This article comes from the WeChat public account: Yuanchuan Technology Review (ID: kechuangych) , author: Lize Hao, from the title figure: vision China
Even before May, there were 8 accidents involving electric vehicle fires.
Every time an electric car burns, it is handing a knife to a fuel car. It repeatedly reminds users who are full of hope for new energy: You are not driving a car, it is a time bomb.
Who made the electric car a large “lighter”? The vast majority of the spearheads are directed at the battery. In mid-May, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued three expedited documents and imposed a series of “clamping spells” on electric vehicles.
This “critical 5 minutes”, which is related to the life of the owner, depends on a key component system-thermal management.
How important is this set of parts? What kind of technological path is currently being taken out? Who are the competitors on this track? Please see the detailed analysis below.
Heat management, new wine in old bottles
What exactly is the “thermal management system” managing?
According to the literal meaning, I also guessed that thermal management is the regulation of cold and hot cars. This system can adjust the working temperature of various parts of the car according to the driving environment of the car, so that each device can maintain the optimal operating temperature. Save fuel and reduce wear on cars.
In traditional fuel vehicles, the thermal management system has been developed for more than ten years, the technology and products have matured, and the market structure is also quite stable. The upheaval in the industry and the turnaround have all occurred after the development of new energy vehicles.
Compared with traditional cars, new energy does not require an engine, which increases the cooling requirements of the three electric systems of battery, motor and electric control.The two parts of the air conditioning system and battery thermal management.
schematic diagram of typical new energy thermal management (source: Guoyuan Securities)
There is no need to say more about the air conditioning system. Every summer, “our life is given by the air conditioner.” At present, new energy vehicles focus on the use of scroll-type electric compressors for cooling; in winter, because they are not like fuel cars. For heating with self-produced heat of the engine, new energy vehicles should use PTC (external heating thermistor) electric heater label = “Remarks”> (There are also more potential heat pump air conditioners) for heating.
In addition to providing people with the right temperature, thermal management should also take care of the power battery, a baby who is afraid of falling in his mouth and falling in his hands.
The new energy power battery has two mountains: high temperature in summer is easy to spontaneous combustion and low temperature in winter is not going to go up. Both problems depend on the performance of the battery thermal management system to keep the power battery at 20 ° C ~ 35 ° C. Efficient working interval is the core mission of battery thermal management.
In the matter of how to cool the battery, there are also technical paths. At present, battery thermal management is divided into three technologies: air cooling, liquid cooling, and phase-change material cooling. The technical paths are different. The new energy vehicles on the market have their own choices according to the configuration.
Among them, the effect of air cooling is poor, but the low cost is the choice of nearly half of new energy vehicles; liquid cooling has high cost and technical requirements, and the heat dissipation effect is better. It is a domestic plug-in hybrid and high-level pure electric. The first choice for cars and overseas key models is also the main trend in the future; disguised materials are still in the research and development stage and have great development potential.
Power Battery Thermal Management Technology Route (Source: Guoyuan Securities)
Since the beginning of 2019, under the general trend of automobile electrification, Chinese car enthusiasts have increasingly accepted electric vehicles, and the performance requirements for electric vehicles have become more and more delicate.
The thermal management system is related to key indicators such as car comfort, safety and energy consumption. In addition, this system has a high value volume and a large room for growth, and has become a favorite in the automotive industry.
Traditional automobile has a set of internal combustion engine thermal management system. The value of a bicycle is about 2200 yuan. After replacing it with a new “charged” system, the whole is a lot more expensive.
First of all, the overall value of the air conditioning system with electric compressors and PCT heaters as the core has increased by 1500 ~ 1800 yuan. If in the future, the “mainstream halo” heat pump system is added, this number will rise.
Another core component battery thermal management system, krypton gold is also needed to upgrade. The parts on the cooling plate such as the battery cooler are the most important part of the money burning, which will bring about a value increase of about 1170 ~ 1470 yuan.
In addition to other indispensable parts such as electronic water pumps and electronic expansion valves, the total of zero and zero, the prospective research institute has made a conclusion:
Compared with traditional thermal management products, the new energy thermal management system has increased the value of bicycles by three times to more than 6,400 yuan with the addition of equipment such as cooling of three electric systems and heat pump air conditioning.
Guoxin Securities analysis, the domestic thermal management system market size will reach 11.3 billion yuan in 2020, and will soar to 41.8 billion yuan in 2025. Looking at the world, it will be a breakthrough of 100 billion yuan in 2025.
In the eyes of brokerage analysts, Apple redefined smartphones that year, which brought golden industry development opportunities for the industry chain. Sunny Optical on the optical track recorded a 200-fold increase in stock prices. Chips, acoustics, connectors, Representative companies such as radio frequency and other circuits have a 20-fold increase.
Tesla, a fuel car disruptor, is also replicating the miracle of Apple ’s industrial chain, and thermal management is a key part of it.
The thermal management of the Nuggets electric car, a pick is going to be directly digging into the mine.
Hundred billion market, new and old players stand at the same starting line
The thermal management of the 100 billion market is in front of us. New and old car companies such as Tesla and Volkswagen continue to stir up the flames. Not only can traditional component giants not help but temptation, new and domestic parts manufacturers are also fighting, and have been monopolized for more than a decade The field of thermal management is about to change.
In the field of traditional automotive thermal management, there have been four major giants-Denso, Hanon, Valeo, and Mahler, and the four companies together occupy 54% of the global automotive thermal management market.
The giants have been intensively cultivating in this field for many years. They have deep technical accumulation, and there is no resistance to turning the bow. In the new energy tide of “oil to power”, the air conditioning system has entered the traditional thermal management giants because of fewer technological updates. Earlier, shift your advantages smoothly.
However, at present, there is no industry standard for the overall plan for new energy thermal management. Each OEM is designing its own thermal management system, and there is a large gap between them. The mainstream development route of the industry is to keep everything in line with Tesla and bind the customized thermal management solutions of each component supplier.
But in the field of battery thermal management, the industry is completely new, and no one can build technical barriers out of thin air. Leading manufacturers also start from scratch. The supply window finally showed a chance.
New energy vehicles and traditional automobile air conditioners (Source: China Industry Information Network, Tianfeng Securities)
Traditional domestic thermal management leaders, such as Yinlun and Sanhua Intelligent Control, have focused on the field of new energy thermal management in recent years and have a strong willingness to transform.
Everyone knows that the new market for thermal management spawned by new energy means re-ranking, and the domestic market has an important position in the global new energy industry. This year’s market size accounted for 44% of the world, and domestic manufacturers encountered Encounter an incredible opportunity.
Compared with overseas leaders, domestic manufacturers are based on the domestic market and have the possibility of overtaking in corners.
Guo Yuan Securities analysis, such a possibility comes from two competitive advantages of domestic manufacturers: one is close to the market, and the other is low cost.
Closeness to the market is naturally a matter of holding the principle that fertilizer and water will not flow outside the field and firmly holding the domestic new energy vehicle fertilizer field in your hands. Driven by the “policy + market”, domestic new energy vehicles account for more than half of the global sales. Local companies have already used the advantage of distance to build a good cooperative relationship with some local automakers.
The low cost is the traditional performance of local parts manufacturers. Relying on the competitive advantages squeezed by the low labor, raw material costs, transportation costs and policy subsidies in the market, local parts manufacturers also have the confidence to fight hard with international giants. With the simple and crude principle of “cheap”, they are naturally able to make a difference. day.