This article is from WeChat official account:LinkedIn (ID: LinkedIn-China), author: James Altucher, translation: Chen Yao, title figure from: vision China
Why do you say “New York is dead”?
I love New York. When I first moved to New York, it all felt like dreaming. Every corner here is like a movie screen, real and full of story.
Every lifestyle I like can be found in New York. I can play chess all day; I can go to a comedy club; I can start a business; I can meet many different people.
In this city, I have family, friends, and countless opportunities. No matter what happens to me, New York is the place to cheer me up.
Now it has completely lost its anger.
“But New York can always be’resurrected from the dead'”. No, not this time.
“But New York is the center of cosmic finance. Opportunities will bring this back to life.” Not this time.
“New York has experienced a more difficult situation than this time.” No, it has not.
Facebo a few weeks agook set up a group, in the group are people who plan to move, everyone in the group communicates and discusses with each other and asks others for suggestions. Within two or three days, this group will have about 10,000 members.
I see more and more posts every day. “I have been in New York for a long time, but this time I have to say goodbye to it.” Every day I read these posts, and then take screenshots of them and paste them into my notebook.
There are several important reasons why people are willing to move to New York.
1. Business opportunities
As the commercial center of New York, Midtown Manhattan (Midtown-Manhattan) is now empty.
Even if people can go back to work, 90% of famous office buildings like Time Life skyscrapers are still empty. Many companies realize that they do not need employees to work in the office.
In fact, if you are not in the office, everyone will work more efficiently.
Time Life skyscraper can accommodate 8,000 people, but now it is estimated that only 500 people work in it.
“What do you mean by this?”
When I told a friend of mine,’Midtown should be called’Ghost City’, he said to me: “I’m in the office of Ghost City now!”
“What are you doing back to the office?”
“I’m packing things,” he smiled as he said, “I’m going to close the door.” He works in the entertainment industry.
Another friend of mine works as the general manager of a large investment bank. Before the new crown epidemic, he was in the office every day, sometimes working from 6 in the morning to 10 in the evening.
Now he lives in Phoenix, Arizona. “Before June of this year,” he told me, “I haven’t even been to Phoenix.” Then he moved there. All his current meetings are conducted on Zoom.
I was chatting with a book editor before, and he has left New York since early March. He said, “We are working very well remotely. I don’t know why we need to go back to the office to work.”
A friend of mine, Derek Halpern, had always believed that he would stay in New York. Until the other day he posted an article on Facebook saying that he might change his mind.
Derek wrote in his article:
“In the past week, I have seen a homeless man lose his mind and start attacking passersby; he spit, throws objects and even hit people at strangers.
I saw several single parents with children asking me for money to buy food. Then, when someone gave them food, they actually threw the food back to the people.
I saw a man shouting racist slogans to people of every race, and then ran away. Then he stopped not far away. “
“I also saw many other things that are more uncomfortable.
I have lived in New York for about 10 years. The situation here is indeed getting worse, and I don’t know when it will get better.
My favorite park is Madison Square Park. But about a month ago, a 19-year-old girl was shot dead across the street for no reason.
Although I don’t have a clear answer yet, I clearly realize: It’s time to move out of New York.
I am not the only one who wants to move out of New York. Just say that in the building where I live, rents plummeted by nearly 30%-more people moved than ever before.
So, although it’s not time to say goodbye, everyone who has been in New York for almost a lifetime is thinking about moving out. “
I chose his post as a reference in the group, but I can also find dozens of similar postsChoose one of the posts.
People often say, “New York has experienced worse things” or “New York will always survive.”
No, not this time.
First of all, when did New York experience the worst situation?
Even in the 1970s and until the 1980s, when New York City was about to go bankrupt, even when it was the crime capital of the United States or was about to become the capital of crime, it was still the capital of the business world(Meaning: it has always been the main place for young people to accumulate wealth and find opportunities).
New York is culturally leading-it is home to many artists, theater, media, advertising, publishing, and even the gastronomic capital of the United States.
New York has never been locked down for five months. There has never been any previous epidemics, wars, or financial crises, never before.
Even during the polio epidemic, when the situation is so critical that many children (including my mother) are going to be paralyzed or die (My mother finally suffered from the sequelae of bad legs and feet), New York has never experienced this.
I am not saying these words to investigate the correctness of what I did in the past. The past has passed. What matters is what we need to do now.
In early March, many people (not including me) left New York. Because they feel that they can temporarily be immune to the virus; and they no longer need to go to the officeBan; all restaurants are also closed.
