At 24:00 on the 28th, a new round of price adjustment windows for domestic refined oil will open. Up to now, domestic oil prices have been suspended for four consecutive years due to the “floor price” mechanism. The agency expects that this round of high probability will still trigger the protection mechanism without adjustment.

After entering May, the supply and demand situation in the international crude oil market continued to improve, and crude oil prices showed an upward trend. On May 27th, the price of light crude oil futures delivered by the New York Mercantile Exchange in July rose by 1.1 US dollars to close at 34.35 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 3.31%. The price of London Brent crude oil futures delivered in July rose by 0.64 US dollars to close at 36.17 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 1.80%.

According to a Reuters report on the 26th, four people familiar with the matter said that Russian Energy Minister Novak discussed with the major oil companies later Tuesday the implementation of the OPEC + agreement. Three of the sources said that Novak also intends to discuss the possibility of extending production cuts beyond June.

According to Reuters on the 27th, there are signs that oil-producing countries are complying with their commitments to reduce crude oil supply, and as global anti-epidemic embargo measures are relaxed, fuel demand increases . In addition, OPEC + countries are scheduled to meet again in early June to discuss maintaining production cuts to support oil prices.

Longzhong Information estimates that although the international oil price rebounded in the current cycle, it is still below US $ 40 per barrel. The protection mechanism is a high probability event. Will continue to run aground.

The Sino-Singapore Jingwei client card found that since the beginning of this year, domestic refined oil prices have undergone nine adjustments, presenting a “3 downs and 6 stranded” pattern, with gasoline and diesel prices separately Cumulatively lowered by 1850 yuan / ton, 1780 yuan / ton.

It is worth mentioning that, starting from the price adjustment window on March 31 at 24:00, domestic refined oil prices have triggered the “floor price” mechanism four times in a row and stranded. Looking back on the past, in the fall of international oil prices in 2016, domestic product oil price adjustments had been suspended for six consecutive times due to the “floor price” mechanism.

Li Yan, an oil analyst at Longzhong Information, said that from the retail perspective, the current oil price in many places is maintained at the “5 yuan era”, 92 # of Sinopec Gas Station in Shandong The prices of 95 # and 95 # gasoline are respectively 5.48 and 5.88 yuan / liter, and private car owners can refuel according to the actual situation.

The next round of price adjustment windows will open at 24:00 on June 11, 2020.The improvement of both ends of the supply and demand, the oil market is moving towards rebalancing, but uncertainties in the supply and demand side still exist. Li Yan believes that the recent rebound in international oil prices has continued, but it is still doubtful whether it can quickly rise above $ 40 / barrel. It is expected that the next round of product oil price adjustments may not be adjusted due to the trigger of the protection mechanism.

(Originally titled “High probability of five consecutive stops! Domestic oil prices are expected to continue to maintain the” 5 era “)