This article is from WeChat official account:Understand knowledge (ID: mingbaizhishi) , author: understand knowledge er, the original title: “60 years later, OPEC end? “, the head picture comes from: Visual China
After difficult negotiations, in the early morning of December 4th, OPEC(Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC)< /span>The ministerial meeting with OPEC+ is over.
The meeting decided that starting from January next year, member states will reduce daily production by 7.7 million barrels to 7.2 million barrels per day, which is equivalent to allowing each member country to produce an additional 500,000 barrels per day.
As soon as the meeting began, there were dissatisfaction voices. Some countries hope to start oil extraction before oil prices rise to make reserves; some countries insist that production must be reduced, otherwise oil prices will not be able to support the future Up.
Although the member states finally reached an agreement, this meeting also exposed OPEC’s crisis again: OPEC, which was born for the purpose of stabilizing oil prices and coordinating the interests of member states, would not be able to achieve its goals? Survival in name only?
The 13 OPEC member states as of 2020, mainly Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, UAE, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria, Nigeria, etc. Picture source: OPEC
Although in early November, due to Pfizer and other companies successively publishing vaccine research results, oil prices once rebounded; but by the end of November (according to Al Jazeera’s report) ), due to the rapid increase in the number of infections and partial blockades in Europe and the United States, oil prices have fallen below $44 a barrel.
The trend of Brent Crude crude oil prices from 2000 to 2020. At present, if you want to bring crude oil prices back to $40 per barrel, Become a problem. Image source: BBC news
“Foreign Policy” (Foreign Policy) published an article last month “Is OPEC Ended?” 》(Is OPEC Over?) even wrote that OPEC should redefine its role:
“After initial hesitation and major misjudgments, since April, OPEC has reluctantly played the role of market stabilizer to save the oil industry on the brink of collapse. Now, OPEC is overlooking the peak demand. Competition in the energy environment is also much fiercer than in the past. OPEC should put aside its ambitions of being an oligarch and turn to play the role of ballast.”
Speaking of which, this year isOPEC has been established for 60 years, whether it can continue to play a role in the future, and whether the organization itself can continue to exist is a big question mark.
1. OPEC and the beginning of “The Romance of the Three Kingdoms”
At first glance, OPEC’s crisis mainly comes from a direct blow from the epidemic: the epidemic has reduced global economic activity and oil demand has dropped significantly.
But the deeper reason comes from changes in the global energy landscape and OPEC’s own positioning.
On the whole, global oil production is firmly in the hands of three major forces:
The United States and developed countries represented by the United States;
Saudi Arabia and OPEC of which Saudi Arabia is a major member;
Russia, and OPEC+ led by Russia;
In 2018, among the top ten oil producers in the world, Saudi Arabia was second only to the United States. Image source: Statista
As long as we look back at OPEC’s 60-year journey, we will find that a global oil economic history is the history of the “Three Kingdoms” of the United States, OPEC and Russia.
The first half of this history focused on the game between the United States and OPEC.
Although mankind has a long history of discovering oil, it was only after the Industrial Revolution that mankind slowly understood how important oil is.
TodayToday, 90% of transportation energy is provided by petroleum. Petroleum can not only be used as fuel and gasoline, but also provide raw materials for chemical products such as plastics, fertilizers, lubricants, and pesticides.
Until more than half a century ago, in the eyes of people around the world, coal was the most important energy source, and the value of oil was not taken seriously.
The United States first discovered the commercial use value of oil, and it was discovered and utilized in the 19th century, which is nearly 100 years ahead of the world.
In 1870, Standard Oil (Standard Oil) was established in Ohio as a limited liability company, and its main shareholder was the famous John Rockefeller (John Rockefeller).
With its exploitation and monopoly of oil, Standard Oil accounted for 90% of the oil market in the United States in the early 20th century. Rockefeller himself almost became the richest man in history, with at least 4 to 7 times the wealth of Bill Gates.
In 1911, due to public opinion attacks, the U.S. Supreme Court enacted an antitrust law and found that Rockefeller’s company violated the law and split it into 34 companies.
However, even so, the spin-off company still becomes the major major company in the oil market, such as New Jersey Standard Oil, New York Standard Oil and California Standard Oil.
The first two companies later merged into Exxon Mobil(Exxon Mobil), and California Standard Oil later evolved into Chevron(Chevron Corporation).
The cartoons in the early 20th century reflected the impact of Rockefeller’s Standard Oil on various fields in the United States. Public opinion at the time often criticized Rockefeller’s industrial empire. Image source: Wikipedia
During this period, whether it was the automobile (1896) invented by Ford or the airplane invented by the Wright brothers remarks” label=”Remarks”>(1903), petroleum is needed as fuel, which stimulated the demand for petroleum.
At the beginning of the 20th century, in addition to the three Rockefeller companies mentioned above, other companies in the oil field included Shell(Royal Dutch Shell Plc) Four other companies, these seven companies are called “Seven Sisters” (The Seven Sisters).
“Seven Sisters” trademarks, including Exxon, Mobil, Chevron, Gulf Petroleum, Texaco, BP and Shell. Image source: Wikipedia
The United States was the first country to become a giant in oil production and consumption.
Because of this, the technology of global oil extraction is in the hands of the United States. After the 20th century, the major oilfield countries that have successively carried out commercial oil development, whether it is Venezuela or several countries in the Middle East, have limited technology to the United States, and mostly rely on the United States politically.