During the two sessions this year, real estate taxes and long-term mechanisms are not as hot. The government work report reiterated that “housing and housing are not speculation”, and “implementing policies according to the city” is included in the report. Faced with the pressure of economic operation, the central government has kept its real estate regulation and control, insisted on the basic theme of “no housing, no speculation”, and insisted on the return of housing to residential properties.

As the domestic epidemic situation is effectively controlled, the real estate market is in a recovery channel. Recently, some urban land markets have become more popular. The industry believes that the introduction of targeted policies will not be ruled out in the future To promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.


Reiterate that “housing and housing are not speculation” and emphasize the flexibility of urban policies

This year ’s government work report states, “Insist that houses are used to live, not Used for speculative positioning, according to the city’s policies, to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. “

This is the first time since the government work report in 2018 that” housing is not speculating ” It is not mentioned in 2019, and it is reiterated in 2020 that “housing and housing are not speculation”. The industry generally believes that this position is very firm, and the government is determined to ensure the stable and healthy development of the housing market.

Reviewing the government work report of the past three years, it was proposed in 2018, “Insist on the positioning that the house is used for living and not for speculation, implement the responsibility of the local main body, and continue to implement Differentiated regulation and control, establish and improve the long-term effective mechanism, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. “It is proposed in 2019,” Better solve the housing problem of the masses, implement the responsibilities of the city, reform and improve the housing market system and security system, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. . “ It can be seen that the government work report on real estate itself The ink is getting more and more streamlined, and it also reflects the long-term adherence to the positioning of “no housing, no speculation”. It is worth noting that, compared with the past, this year, “information by city” was written into the government work report, and “implementation of city main body responsibilities” was deleted.

China Index Research Institute analysis pointed out that since the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, many cities have adopted flexible policies based on the city, and have introduced real estate regulation and control policies from both ends of supply and demand, which has started to stabilize the real estate market. To the important role, in addition, Guangzhou, Jinan, Qingdao, Leshan, Chifeng and other over 10 cities have introduced policies to relax purchase restrictions and loan restrictions and have been withdrawn. In the future, under the general tone of “no housing, no speculation”The policy will be more flexible to ensure the smooth operation of the real estate market.

“The frequent policy release from January to April has become the biggest feature, and most of them belong to bailout companies and bailouts. At present, the policies to reduce the down payment are basically stopped, and the policies to restrict purchases are loose It will also be withdrawn, but part of the policy of subsidizing home purchases will still have an impact on the market. “Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, said that this means that real estate regulation will continue to maintain the previous high temperature. The central government’s determination to curb excessive housing price growth will not change. “From a policy perspective, the trend of slight loosening of real estate regulation and control in cities with stable house prices will continue in 2020.”


The shed reform curtain falls and the old residential area reforms proposed goals

Since this year, the central government has repeatedly emphasized the need to strengthen the stock housing renovation at important meetings Promotion to improve the living conditions of residents. The government work report further clarified the specific goals: “New construction started to renovate 39,000 old town communities, support the installation of elevators, and develop diverse community services such as dining and cleaning.”

The Middle Finger Institute pointed out that 39,000 new residential communities have been newly renovated, involving nearly 7 million residents, a doubling of last year. The intensity has increased significantly. While improving the living conditions of residents, it can also expand domestic demand. Promote effective investment. In 2020, old communities will focus on renovating and improving community support and municipal infrastructure, and improving the level of public services such as community pension, childcare, and medical care. In the process, it has also created conditions for the involvement of enterprises, especially property service companies and markets. The space will also be further expanded.

For the transformation of urban shanty towns, this year ’s government work report did not mention it, but this year is the end of the new three-year shed reform plan. The overall shed reform still has a certain volume, which may be significantly lower than originally planned. The special debt for shed reform was resumed, but it was limited to projects already under construction. The proportion of superimposed monetization resettlement dropped significantly. The support of the shed reform on the real estate market was significantly weakened, or more efforts were made in the field of infrastructure investment.

“The 2020 shed reform is not mentioned, the curtain of the shed reform has fallen, and the next step will focus on the transformation of the old community.” 58 Anju Guest House Research Institute The president of the branch, Zhang Bo, believes that “more real estate participants are needed to join this field. The content includes updating water and gas facilities and supporting facilities, supporting the installation of elevators, improving the convenience market, convenience stores, pedestrian streets, parking, etc. Convenient facilities to make the city more livable and liveable. “ relaxed monetary environment to curb the bubble of real estate financialization
< div class = "contheight"> Economic Daily News-China Economic Network reporter noticed that compared to previous years, this year ’s content on real estate is not much, the real estate tax, long-term mechanism, provident fund and other keys that are generally concerned by the outside world before the meeting The words were not mentioned in the government work report. In particular, regarding the real estate tax legislation process, the words “steady advancement” and “steady advancement” were used in the government work reports of 2018 and 2019 respectively.

Zhang Dawei interpreted that without mentioning these keywords that the market had worried about before, it was good for the real estate market.

In terms of macroeconomics, the government work report puts forward, “A sound monetary policy should be more flexible and appropriate. Comprehensive measures such as lowering interest rates, lowering interest rates and refinancing will guide the broad money supply The growth rate of the scale of social financing is significantly higher than last year. Maintaining the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level is basically stable. Innovating monetary policy tools that directly reach the real economy, we must promote enterprises to facilitate access to loans, and promote continued interest rate decline. “

“The future monetary policy is expected to continue to be loose, and for the real estate market, it will also benefit from ample funds. From the perspective of mortgage data, the impact of interest rate cuts has gradually appeared, and the interest rate cuts on April 20 have basically landed The first and second suites of mortgages have been lowered by more than 10 basis points. In 2020, real estate is expected to reduce costs, whether it is a developer ’s corporate financing or a personal mortgage loan. ”Zhang Dawei said.

Analysis of the Middle Finger Institute also believes that for the real estate industry, benefiting from a looser monetary environment, the company ’s domestic financing has improved slightly, and financing costs have fallen. At the same time, home buyers The cost of home ownership has also been lowered. The improvement in the supply and demand of funds at both ends has certain support for the real estate industry. Real estate investment can maintain rapid growth and can be expected to promote macroeconomic stability. In addition, under the goal of “employment protection”, the expectation of a significant decline in residents’ income may be eased, which will also be conducive to market stability.

On May 26, the head of the relevant department of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission said that there are nine priorities for preventing and mitigating financial risks this year, one of which is to firmly implement “No speculation” requirement, continue to curb the bubble of real estate financialization.

“The stability of the real estate itself plays an important role in economic stability. House prices, land prices and expected stability can effectively implement economic stability. It is expected that there will be no excessive stimulus policies for real estate this year, and stability remains the top priority.” It is pointed out that a stable monetary policy will be more flexible and appropriate. Measures such as quasi-rate reduction, interest rate reduction, and re-loan will promote enterprises to obtain loans conveniently and drive interest rates to continue to fall. However, the financial control of the real estate industry will remain relatively tight, and it will strictly control the irrational flow of funds into the real estate market.

(Original question: “What does it mean that the” long-term mechanism “of” real estate tax “is not mentioned in the two associations, will house prices rise?”)