The “China Housing Development Report (2020-2021)” launched by the Institute of Financial Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences was released on December 21. The report predicts that China’s real estate market is expected to remain stable in 2021, and the year-on-year growth rate of commercial housing prices may decline. At around 5%, the year-on-year increase in the area of commercial housing sales may maintain a positive growth and hit a record high. The
report pointed out that the housing market has experienced a V-shaped change in the past year, which first fell and then rose. The national housing price growth rate has experienced a process of decline, recovery and stabilization. As of November 2020, the average house price has exceeded the 10,000 yuan mark, and the national house price averaged 10,071 yuan per square meter, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%. At the same time, housing sales have reached a new high, and the growth rate of housing development has risen and fallen. However, from a spatial point of view, the overall housing prices have cooled significantly, and the number and rate of increase in housing prices in cities is lower than the same period last year. Among them, the level of housing prices in first-tier cities is significantly ahead of other tier cities. The growth rate of second-hand housing prices in first- and second-tier cities first slowly declined and then rose slightly, and the growth rate of second-hand housing prices in third- and fourth-tier cities has declined. Secondly, there are large regional differences in housing prices, with the eastern region leading, the central and western regions advancing together, and the northeast region being the bottom. The growth rate of housing prices in urban agglomerations has generally slowed down, and the growth rate of central cities has slowed.
For the future outlook, the report shows that in the absence of major policy changes, new external shocks, and a significant improvement in the epidemic situation, the overall property market in China will remain stable, but its structure The sexual potential is still there. It is expected that China’s property market will continue to recover steadily in 2021. It is expected that the real estate leasing market will improve in 2021, and the pace of the guaranteed leasing market will also further increase.
The report shows that China’s property market is expected to remain stable in 2021. On the whole, it is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of commercial housing prices in 2021 may decline and remain at around 5%. The year-on-year growth rate of commercial housing sales may maintain a positive growth and hit a record high. Real estate development investment will also increase year-on-year. The decline has continued to remain at around 7%. In terms of time, in the first half of 2021, the recovery growth will be maintained. The month-on-year growth rate will increase sharply from February to April to April to June, and then to normal growth after June. The situation will continue. From a spatial perspective, central cities, metropolitan areas, and urban agglomerations have recovered well and even overheated, while other cities have recovered slowly, and some cities have even fallen into recession, and the differentiation may expand. In terms of risks, market risks are expected to decline further, but there are still risks of big ups and downs.
The report believes that the inflection point of housing in the “14th Five-Year Plan” period is coming and the structural potential is strong. On the whole, the long-term housing market has an overall surplus, and the structural surplus will be stricter.Heavy, but the structural potential still exists. In terms of time, it was originally estimated that the absolute inflection point of housing sales in 2025, that is, the absolute decline in housing sales, may be advanced. Although the total amount may fall, the base is larger, and the total amount of housing demand, supply and investment is still relatively large. From the perspective of family types, although there may be a surplus of housing for upper-middle income families, there is still a large gap to be made up for the housing needs of low- and middle-income groups, especially the demand for affordable housing. From the perspective of spatial type, there are four types of opportunity areas: one is that there is a shortage of housing in areas where the population is concentrated, the sub-centers of metropolitan areas and urban agglomerations, and the surrounding large, medium and small cities and small towns; the other is the large, economically developed areas Second-tier cities and surrounding regional cities; third, third- and fourth-tier cities in the central and western regions with large populations, rapid economic development and rapid traffic along the lines; fourth, cities with unique environment, culture, tourism, leisure and elderly resources. But at the same time, there are four types of risk areas: shrinking cities and towns outside of urban agglomerations, resource-exhausted cities, underdeveloped cities and towns below the fourth and fifth tiers, and remote border cities. From the perspective of property types, China’s real estate development will shift from quantity to quality: smart, green, multifunctional, branding trends and characteristics will become more and more obvious. From a risk point of view, the high housing prices in some cities and the high vacancy rates in other cities coexist, and structural contradictions in the housing market still exist.
The report suggests that a systematic and quantitative policy benchmark should be established to strengthen precise and effective regulation. It is recommended that some hotspot cities and cities where real estate speculation has been repeatedly banned should be the first to speed up the pilot collection, and strive to start the real estate tax during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period. Adhere to the general ideas of “Legislation first, speed up legislation”, “Full authorization, local responsibility”, “Gradually advance, and it will be natural” to impose real estate tax on only new transactions or transfers (including gifts and inheritance) of non-business housing families System, and the overall plan for temporarily not levying real estate tax on housing families that have stock houses but temporarily not conducting transactions and transfers, and real estate tax is levied according to a certain tax rate, tax base, and threshold. At the same time, the “New Resident Housing Project” of “combination of rent and sale” was launched. Improve the guarantee mechanism of affordable rental and purchase housing and explore the establishment of a policy-based housing financial system with housing provident fund as the main body.