In December two years ago, Weilai used a chartered high-speed rail five-star hotel to announce the listing of ES8 in Beijing with a grand conference; in December a year ago, Weilai launched in the drizzle of Shanghai Lili Seen as the reversal of ES6. Now it ’s December again, and the next NIO Day event “NIO Day” (scheduled on December 28) .
In the first year of NIO Day, Weilai had set a preliminary plan for a new car every year. However, in 2019, Weilai also exhibited a preview version of ET7 at the Shanghai Auto Show at the beginning of the year. It was reported that the third model will be delayed in the middle of the year, that is, ET7 will not be the protagonist of this year’s NIO Day. So in the third year, the protagonist of NIO Day became obsessed until the recent spy photos: a new coupe SUV version based on ES6 will be substituted for the stage (tentatively named ES6 Coupe or Coupe ES6) .
(ES6 Coupe spy photos, picture from the Internet)
In 2017, Weilai was bathed in the light of the new car “One Brother”; in 2018, Weilai was under pressure from public opinion; in 2019, Weilai just experienced a round of spontaneous combustion + recall + unsuccessful financing ” Combo boxing. ” The original third car ET7 is based on Weilai ’s second-generation platform, (NP2) , and Weilai ’s recent financial constraints, plus Shanghai The self-built factory plan was cancelled, and the landing speed of the NP2 platform slowed down, which made the coupe version ES6 sit in the third year of NIO Day.
But whoever expects a coupe SUV to come to the rescue is really an unbearable weight in the latter life.
It ’s hard to make money in the market, but it ’s faster and less expensive
What is a coupe SUV? First of all, this is a niche segmented model, in other words, a non-mainstream category that does not use sales as an absolute goal. In the past ten years or so, traditional car brands have changed the roof and rear body into a slip-on style based on conventional SUV models, forming a coupe-like style, sacrificing rear space (mainly head space) in exchange for more personalized Sporty look and character. The figure is the body of an SUV, but the roof line is like a coupe, the so-called coupe SUV.
The coupe SUV originated in the first generation of BMW X6 in 2007. (E71) , the successful innovation of X6 has attracted other luxury brands, Even the popular brands followed suit. Now BMW has X3-based coupe SUV X4, X5-based coupe SUV X6, Mercedes-Benz launched GLC Coupe and GLE Coupe, Audi launched corresponding Sportsback models based on Q3 and e-tron, and Porsche created Cayenne Coupe based on Cayenne. Most coupe SUVs on the market are built based on existing conventional SUVs to reduce investment in design and research and development. Only Lamborghini and other ultra-sport manufacturers may be an exception.
These coupe SUV models have one thing in common: Sales generally have only a fraction of their traditional SUV brother models. It is not that they do not work hard, but that this market segment is so large. (It should be noted that a few models such as the BMW X2 and Audi Q8, although named in the same way as the coupe SUVs of various brands, have not adopted the sacrifice of the head. The slip-back design of the space is beyond the scope of discussion.
Taking BMW as an example, in the first three quarters of this year, X3 sold a total of 230,000 units and X4 sold 44,000 units; X5 sold a total of 116,000 units, while X6 was only 12,000 units. Starting from the first BMW to eat crabs, the coupe SUV has never been a category to carry sales, and no manufacturer will expect such niche cars to take up heavy sales.
In contrast, the role of niche models is to enhance the brand’s and car’s sportiness and style, and to tap the last part of the wandering consumer-they need both the practicality of a five-seater SUV and the desire for a certain personality and uniqueness. , And are willing to increase some expenditures for this (this is the most important) . Generally speaking, the coupe SUV will be a little more expensive than the basic SUV brother models, and the price increase will basically fluctuate between 1 / 8-1 / 10. It is this premium that supports the higher cost of smaller coupe SUV models. It is also this part of the premium (part of it) that supports manufacturers to stay in this market segment destined to make no money.
Whoever expects this kind of niche models can suddenly “explode” out of thin air, can only say that there is too much water in my head, and I suggest that you don’t play in the automotive industry anymore.
At current ES6 monthly average of 2000Even if the sales of around 6 vehicles are optimistically estimated after the launch of the Coupe version, the stable monthly sales of the ES6 Coupe after listing will not exceed three digits. You should know that the current sales of the ES6 are already at a high level of electric SUVs at this price, and they are one of the generals in the dwarf. The ES6 Coupe can only help Weilai to test the edge of the total sales cap. It is powerless for Weilai’s overall situation. In addition to stiffly showing “I am still very good, so that I have the power to make this kind of non-profitable subdivision car”, Weilai’s coupe SUV is only a mere increase in expenditure and useless.
