“Insist on the positioning of the house for living, not for speculation, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market according to the city’s policies.” This is the statement about “housing” in this year’s government work report. It is understood that this is the second time in the government work report that “housing and housing is not speculated”, and again “housing and housing is not speculated”, which is not mentioned in 2019.

The outside world cares, what are the considerations behind this statement? What impact will it have on the real estate market, will housing prices fall or rise?

The main theme of housing and housing is not changed

At this year ’s two sessions, the government work report emphasized, “Insist that the house is used to live, not Used for speculative positioning. “

Experts pointed out that the central government has repeatedly emphasized that the signal transmitted by” housing and housing is not speculation “is that this will be China ’s real estate for a long time. The main tone of market regulation, on the one hand, strengthens the positioning and function of house residential products, on the other hand, it weakens and weakens the hype function of its investment products, which is conducive to reducing real estate financial risks and promoting the stable and healthy development of the property market.

As far as the residential function of real estate is concerned, Zhao Xiuchi, vice president and secretary general of Beijing Real Estate Law Society and professor of Capital Normal University, said that China is still in the accelerated stage of urbanization . The urbanization rate in 2019 is 60.6%. According to conservative estimates, about 12 million people enter the city every year, so the demand for housing in cities and towns continues to increase. On the one hand, there is a need to solve the housing problem for new residents, on the other hand, there are still many gaps in the housing needs of the original urban population. In order to meet the residents’ desire for a better housing, as the urban population continues to increase, the supply of housing must continue to increase until the urbanization goal is completed, this trend will not change.

From the perspective of speculation risk, the real estate market is currently facing “three high” risks. First, high house prices; second, high inventories; third, high leverage. At the end of 2019, the balance of personal housing loans was 30.07 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.7%. Excessive housing credit not only overdrawn the purchasing power, but also squeezed other consumption.

Yan Yuejin, Research Director of the Think Tank Center of Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute, said that although the real estate market is facing great pressure, it is still necessary to insist on housing and housing. All parts of the country are also actively controlling the real estate business, especially the intermediary business, indicating that price stability and transaction stability are still the basic policy guidance.

Zhao Xiuchi believes that under the positioning of “no housing, no speculation”, the competent departments and localities must not only strictly control real estate speculation through system design, but also vigorously develop the leasing market, and establish a simultaneous rent-purchase The housing system empowers tenants, increases support for individual landlords and rental agencies through tax relief, increases the supply of rental housing, and reduces the pressure on the housing market to purchase.

More emphasis on the flexibility of urban policies

This government work report also puts forward, “in accordance with the city”.

Yan Yuejin said that the two sessions will reiterate the “in-city policy”, which means that they hope that all localities will decide on specific implementation policies based on the actual situation of the property market and provide local governments with loose policies More space. In fact, land transactions and housing transactions in various parts of the country are very weak this year. Policy relaxation is necessary everywhere. Only when market transactions are stable can the property market develop better. It is expected that the probability of policy relaxation will increase after the two sessions.

Zhao Xiuchi said that the next step is to implement the main responsibility of the local government, because only when the local government has a better understanding of the local situation can it be able to implement policies based on the city and balance supply and demand. Relationship to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.

Judging from the central layout, it is not a matter of sitting around and letting the locals make decisions at will.

According to the deployment of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, it is currently advancing the construction of a nationwide network.

refers to the establishment of a real estate market monitoring system based on the registration data of housing nets in various places to provide data support and decision-making basis for real estate market regulation and control, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. The municipal and county housing and urban-rural construction departments shall improve the housing net signing and filing system in a timely manner, and carry out the housing net signing and filing work in a unified process in accordance with the requirements of the housing net signing and filing business operations, and obtain and upload transaction data in a timely manner to realize the construction of new commercial housing and stock housing nets. Full coverage of signing and filing.

Zhao Xiuchi said that for the localities, the online signing system can more accurately grasp the local housing information, and then formulate the correct real estate control policies to stabilize the society It is expected that its policies will be more targeted. For the central government, the construction of a nationwide network is conducive to the central government’s supervision of local property market regulation, as well as a more comprehensive grasp of the national property market dynamics and monitoring and judgment of the market from the national level.

There is still a lot of room in the real estate market

This year ’s government work report also pointed out that “promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.”

Yan Yuejin said that the real estate development goal is still stable and healthy development. As far as the current property market is concerned, market transactions are weak, property market speculation is still high, and some loan funds continue to enter Real estate, this is the content that needs to be focused on in the follow-up.

Yan Yuejin said that in comparison, “not using real estate as a short-term stimulus to the economy”, “implementing local government ’s main responsibility”, etc. were not included in this time The reports of the two conferences have also enabled localities to make greater efforts in balancing real estate and macroeconomic relations and encouraging local governments to stabilize real estate.

Zou Linhua, leader of the Housing Big Data Project Team of the Institute of Financial and Strategic Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told China News Weekly that while maintaining stable market development, the epidemic situation As a result, the basis for a sharp rise in house prices this year does not exist.

This time, the government work report also proposed, “Deeply promote new urbanization and give full play to the leading role of central cities and urban agglomerations. Improve convenience facilities and make cities more suitable for business Livable”.

Zhao Xiuchi said that this is also a major pulse in the property market. In the construction of new urbanization, the development of urban agglomerations is very important, and the development of urban agglomerations can have an effect of 1 + 1 greater than 2. In the development of urban agglomerations, each city should find its own position and develop in a dislocation with the central city and other cities in the urban agglomeration to support each other. Therefore, urban agglomerations should plan their urban agglomerations well, determine their respective industrial development positioning, and then determine the jobs that each city needs.

Yan Yuejin said that similar expressions for improving convenience facilities were relatively few before, which has two important meanings. First, urban development is not limited to housing construction, and more emphasis is placed on livability. Subsequent supplementary shortcomings are an important content, especially in urban public facilities and other aspects will be strengthened, including the transformation of old communities, etc. are important points of effort . Second, the city ’s functional positioning is more clear, and “livable and livable” has become the key. It is expected that urban construction will receive more financial support, especially in terms of greening rate improvement, new infrastructure construction, and public medical and health facilities. Force, which also has a positive effect on real estate development.

(Original question:” What does “policy by city” mean, will house prices fall or rise? “)