According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on November 30, the manufacturing PMI in November was 52.1%, which was 0.7 percentage points higher than the previous month, and was above the threshold for 9 consecutive months. Li Xunlei, chief economist of Zhongtai Securities, told News (www.thepaper.cn) that the PMI continued to be strong this month, production and demand have maintained a rapid recovery, and the production value of the production index and the new order index has further narrowed. 
Zhu Jianfang, Chief Economist of CITIC Securities believes , PMI rose more than expected this month and hit a new high this year, reflecting the steady recovery of the economy, the growing endogenous power of the manufacturing industry, and the steadily improving supply cycle.
In November, the various sub-indices of PMI generally improved, the vitality of the manufacturing market was further enhanced, and the recovery growth was significantly accelerated. Among the 21 industries surveyed, the number of PMIs in the expansion range increased to 19, and the manufacturing boom has expanded.
This month’s production needs to work together at both ends. The production index and the new order index were 54.7% and 53.9%, respectively 0.8 and 1.1 percentage points higher than last month, and both rose to the highest point during the year.
Zhu Jianfang said that since March this year, the production index has continued to be greater than the new order index, reflecting the impact of the epidemic, the recovery of the supply side must precede the demand side.
Now the difference between the two has been narrowing month by month since June, from 2.5 percentage points to 0.8 percentage points, indicating that the endogenous power of the manufacturing industry has continued to increase and the supply and demand cycle has continued to improve .
From the perspective of the industry, the production index and new order index of industries related to high-tech manufacturing, such as medicine, electrical machinery and equipment, computer communication electronic equipment, and instrumentation are all higher than 56.0%, located in a relatively high economic zone, the release of production and demand has accelerated, and the overall leading role of the manufacturing industry has been further enhanced.
In November, the import and export prosperity rebounded steadily. The new export order index and the import index were 51.5% and 50.9%, which were 0.5 and 0.1 percentage points higher than the previous month. It was the high point during the year and was in the expansion range for three consecutive months, maintaining a monthly upward trend. my country’s imports and exports continued to recover. Li Xunlei said that the overseas epidemic is still at its peak, my country’s export advantages are still continuing, and exports will remain strong in the short term.
Zhu Jianfang believes that the main reasons for the recent increase in manufacturing exports are: first, the gradual recovery of overseas economies and the increased demand driven by Thanksgiving at the end of November and Christmas at the end of December; It is the decline in overseas production capacity caused by the repeated recent epidemics.
“Follow-up, exports are expected to remain in the high-prosperity range before the second quarter of next year.” Zhu Jianfang said that the first reason is that with the continuous advancement of vaccine research and development, The impact of the epidemic is becoming increasingly controllable, and the global economy has entered a recovery channel; second, major overseas economies are expected to adopt further stimulus policies in the short term in the future, and boost demand to drive economic recovery, which will further benefit China’s exports; third, China’s exports since this year The counter-trend expansion has effectively expanded the market share of related industries, and has a comparative advantage over products from other countries. Although overseas productivity is gradually recovering, export substitution still has a certain stickiness.
With the recent general increase in commodity prices and the acceleration of production and procurement activities by enterprises, the purchasing prices of raw materials and product sales in the manufacturing industry have increased significantly this month. The purchase price index and ex-factory price index of major raw materials were 62.6% and 56.5%, which were 3.8 and 3.3 percentage points higher than the previous month, and both were highs during the year.
From the perspective of the industry, the price of upstream products has risen more significantly due to the demand of downstream industries. This month, the two price indexes of petroleum processing, coal and other fuel processing, chemical raw materials and chemical products, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, etc. are both in the high range of 60.0%.
In November, the prosperity of large, medium and small enterprises has rebounded. The PMIs of large, medium and small enterprises were 53.0%, 52.0%, and 50.1%, respectively, 0.4, 1.4 and 0.7 percentage points higher than last month, and all were above the threshold.
The production and operation conditions of small businesses have improved this month. Small businesses that reflect capital shortage accounted for 42.3%, which was 2.6 percentage points lower than last month. Low point. Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician at the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that this shows that the policies and measures introduced in the early stage to help enterprises and financial support for small and micro enterprises have been effective.
The survey results also show that the recovery of the manufacturing industry is still uneven. The PMI of the textile, apparel and apparel industry has always been below the critical point this year, and the industry’s prosperity continues to be weak. In addition, export companies reflect the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuationsEnterprises accounted for 18.8%, 1.7 percentage points higher than last month; some enterprises said that with the recent appreciation of the renminbi, corporate profits are under pressure and export orders have decreased.
“In general, we are still optimistic about the subsequent export boom, but we also need to pay attention to the negative impact of the recent rapid appreciation of the RMB exchange rate and large short-term fluctuations on the profits of foreign trade companies. “Zhu Jianfang said.