Everyone thought, “I’ll go out for a month or two, and then come back.” But they haven’t come back yet.
Then in June, during the (Black lives matter) riots and robberies, the second wave of New Yorkers(including me this time) left. I am a person with children.
There is nothing wrong with the protest itself, but when I saw a video of rioters trying to break into my building after the curfew, I still worried that they would harm my family.
Many people leave temporarily, but some people leave forever. After my friend left New York, he moved to Nashville, Miami, Austin, Denver, Salt Lake City, Austin, Dallas and other places.
Now the third wave of New Yorkers is planning to leave. But they may be one step too late. No matter what the real estate companies say, the prices of renting and selling houses in New York have indeed fallen by 30% to 50%.
Rents in second- and third-tier cities are soaring.
I am in South Florida for the time being, although it is possible that I will be here in the future.
I also temporarily booked the house without seeing the house in advance.
Robin was looking at listings near Miami, and then she saw a place we had never been to. We found three houses that we liked. At that time, she was calling the real estate agent to inquire about the three houses we liked.
The first building, which was rented the morning we called, was 50% higher than the original asking price.
The second building, also rented out (also rented by people from New York—”They spent three hours coming from New York, they took a fancy to this place, immediately booked, and then Go back and pack things”).
In the third building, the agent said “this building can still be rented.”
“(this building)We want it!”
The first time we actually saw the house was when we flew here and moved in. “We just live here temporarily, right?” I confirmed with Robin. But… I’m not sure how long I will stay here. I started to like the sunshine a little bit.
I mean, I like curtains to block the sun after part of the heat. I also like the sunlight outside when I am in the air-conditioned room.
But let’s get back to the topic first.
Summarize the situation: Now it’s telecommuting and everyone has not returned to the office.
And this is the beginning of the evil cycle: The longer the office is idle, the fewer people return to the office to work.
In 2005, when a hedge fund manager visited my office, he said: “In Manhattan, there are so many opportunities that you will trip on the street when you walk.”
And now, the streets are empty.
2. Culture
I co-founded a comedy club called Standup in New York, between 78th Street and Broadway Street in Manhattan.
I am very proud of the club and I am very grateful to my boss Dani Zoldan, Gabe Waldman, and manager Jon Boreamayo. This is a great club.
It has been here since 1986, it was just a theater before it became a comedy club. Once, Henry Winkler stopped by to listen to my podcast. He told me that it was a theater before. He said: “I grew up near here and used to perform here when I was young. Then I went to Los Angeles, and now I am back here again, and I came to your place.podcast. Many stories have happened in this place. “
Such things often happen in New York.
When Henry Winkler came to New York Standup, I met The Fonz!
In the past year, Jim Gaffigan, Jerry Seinfeld, Tracy Morgan and many others have been on the stage. There is only one step away from the stage here. Jim Gaffigan fell on all fours as he went up the steps.
The next day, on Seth Miles’ late-night show, Jim said: “I failed at one of the things you should do-I can’t stand up!” (stand-up comedian means stand-up comedian, here is the homophonic stem)
I love this club.
Before the COVID-19 pandemic, I would perform here all week. Of course I will go to other clubs in New York.
In the past few months, I also went to clubs in Chicago, Denver, San Jose, Los Angeles, Cincinnati, the Netherlands and many other cities.
I miss all this.
We areThere is a performance in May, an outdoor performance. Everyone kept social distance, but the police stopped our performance midway. I think it’s because we have been a super (humor) communicator in a special period.
The comedy club is doing some interesting things: They are performing outside the park. This idea is really good.
At such moments, companies need to contribute to the society instead of soliciting and complaining.
In other words, we don’t know when it will open. No one knows. The longer we close the door, the smaller the chance of reopening for profit.
Broadway will be closed until at least tomorrow spring. Lincoln Center is also closed. All museums are closed.
Not to mention that tens of thousands of people have lost their jobs in these places and lost millions of dollars in tourism income.
Here is the entire art ecosystem: thousands of performers, producers, artists, and the cultural centers, productions, and exhibitions that surround them.
Those who have worked their entire lives to get the right to perform on Broadway have their lives and careers put on hold. I know. The global pandemic of the new crown virus is still spreading.
But the question now is: what will happen next?
Considering the uncertainty, none of us really knows the answer. This uncertainty is not a good thing for New York.
At present, Broadway has been closed “at least until the beginning of 2021”, and when it will be restored, it is still far away.
