After the liquidity continued to be loose in July and dr001 once fell below 1%, how long can the current overnight capital interest rate of about 1% continue and how to continue the medium-term lending facility in August become the focus of market attention< Br > < div class= "contheight" > < / div > Andersen securities expects that the net financing scale of government bonds will increase in August, but the financial force is expected to continue to put liquidity, and the capital may continue to remain loose< Br > < div class= "contheight" > < / div > specifically, the agency believes that in terms of government deposits, it is estimated that the issuance of government bonds in August is about 1trillion, and the issuance of local bonds is about 720billion. Combined with the maturity of government bonds in August is about 1.2 trillion, it is estimated that the net financing of government bonds is around 610billion, an increase from July. On the other hand, the tax rebate has basically ended at the end of July, and the economy continues to repair. It is expected that the decline in the growth rate of fiscal revenue in August will be narrowed, while the current pressure for steady growth is still large. Combined with the “basic use of special bonds by the end of August”, the expenditure side will still maintain a rapid growth rate in the short term. It is expected that the net investment scale of fiscal deposits in August is expected to be around 1.4 trillion. In terms of bank deposit reserve, referring to the historical situation in the same period, the RMB deposit excluding non bank and overseas deposits in August usually increased by 1.3 trillion month on month, and the legal deposit reserve will increase by about 110billion. Referring to the same period in previous years, the demand for cash withdrawal from resident enterprises was not high in August, and M0 and cash on hand may increase slightly. The RMB exchange rate remained above 6.7, and foreign exchange accounted for or flowed out slightly< br>
“Before the market confidence recovers, the capital side is expected to continue the easing trend. With dr001 gradually falling to around 1.0% at the end of July, the interest rate difference between dr007 and dr001 rises to a high level. Therefore, the Central Bank of dr007 is also expected to move down after the next month. Considering that there are 600billion MLF maturities in August and September respectively, and the one-year stock bank NCD interest rate is significantly lower than the MLF interest rate for the same period, the central bank may reduce the reserve requirement in August or September to replace the MLF.” Industrial research points out< Br > < div class= "contheight" > < / div > some institutions believe that the central bank may continue MLF operations in August< br>
“Since July, the central bank’s reduction of reverse repo has caused extensive discussion. We understand that the central bank may gradually adjust its support for liquidity to a relatively normal state based on the mitigation of the epidemic since June and the recovery of high-frequency data. However, the repeated epidemic and the deterioration of real estate market expectations have made the central bank maintain the loose state for a longer time. However, recently, the central bank has further reduced the scale of reverse repo to 2billion, which is still widespread It sends a signal that the current capital interest rate is not at the desired level of the central bank. Although it is difficult for the central bank to carry out a trend contraction at present, it cannot guarantee that the central bank will keep the overnight interest rate at a low level of 1%, and there is a possibility of continued contraction of MLF in August. ” Cinda Securities believes.