On May 27, the Academy of Economics and Social Sciences of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences released the Weifang Comprehensive Index for April 2020. Data show that in April this year, the transaction volume and prices of second-hand houses in core cities (mainly first and second-tier cities) rebounded rapidly, and rents Decline faster. Housing prices in third- and fourth-tier cities fell overall.

Zou Linhua, the leader of the big data project team of the Institute of Financial and Strategic Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that according to the general analysis logic, the decline in rents and the rise in housing prices indicate that the risk of real estate bubbles is increasing . But whether the market risk can be controlled depends on the housing prices and rent trends in the second half of 2020.


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House prices in core cities across the country have risen and rents have fallen rapidly.

Data shows that house prices in core cities across the country have rebounded rapidly and hit a new high in a year . The Weifang Core Index, which reflects the overall changes in housing prices in 24 core cities across the country, shows that in April 2020, the comprehensive housing prices in core cities were already higher than the highest prices in the whole year of 2019, but still lower than the prices in mid-2018. In April 2020, the Weifang Core Index was 107.01 points (in January 2018, the core city comprehensive house price was 100), an increase of 0.54% from 106.43 points in March 2020, and an increase of 1.11% from 105.26 points in April 2019.

Although house prices are rising rapidly, housing rents in core cities are falling rapidly.

The Weifang Rental Core Index, which reflects the overall change in housing rents in 22 core cities across the country, shows that housing rents in core cities have declined rapidly in the past 2 months, which is in line with housing prices Divergence. In April 2020, the core index of Weifang Rent was 102.6 points (compared with the core city comprehensive rent in January 2018 of 100), a decrease of 0.57% from 103.19 points in March 2020 and a decrease of 1.46% from 104.12 points in April 2019.

According to the data of the ten major cities in the country, the transaction volume of second-hand housing has also increased rapidly. The transaction index of second-hand housing in 10 key cities is 222.93, an increase of 40.8% from 158.37 in March 2020.Exceeded the volume level before regulation in 2017.

Zou Linhua and the Weifang Index Research Group believe that the rapid rebound in second-hand housing transactions in core cities and the “rigidity” formed after the market suspension and recovery affected by the epidemic in January and February Demand cumulative effect. The second-hand housing transaction volume is expected to fall in the second half of the year.


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House prices in the first-tier cities are rising rapidly, and house prices in the third- and fourth-tier cities are slightly falling. House prices rose faster, but house prices in third- and fourth-tier cities fell slightly.

The Weifang City Gradation Index, which reflects the comprehensive housing prices of cities at various levels, shows that compared with March 2020, the Weifang First-tier City Index increased by 1.5% in April 2020. The rate of increase is relatively fast.

Specifically, compared with March, house prices in the four first-tier cities of North, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen all increased in April 2020. Among them, Shenzhen (2.36%), Shanghai (1.68%), and Beijing (1.29%) all had a month-on-month increase of more than 1%, and the growth rate was relatively fast. Guangzhou rose 0.17% month-on-month, and the market was relatively stable. For the first time in three years since Beijing ’s housing prices have been quiet, prices have risen rapidly for the first time.

Compared with the same period of last year, the housing prices in Shenzhen and Shanghai in April 2020 are higher than the levels a year ago, while the housing prices in Beijing and Guangzhou are still lower than the levels a year ago. Among them, Shenzhen rose 14% year-on-year, Beijing fell 4.03% year-on-year, and Guangzhou fell 4.74% year-on-year.

In addition, the index of second-tier cities rose by 0.3%, and the market was relatively stable. The third- and fourth-tier cities fell slightly, of which the index of third-tier cities fell 0.1%, and house prices in fourth-tier cities fell 0.18%.