But will it really reopen as planned? We don’t even know.
If it is opened, is it really only possible to have 25% attendance? Broadway can’t hold on like this!
Furthermore, can the performers, screenwriters, producers, investors, lenders, stage artists, and landlords wait for a year like this?
This situation also occurs in New York’s museums, Lincoln Center, and other cultural attractions that millions of people visit New York every year.
How about the hot dog stand outside Lincoln Center?
It was closed long ago.
3. Food
My favorite restaurant has closed.
Let’s come to see my second favorite restaurant. closed.
What about your third favorite restaurant? Also closed.
I think the Democratic Party should provide them with a salary protection plan (PPP). Isn’t it?
What about emergency relief projects? No.
Incentive checks? Unemployment assistance? No, neither was given.
Well, let’s take a look at my fourth favorite restaurant, or the one where I always order takeaways?
No, and no subsidy was given.
In late May, when I was walking, I found many places were covered with wooden boards. I think it was the protest that led to the robbery, and the restaurant was just protecting itself. I think, They will be fine.
I got closer and I sawThe words written on those signs: lease, lease, and many other reasons for closure.
Before the COVID-19 pandemic, each restaurant had only 16 days of cash on hand. Some restaurants had more cash than (McDonald’s), some Restaurants have less cash (local family Greek restaurant).
According to Yelp website estimates, 60% of restaurants in the United States have closed.
I guess more than 60%, but who knows the exact number?
Someone said: “There will be many people who want to open a restaurant now! After all, there is much less competition now.”
Then I don’t think you understand how restaurants work.
Restaurants need to have other restaurants nearby to make business good, which is why there is a street in Manhattan(46th Street between 8th and 9th ) is called “Restaurant Street”. The whole street here is full of restaurants; there is another street called “Little India” and one street called “Korea Town”.
Restaurants are always concentrated in one place, so when people say, “Let’s go out to eat”, they will go to a place with many restaurants, even if they don’t know which one to go to.
If restaurants are no longer clustered together, fewer people will go out to eat. Because when people are hesitant about where to eat, they would rather stay at home. It is the restaurant that attracts more restaurants to gather together.
Also, the restaurants are closed, what should the employees do? They all left and left New York. Where did you go?
As far as I know, many people have gone to Maine, Vermont, Tennessee, the North, Indiana and other places-to return to their parents’ homes or live with friends, or to live in cheaper places.
They will not come back again.
4. Commercial real estate
If the landlord and landlord lose their main tenants(stores on the ground floor, offices on the middle floor, rich people on the top floor, etc.), then they Will go bankrupt.
Then what will happen after they fail?
In fact, nothing will happen. This is bad news.
People who originally rented or bought houses said, “Well, everyone says that New York City is heading towards the 70s, so even if the price may be 50% lower than a year ago, I think I’ll wait. Insurance is better than regret. Good!”
Then as everyone waited… the price dropped.
So when everyone sees the price drop, they will be thankful: “Fortunately, I waited.”
“But if I wait longer, will the house price be lower?” Then everyone will keep waiting and house prices will keep falling.
This is the so-called deflationary spiral. People have been waiting for the reserve price, and the price has been falling even lower.
No one really won in this price tug of war.
Because the landlord or owner went bankrupt. They spend less in New York, and no one has moved to New York, so there will be no movement in the real estate market.
People who already own real estate in the area and have the ability to stick to it have to wait longer for the restaurants and services they are used to returning.
So, will the price be so low that everyone is willing to buy it?
Answer: Maybe. Maybe not.
Some people have the ability to persevere, but not the ability to sell. Some people will go bankrupt and there will be litigation, which will cause other problems for real estate in the area.
Large borrowers and lenders may need some form of bailout or face large-scale bankruptcy.
Who knows what will happen?
5. University education
There are nearly 600,000 college students in New York. From Columbia to New York, to Baruch, Fordham, St. John, etc.
Do college students need to study remotely? Will they go back to campus? The answer is: some will study remotely, and some will go back to campus for classes.
Some universities have to wait a semester to make a decision; some universities use half of the distance-taught and half of the on-campus teaching; some universities let students choose.
But we know that there are uncertainties and mixed factors. I don’t know any university that can fully return to normal.
You might say, this is nothing, the problem here will be solved after one or two semesters.
In fact, it’s not that fast. Assuming that only 100,000 of these 600,000 people have not returned to school and do not plan to rent an apartment in New York City, then many apartments will be left unused.
