White hair strength
Editor’s note: This article is from the micro-channel public number “really makes Rousseau” (ID: zhenjiaolujun0426), Author: Rousseau really makes the team.
The property market situation is different every year, but there are some commonalities. For example, the transaction volume tends to decline at the end of the year. Some buyers will choose to enter the market at this time to see if they can talk about it. Bargaining prices, but these buyers may be disappointed this year. In the past two months, buyers are scrambling like they can’t buy a house. The beginning and end of the 2020 property market are really special enough
Furthermore, by observing the data, there are many special places this year. Let’s take the second-hand transaction data of Shanghai Lianjia as an example:
➤ The proportion of transactions in the inner ring this year is 1.25 times that of last year.
➤ In this year’s total transaction price range, the volume of 5-8 million is 1.41 times that of last year
➤ The transaction volume of the area above 120 square meters is 1.42 times that of last year
All the data point to the fact that improvement is in the lead. The transaction data of Lianjia also shows that replacement customers account for up to 61% of the current Shanghai property market. From the perspective of age, mainly young and middle-aged 33-35 years old and second This is a peak age, many people may not have thought of it
Source: Shanghai Lianjia transaction data in 2020
The sight shifted to the right to replace another peak age group of customers, 53-62 years old. Yes, the purchasing power of the “silver hair” that is ignored by everyone is adding fire to the current hot second-hand market. Where is the “battlefield” and will the perception of buying a house be different
(Full text data source: Shanghai Lianjia second-hand housing transaction data in 2020)
53-62 years old, they are more bold to buy a house
On Lianjia data, 40-60 years old and above 60 years old buyThe proportion of home buyers is 24.7%, but the 40-year-old is not considered to be an older home buyer. Smaller ones can see that only 6.7% of home buyers over 60 years old. In the data of Lianjia, the oldest home buyer is a 98-year-old aunt , Purchased a house in Gucun Park with full payment, Poly Leaf Shanghai Phase II
Source: Shanghai Lianjia transaction data in 2020
6.7% is not a high proportion, but this age group buys a house but has enough “personality”. First of all, it is courageous enough
Transactions with a total price of less than 3 million yuan are the same for the elderly and other age groups.
Source: Shanghai Lianjia transaction data in 2020
But in the total price range of 3 to 5 million, the elderly are obviously more courageous. We can also find corresponding support when we compare the “house purchase needs” of different age groups.
Source: Shanghai Lianjia transaction data in 2020
The proportion of improvement needs of buyers over 60 years old is 1.6 times that of other age groups. Obviously, the improvement needs of the elderly, the stronger the phenomenon summarized by big data, is a high probability that our market will encounter I went to Qibao Vanke some time ago and saw the landlord in 3 of the 6 suites I have seen ➤ An elderly living with a child ➤ A middle-aged person aged 40-50 ➤ The other is the landlord on the 4th floor. I said where is the bug on the 5th floor?I’m 61 years old and want to sell the house I’m living in. Add some money to move to live near my son’s and daughter-in-law’s house. While selling one house, these older house buyers need to buy another one. It can be said that the current replacement market , The elderly home buyers occupy a fairly high market share and this proportion will continue to increase, because the aging problem in Shanghai is an indisputable fact
In 2019, the proportion of Shanghai’s population over 60 years old has reached 35.2%. There will be more and more people over 60 years old in the future
The purchasing power of more than 1/3 of the population really cannot be underestimated
Then what kind of house do they like
According to the transaction data of Lianjia in 2020, 62.4% of the elderly home buyers trade in the old for the new
On average, the building age after the replacement is 4 years younger than before the replacement
Source: Shanghai Lianjia transaction data in 2020
The area will also increase. The data shows that on average, the area of the house after replacement has increased by 14.3 square meters. Compared with competitors of other age groups, these two figures are not much different. They are all pursuing newer and larger houses.< /p>
The third data, the elderly prefer 1-room and 2-room houses, and rarely choose 3-room houses
Source: Shanghai Lianjia transaction data in 2020
Combining the latter two data, it is not difficult to see that the elderly are willing to pursue larger houses and also like 2-room houses.There is no childcare and other needs. They want a more spacious living environment. There are also some interesting data. Elderly people prefer low-rise residences when choosing floors. Most people of all ages choose 5th and 6th floors.
