuring the basic livelihood, wages, and operation of the “three guarantees”.

Solving “Where does the money come from?” is a challenge that China must face and a “hard problem” that all countries affected by the epidemic in the world need to answer.

Special measures are required during special times.

The two “1 trillion yuan” are the embodiment of hedging economic and social risks and the proactive fiscal policy “more active and promising”.

Some people must be wondering, why should we choose the policy tool of expanding deficit and debt scale? Zhang Lianqi, member of the Standing Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, believes that to expand domestic demand and stimulate market vitality, structural fiscal policies are more effective than total monetary policies.

“These policies each have a focus, coordination, and comprehensive strength, which can effectively counteract the impact of fiscal cuts and increase in expenditure caused by the epidemic, and support shortcomings and benefit people’s livelihood , Promote consumption, expand domestic demand. “He said.

(2) With the source of funds, it is very important where to spend it.

What is the relationship between the trillions of dollars and the people?

The government work report clearly stated that the two “1 trillion yuan” were all transferred to local governments.

Specifically, a special transfer payment mechanism will be established to allow funds to reach the grass-roots level of the city and county and benefit the enterprises and people directly by “through train”, mainly used to protect employment 1. Maintain the basic livelihood of the people and the main body of the market.

The use of special anti-epidemic government bonds is “as the name implies”-mainly used for local public health and other infrastructure construction and anti-epidemic expenditures.

The issuance of special anti-epidemic bonds is the first time, but special bonds are not new. China had issued 270 billion yuan and 1.55 trillion yuan of special government bonds in 1998 and 2007, respectively.

The so-called “special” is issued for a specific purpose and has a clear purpose.

Special national debt is not included in the fiscal deficit and is included in the national debt balance limit. On the scale of 1 trillion yuan, the issuance period will be based on a 10-year period, and will be issued jointly with the central government bond.

As for the 3.75 trillion yuan local government special bonds, it can be used as capital for major projects, and can also support key projects under construction and make up for short board projects. New infrastructure represented by 5G, a new generation of information networks, smart charging piles, new energy vehicles, and new consumption can all benefit from it.

Here, I think of the addition and subtraction of Finance Minister Liu Kun on the “Minister Channel” on the 22nd:

< / div> This year the country is averageThe public budget revenue is 18027 billion yuan, and the expenditure is 247.585 billion yuan. The extra 6 trillion yuan for each collection is the additional expenditure this year, and it is also the special intention of the two “1 trillion yuan” and other special arrangements.

(3) In 2020, after the increase of 1 trillion yuan in deficit, the fiscal deficit rate is planned to be set at more than 3.6%, a record high.

Someone is worried again, but this year the deficit rate has broken the so-called 3% “international cordon”, is it safe? Is it feasible?

Speaking of this, the industry has always been controversial.

The 3% deficit rate “international warning line” is mainly due to the EU ’s financial access conditions for member countries. The fiscal deficit must be less than 3% of GDP. The government debt balance must be less than 60% of GDP.

However, the EU also agrees that member countries are not subject to this restriction when facing a severe economic recession, and temporarily exceeding 3% is also allowed.

What is the fact?

Those who are concerned about the world economy will find that the deficit rate of major developed countries has frequently exceeded 3% in recent years, and it is not surprising that the high reaches double digits. Especially this year, affected by the epidemic situation and the world economic and trade situation, the global fiscal deficit rate and the level of public debt have increased significantly.

According to IMF predictions, the global average fiscal deficit rate will increase from 3.7% in 2019 to 9.9% in 2020, which is higher than the peak during the international financial crisis. For example, the US deficit rate will rise from 5.8% to 15.4%, and France from 3% to 9.2%.

Experts pointed out that each family has its specific situation. In today’s complicated situation, it is difficult to regard the 3% deficit rate as an international standard.

Objectively speaking, each country should have a warning line that is in line with its actual deficit rate, taking into account economic development, price levels, debt balance, policy orientation, etc. This measures the level of debt.

“China ’s deficit ratio and government debt ratio have always been relatively low in the world economy, and it is feasible to raise the deficit appropriately and expand debt., The risk is also controllable. “Luo Zhiheng, former assistant dean of Evergrande Research Institute, said.

” True gold and silver “is not easy to come by, and it must be managed well.

The extravagance and waste of money should never be spent, and the money that does not have performance should never be spent. If you spend it, you must be accountable in accordance with the law and regulations, and you must firmly adhere to the bottom line of not experiencing systemic risks. >

In a word, save Yumin. The “money bag” is tight, the government will have to live a “tight day”, and spending money will require careful planning before the people can live a “good day” “.

(The original title” Two “1 trillion”, what is the special meaning? “)