Many landlords cannot even pay their own bills.
Many people buy these student apartments to make a living. Therefore, landlords, logistics staff, banks, and even professors can’t really stay alone.
In other words, we don’t know what will happen next. But before it gets better, the situation is getting worse.
write at the end
Someone may say, “Okay, okay, but New York will always recover.”
It is indeed.
At 9/11, I lived three blocks away from the World Trade Center site. The city center where I lived was destroyed, but it came alive again within two years.
These sorrows and sufferings quickly made that area the most attractive place in New York. In 2008/2009, during the Great Recession, although we suffered a lot and experienced a lot of difficulties, everything came back vigorously as before.
But…this time is different.
Although this should never be said, this time it is really different. If you believe that this epidemic is no different from previous situations, New York has a strong resilience, etc., I really hope you are right.
Speaking these words will not do me any good.
I love New York. I was born there. I have always lived there. I still live there. I like everything in New York. I want to go back to 2019.
But this time is different.
One reason: broadband.
In 2008, the average bandwidth speed was 3 megabits per second, which was not enough to support Zoom’s video conferencing. Now, its speed exceeds 20 megabits per second. This is sufficient for high-quality video conferencing. Here is a before and after comparison.
Before: Cannot work remotely. After: Everyone can work remotely.
The difference is: bandwidth has become faster, which is already a fact.
People have left New York City and have completely entered the virtual world.
Office buildings no longer need to be filled by employees. Work on Wall Street can now extend to every street, not just a building in Manhattan.
We are officially AB(After Bandwidth): “The Generation After Broadband”. And in the history of New York City and even the world, before that, we were BB(Before Bandwidth): a generation before broadband.
Distance learning, remote conference, remote office, remote performance, remote everything.
This is where we are different. In the past five months, everyone has adapted to a new way of life.
No one wants to fly across the country to participate in a two-hour meeting, because you can do just as well on Zoom. I can watch “Live Comedy” on Zoom.
I can take lessons from the best teachers in the world for free online, instead of spending $70,000 a year with a few teachers with varying levels of teaching.
Now everyone has a choice.
You can live in Nashville, the capital of music, and you can live in Austin, the “next Silicon Valley”. You can live anywhere in your hometown.
You can be as productive, earn the same salary, and enjoy a higher quality of life at a lower cost of living.
Then what will bring you back?
There will be no new business opportunities in New York in a few years. Enterprises will continue to develop, and people will continue to live. For enterprises, remote operation will be cheaper, and bandwidth will only get faster.
When everyone is dispersed from Midtown Manhattan to all over the country, events, meetings, and even office spaces will be moved toOnline.
As talents and technologies from all over the world can quickly find useful places online, the quality of restaurants in second- and third-tier cities will also begin to rise.
The same is true for cultural events.
Then people will ask:
“Wait a minute–I used to pay more than 16% state tax and city tax, but these other states and cities have almost no tax? And I don’t need to face strong>Other headaches in New York?”
New York has a lot of headaches, but we didn’t want to talk about them before.
New York City has a deficit of $9 billion. It was $1 billion more than the mayor expected.
How does a city pay its debts? The most important way is the assistance of the state government. But the state government’s deficit has also reached crazy levels.
The other is taxation. But if New York City is estimated to lose 900,000 jobs and tens of thousands of businesses, it means tax revenues will decrease, unless it raises residents’ taxes.
New York’s source of income-MetropolisIs decreasing, but the deficit is increasing
Next are the tolls for tunnels and bridges. But there are fewer and fewer people commuting.
What about the universities in New York? Fewer and fewer people are returning to universities.
What about property tax? More people defaulted on their property.
Is there any reason people must go back to New York?
I love life in New York. My friends are all over New York, those I have known for decades.
I can walk out of my apartment, cross the street, and perform on stage in my comedy club.
I can take Uber for a few minutes to meet anyone, or play table tennis, or watch a movie, or listen to podcasts. People who travel can also listen to my podcasts.
At night, I can go to my favorite restaurant and watch my favorite performers perform. I can go to the park to play chess and meet friends.
I can fully enjoy everything this wonderful city has to offer.
But all this is now gone.
Original: “NYC IS DEAD FOREVER. HERE’S WHY”
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/nyc-dead-forever-heres-why-james-altucher/
This article is from WeChat official account: LinkedIn (ID: LinkedIn-China) , author: James Altucher, translation: Chen Yao