The launch of a coupe SUV as a new car is not bad either. Compared to a completely re-developed new car, retrofitting an existing car with a coupe, the design cost is much lower, and the research and development speed is much faster. The ES6 Coupe can completely follow the main body design of the ES6, and you can change the line of the rear roof of the rear body only by (this is also the number of routes for most Coupe SUVs) ; If you are a little tighter, even the front and rear lights, bumpers, etc., can keep the shape and mold unchanged. The progress of the new model ET7 has been blocked, and it is completely feasible to “catch up” an ES6 Coupe based on the ES6.
(determined ET7 to be postponed)
Learn who don’t learn Tesla
Except for manufacturers such as Lamborghini, which take into account brand tone, when launching SUVs, they will design directly according to Coupe SUVs. Among consumer brands, Tesla is also a special case. Model X and Model Y can be classified as coupe SUVs from the perspective of styling, but Tesla does not model traditional SUVs, only Model XCompete with the Model Y for the SUV market.
But Tesla has always been a special existence. It can be a gull wing door and a seven-seater coupe by its own nature. Model S) , let alone a Coupe roof-shaped SUV. Model Y was originally smaller in volume and space than Model X, but the coupe style of the roof line was more radical than Model X. In this way, Tesla also arbitrarily packed seven seats in Model Y. It can be seen that Tesla’s play is always with some waywardness and pride.
(Model Y)
On the other hand, Tesla’s competitive advantages in all aspects outside the space also allow it to more freely sacrifice some practicality to pursue differentiation and stylization. Model 3 faces over-saturated orders in the early stages of production—capacity is far from meeting demand. If Model Y abandons the coupe shape and changes to a regular SUV image, it will not generate a positive sales promotion for Tesla. effect.
None of these “strange things” are currently in Weilai’s possession. Of course, to be fair, it is not comparable to any other consumer car brands in the world. Tesla and Weilai, one has no worries about sales so that they can let themselves go, and one is more eager to open up sales rather than improve their image Thing) . Tesla’s Model Y chose a coupe model and could not deduce the conclusion that the Coupe version of the ES6 can jump out of the fate of the coupe SUV niche.
The real savior can only be laid down
Tiger sniffed I cleared it a year ago : < strong> Since Wei Lai confirmed the power replacement technology, it was doomed to face the embarrassment of “upside-down battery life” in the early days. The cheaper ES6 has longer battery life than the same battery ES8. Assuming there is a smaller “ES4”, ES6 will encounter the same awkwardness. It is just from the comparison of the current Weilai battery pack size and ES6 body size that in the short term, Weilai will most likely not launch models smaller than the ES6.
Weilai began to deliver ES6 in June this year, and added 84kWh of new battery option for ES8 synchronization. (that is, the optional battery configurations for ES6 and ES8 are exactly the same) . ES6 sales rose step by step until it stabilized at about 2000 vehicles / month, but ES8 sales fell like a cliff: from 1,000 vehicles / month at the beginning of the year to 100-400 vehicles per month.
Under the premise that the battery is the same and the other vehicle configurations are not much different, ES6 is relatively smaller and lighter, Although the price is 100,000 yuan lower than ES8, the mileage is About 20% more than ES8 . With the exception of two less-utilized third-row seats, the ES8 has little advantage over the cheaper ES6. The seven-seat SUV was originally a market much smaller than the five-seat SUV, and battery life is obviously more important than the third-row seat for electric vehicles. There are also people who really need a three-seater electric SUV, but it is much smaller than the five-seat SUV market in which the ES6 is located.Everything.
However, given the current situation in Weilai, the existing ES6 is still tall and widow. It seems that Weilai ’s battery replacement system fixed the battery pack size (at least in the short term) , Weilai is unlikely to come up with a smaller size than ES6 New models, and can only count on tapping the potential of derivative models based on ES6.
But we said earlier that the new sales scale of the Coupe version of up to a few hundred units cannot bring qualitative help to the current situation of Weilai. And Weilai’s hands are not without “deterioration strategy”. Before ET7 arrived to expand the product line, Weilai had another option, called “Single Motor” . When the Tesla Model 3 was just imported into China, the most popular was the rear-drive long-endurance version with the largest battery capacity but a single motor, so it had the best endurance performance.
Either ES8 or ES6, each version currently only provides a dual-motor, four-drive system. The cancellation of a motor will greatly weaken the original high-performance advantages of ES6, but it will significantly reduce costs, lower prices, reduce weight, reduce energy consumption, and improve battery life-except that the four-wheel drive high performance that Weilai has always emphasized is no longer , So that conciseness affects its luxury status, it will obviously help actual sales in the short to medium term.
But Weilai is obviously not willing to come to this step too early, it still wants to do as much as possible