The title picture is from IC photo, this article is from the public accountOriginal, the author is Tao Jin, Assistant Director of the Center for Macroeconomic Research of Suning Institute of Finance
The economic recovery in the second quarter gradually became a monthly trend. The main contradiction in the current macro economy is the recovery rhythm differentiation. Therefore, structural analysis is more important than total analysis. The economy is still seeking balance through factor flows during differentiation, and gradually recovers in this process to form a new equilibrium. The GDP growth rate is expected to be 2%-2.5% in the second quarter, 3%-4% in the third quarter, and 5%-5.5% in the fourth quarter.
First, the production side recovers faster than the demand side. The policy of resumption of production and production in the early stage is progressing smoothly, and the situation of resumption of production and production at the production end is better, but the demand-side recovery rate represented by consumption is slightly slower.
Second, investment recovery is faster than consumption. Fixed asset investment has also recovered quickly with the support of active and promising fiscal policies. The consumption promotion policy generally lacks grasping, and consumption recovery has shown inertia.
Third, there is also differentiation within the consumption, investment, and supply sides. First, the epidemic has exacerbated the differences in supply and demand operations among various consumer industries. Some optional consumer industries have recovered slowly due to the disappearance of demand. Second, real estate investment has little room for expansion, and infrastructure is still the only bright spot for investment. Third, private enterprises and SMEs The profitability level remains good, but the degree of active production is still under pressure.
In the second half of the year, monetary policy shifted from wide currency to wide credit, and the policy tools directly reaching the real economy and small and micro enterprises were frequent, but the marketThere are still major differences in the availability of corporate funds. The fiscal policy will be concentrated early in the second half of the year. One is the concentrated issuance of special national bonds and special bonds, and the other is the formation of physical workload as soon as possible, mainly invested in including science and technology, new infrastructure, urban and rural community construction.
The structural differentiation in the second half of the year put different sectors of the economy at different stages of recovery, recession, and even overheating, and the indicative role of broad-spectrum interest rate asset allocation weakened.
The bond market is still under pressure in the future due to factors such as limited liquidity, weakened interest rate cut expectations, and economic fundamental recovery.
Real economy funds under wide credit conditions have a strong incentive to enter the stock market, liquidity supports short-term sentiment, and mid-to-long term continues to maintain a structural bull market.
Recovery of industrial production stacks up with the global economic restart, and commodity prices still have room to rise. After the liquidity crisis went far, hedging sentiment and capital market leverage operations were normalized, gold returned to the list of safe-haven assets, and gold prices have long-term support.