Source: Shanghai Lianjia transaction data in 2020
I also like elevator rooms. 46.7% of the elderly will choose elevator rooms. From the perspective of all age groups, the choice of elevator rooms is only 39.4%. After all, it’s okay to climb stairs at 30 or 40 years old, but at 50 or 60 years old, If you ask him to climb up and down more than a dozen floors every day, it is really hard. So later, we will see in the relocation destination data that many elderly people buy houses just to change floors in the same community
So where is their “battlefield”
Want to know the elderlyWhere are they “fighting”, you must first figure out what their purpose is to move< /p>
Because they want a better living environment and lower floors, they don’t have to move far away
This is why we see a lot of home purchase trajectories in the same area, the same sector, or even the same community replacement
From the Shanghai Lianjia transaction data, it can be seen that 44.8% of the elderly replacement destinations are in the same administrative region, and the replacement ratio in the same sector is 25%
In addition to finding a more suitable house for themselves, another important purpose of replacement for the elderly is for their children
One is when children get married or have children. Family structure changes. Large families need to consider optimizing asset allocation. Parents need to support young and older home buyers. They will split the urban house into two suburban houses, or Two sets of small ones, replaced with one set of larger ones, various and so on. So there is another feature of the elderly home buyers’ destinations, that is, “running out”. Let’s look at the specific administrative area and see the biggest change from the administrative area. The top three are ➤ Xuhui District (-5.2%) ➤ Songjiang District (+3.8%) ➤ Pudong New Area (-3.6%)
Source: Shanghai Lianjia transaction data in 2020
The “+” beside the percentage number on the right is the change in moving in, and the “-” is the change in moving out. The top three moving in are: Songjiang, Baoshan, Jiading The top three moving out are: Xuhui, Pudong, Hongkou
Elderly homebuyers are fleeing the city center. First of all, most of the elderly are in a state of retirement. The office resources in the city center have little to do with the elderly. Secondly, the elderly have no need for parenting, and they are more likely to help their children. There is no need to think too much about the city center where educational resources are concentrated. To be honest, in recent years, Shanghai’s urban renewal has been mainly concentrated in the outer suburbs. In contrast, the houses in the city center are generally older and outdated in design. Parking spaces are hard to find, and many husband’s houses can only park their cars in the aisles where the original residents walked
Source: Xinhua News Agency
In the outer suburbs area, the population density is not as high as the city center, and the environment isBetter, commercial facilities and living facilities are becoming more and more complete. Therefore, sectors outside the city center are gradually becoming more attractive to the elderly. Specifically, the top ten sectors in the home purchase menu of older home buyers are here< /p>
Source: Shanghai Lianjia transaction data in 2020
These plates are basically not in the inner ring, and the farthest one is even Minpu
Be more specific, let’s take a look at what are the top ten communities in Lianjia’s senior sales this year
Source: Shanghai Lianjia transaction data in 2020
In general, most of the “battlefields” for the elderly do not have much educational resources, but the general greening conditions are generally better. Many are the price depressions in this administrative section, or the lower prices in the same ring. So if you look again Looking at the above replacement trajectory gif, you can see that the elderly population replaces the city center from inside to outside. Among them, the outer ring and the outer ring account for a prominent proportion of transactions. Among them, 39% of the elderly are replaced by the outer ring.
Speaking at the end,
There is a report on the Development of China’s Aging Industry. It predicts that between 2014 and 2050, the consumption potential of China’s elderly population will increase from 4 trillion to 106 trillion yuan, and this will increase to 33% of GDP. From this perspective, cities facing aging will also become places with greater market potential for the aging industry. Let’s not analyze how much of this data is finally possible. The two facts that are closest to us are that many elderly houses in Shanghai are welcoming aging. The advent of “I went to the most aging community in Shanghai” The closest thing to us is that older people who are more courageous to buy a house in the second-hand housing market choose to buy a house in full, and they no longer consider working or getting married. , The need for childbirth, what is needed instead is the low-rise housing outside the city center with a good environment and two bedrooms. In the future, when we scan the goods in the second-hand market, don’t forget that the elderly will also become competitors that should not be underestimated
The above is the main text, from Choklili