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Folding a folding screen mobile phone as a future, or as a virtual currency to hype, will have a great economic risk for future buyers.

Editor’s note: This article comes from Blue Whale Finance , author Yin Jing.

Industry analysts believe that under the superimposed effect of low supply and some users ’enthusiasm for folding screen phones, the phenomenon that the folding screen phone“ sold out in seconds ”has even been fired to hundreds of thousands of high prices. But for consumers, issues such as high prices and immature technology still cannot be ignored.

On the morning of the 22nd, Huawei’s folding screen mobile phone Mate X went on sale for the second time, and the “seconds sold out” situation appeared again. The phone was first launched on November 15th, priced at 16,999 yuan, and it was sold out immediately after the sale. It was even speculated on the second-hand trading platform for 60,000 to 100,000 yuan.

Not only are domestic mobile phone brands sought after. Recently, Samsung’s folding screen phone Galaxy Fold also ushered in the third limited sale. As with the previous two wholesale sales situation, the market response is more enthusiastic, and it will be sold out as soon as it is released. All signs indicate that the folding screen mobile phone is ushering in a wave of snap buying.

Huawei, Samsung, Lenovo and other mobile phone manufacturers have launched folding screen phones. OPPO, vivo, Google, etc. are expected to join this competition next year. Analysts in the industry believe that under the superimposed effect of small supply and some users’ enthusiasm for folding screen mobile phones, there is a phenomenon that folding screen mobile phones are “sold out in seconds” and are even fired to hundreds of thousands of high prices, but for consumers The problems of high prices and immature technology still cannot be ignored.

Folding screen mobile phones have become the mainstream trend, and Samsung and other manufacturers are “heroes competing”

In the past two years, the weak growth of the mobile phone market has made manufacturers eager to seek new new growth points, and the “folding screen mobile phone” is an important breakthrough for the manufacturer. It is undoubtedly one of the hottest concepts in the mobile phone field in 2019.

In February this year, at the Mobile World Congress, Samsung and Huawei respectively launched the folding screen phones Galaxy Fold and Mate X. However, both of these phones encountered the test of screen structure and other issues, and the official launch time was delayed. According to media reports, Samsung Galaxy Fold folding screen mobile phones can be purchased without a reservation in South Korea, and 500,000 units have been sold worldwide.

Motorola, a subsidiary of Lenovo, also recently released the Razr series of folding screen phones overseas, which looks exactly like Motorola V3. It is the first smartphone on the market to use an upside-down and inside-folding screen. Moto Razr is priced at US $ 1,499 (approximately 14,000 yuan) in the international market and is expected to be available in January 2020.

At the end of October 2018, Rouyu Technology released the Royal Pai folding screen mobile phone, which uses the inward folding folding screen to become the world’s first mass-produced folding screen mobile phone. The starting price is 8999 yuan.

Samsung, Huawei, Lenovo, Rouyu Technology have all launched folding screen phones, and Xiaomi, OPPO, vivo, Google, TCL and other manufacturers are also deploying folding screen phones.

IT Internet observer Major General Ding believes that manufacturers are focusing on the deployment of folding screen mobile phones on the one hand for the accumulation of related technologies, and on the other hand, from the perspective of shaping the brand image, 5G and folding screens are used to enhance the brand image , In order to play a role in brand sales and market expansion for the sales of other terminal products.

In the research report, Xingye Securities said that this year is the first year of folding screen mobile phones, but the market will officially start after 2020. Market research agency HIS predicts that from 2019 to 2021, foldable mobile phone shipments will be 1.5 million, 8.3 million, and 17.5 million, and will climb to 53.4 million by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 81%. The penetration rate is about 3.4%. Huawei’s folding screen mobile phones use flexible OLED folding screens, and domestic panel makers are expected to benefit first.

Domestic companies, including BOE, Visionox, and Tianma Microelectronics, suppliers of Huawei Mate X flexible screen AMOLED products, are also investing in OLED production capacity, but Samsung currently accounts for The rate is over 90%.

As of press time, there have been nearly 250 user reviews of the Huawei mate X exclusively sold on Huawei’s official website. In the purchase consulting section, many users asked for information such as shipments, and customer service said that “there is no relevant information at present, the number of products is limited, please participate in the purchase in a timely manner.” In addition, many users expressed dissatisfaction with the abnormally high price of Huawei Mate X in the second-hand market.

In this regard, Major General Ding told the Blue Whale TMT reporter that the price of Huawei’s mate X has been constantly rising. On the one hand, it is related to the brand. Samsung does not currently have this situation. On the other hand, it is related to Huawei’s special domestic market positioning. .

Of course, being fired at such a high price does not rule out the possibility that an ox wants to take the opportunity to earn the difference from the middle, but such a high price is not in line with market rules. Folding a folding screen mobile phone as a future, or as a virtual currency to hype, will have a great economic risk for future buyers.

High prices and immature technologies cannot be ignored

Folding screen phones have both the portability of a bar phone and the larger screen of a tablet. The screen ratio has doubled or more directly. The folding methods that have appeared at present are divided into internal folding, external folding, downward folding and the like.

However, the high price and immature technology are almost two key keywords for the development of folding screen mobile phones. Industrial Securities pointed out in the research report that many domestic manufacturers have recently released folding screen mobile phones, but there is still room for improvement in terms of price, interface, thickness, software and hardware coordination.

“Overall, folding screen mobile phone products cannot be said to be fully mature. Whether it is the reliability of the screen, the adaptation of software and hardware, and the technology including hinges, it cannot be said that it is fully mature. At present, folding The production capacity of screen phones is also very limited, and the yield rate is still low. “Major General Ding pointed out.

For example, Samsung Folding Screen Phone Galaxy Fold and Huawei mate X are folded inside and outside respectively. Regardless of the folding method, folding screen mobile phones are currently facing problems such as obvious creases and immature hinge technology.

According to the evaluation, the Huawei mate X phone weighs 300g, which is equivalent to the weight of two candy bar phones, and the folding method of the outer folding also means that its screen is easily damaged.

According to Huawei ’s official data, the maintenance price of Huawei Mate X screen components is as high as 7080 yuan, while the 8GB + 256GB version of Huawei MateX currently on sale is priced at 16999 yuan, and the repair price of the screen is almost the entire machine. Half the price is also equivalent to the price of a flagship candy bar phone.

Samsung Galaxy Fold is priced at US $ 1980 (approximately RMB 14,100). According to the Galaxy Fold repair quotation, the cost of replacing the screen is US $ 599 (approximately RMB 4,300), which costs far more than Samsung Galaxy. Note 10+ is 270 US dollars (about 1900 yuan) higher than iPhone 11 Pro Max and iPhone XS Max.

Xian Ligang, a well-known observer in the communications industry, told reporters that the current high level of attention and the strong desire to buy for a considerable number of people are a great opportunity for the development of folding screen mobile phones. For enterprises, if they can make Such high-end mobile phones with high acceptance and energy production are guaranteed in terms of revenue and other aspects.

As for the future development trend of folding screen mobile phones, Sun Yanbiao, the director of the first mobile phone industry research institute, believes that the candy bar and folding forms have always been the two mainstream mobile phones. Folding screen mobile phones will undoubtedly become the symbol of high-end mobile phones .

From the current promotion efforts, folding screen mobile phones will become one of the two mainstreams, but the positioning of the folding screen determines that it is not mainly oriented to ordinary consumers, but is a special feature of the high-end market.Target user group. It is expected that a large wave of folding mobile phones will appear next year, but the price will not be reduced to the point that ordinary consumers can afford it.