This article is from WeChat official account:Eleven cars (ID: autoknows) , author: Dude Biao, the original title: “Two points system, the largest profit killer? “, the head picture comes from: Visual China
At last year’s China Electric Vehicle Hundreds Conference, Zhu Huarong, chairman of Changan Automobile, stated that Due to the failure of the double points, Changan’s bicycle profit was 4,000 yuan less. Changan delivered an excellent answer sheet in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 14%, annual sales of more than 2 million units, and a net profit of about 2.8 to 4 billion. According to this calculation, Changan’s bicycle profit should be around 2,000 yuan .
But Mr. Zhu said that the bicycle profit was 4,000 yuan less. If you multiply it by the sales volume, you will find that the number is quite astronomical. It’s not clear how the specific settlement was derived, because last year the double-point statistics has not been publicized, but from the double-point gap rankings calculated in 2019, many brands are in the hundreds of thousands, and some of them are energy-saving. The famous joint venture brand, not only Changan but also the six major domestic auto brands have similar troubles this year.
How did manufacturers get to this point? In the double points calculation formula, new energy vehicles play two roles. In the fuel consumption points, it can reduce the actual value of the average fuel consumption of the enterprise and increase the points of new energy vehicles.
If you don’t pay enough attention to new energy products and focus on fuel vehicles, and your fuel vehicles are not energy-efficient, and because they are popular in the market and have a huge output, then when you settle accounts after autumn, in the double-point accounting system, you The greater the price to be paid when you need to “dispel points”.
The problem is that even among the Japanese brands that are known for their energy saving, many brands are on the black list of negative points, which shows that if you want to get rid of the dilemma of negative points, you can only create new abilities.Source car. As for whether the new energy vehicles produced can be sold, it is your problem. The policy does not care about this.
In the upgraded version of the new regulations in 2021, it is stipulated that the percentage of new energy vehicles should reach 14%, 16%, and 18% within three years. This means that the production capacity weight of new energy products needs to be expanded, such as annual sales. A company with 1 million vehicles will have to reach 140,000 new energy points this year. If calculated at 4 points per vehicle, the company needs to produce 35,000 new energy products. The premise is that these 35,000 cars can be sold. On the other hand, if the demand is not so large, the manufacturer will not produce so many cars, so the insufficient points will be purchased.
In the 2020 domestic new energy market rankings, in addition to the two atypical works of Tesla and Hongguang MINI, the only models with more than 40,000 units throughout the year are the Euler Black Cat, Aeon S and Qin EV. According to the current market that claims to be fired up to 3000 yuan per point (new energy points), there are few brands that owe more than 100,000 points. It really doesn’t fill this hole.
Double points are becoming the number one killer of human life and health, no, it is the number one killer of car manufacturers’ profits.
Changan’s sense of crisis may stem from this. The rules are forcing industrial upgrading and transformation. Increased output may alleviate the negative score problem, but the sales side is a problem. Under the attack of the market and policies, manufacturers are a little difficult to do.
Buy points or internal transfer
In the official game rules, it can be understood that the longer the product mileage and the lower the power consumption per 100 kilometers, the more reward points, but the trend of rewards is gradually decreasing, similar to subsidies declining, so early Manufacturers that started selling new energy vehicles, such as BYD, achieved 890,000(fuel consumption points) in 2019, and new energy points also reached 470,000 points, naturally, there is a mine at home, and the brand that sells fuel vehicles is a headache. In addition, the policy stipulates that fuel consumption points are not allowed to be bought and sold, and the negative points can only be offset through the transfer of affiliated companies or the production of new energy vehicles.
Of course, Guangming Avenue is madly giving birth to children, and more new energy vehicles are built. As for whether anyone will buy them, don’t care. The second option is internal or related companies transfer, such as SAIC. In 19 years, SAIC’s fuel points can be helpHelp SAIC GM and SAIC Volkswagen to solve considerable problems.
Diss said the year before that Volkswagen would not pass the review by buying points. In the fall of 2020, the total debt of the North and South Volkswagen in China reached -700,000. To solve this problem, Volkswagen has to choose Speeding up the launch of new energy products, the other hand is intriguing. Because affiliates can implement internal transfers, and Jianghuai Automobile happens to have a mine at home, and the positive points have reached 500,000+, so the marriage between Volkswagen and Jianghua Automobile Group at the end of last year could not help but let go The deep meaning behind the imagination.
But this kind of gameplay is not universal, and not every manufacturer can find a partner with high-quality assets, and is willing to transfer part of the benefits. So everyone can turn to the third way to buy points, but as mentioned above, the market for points is as popular as Bitcoin. The unit price of 3,000 yuan may not be intuitive enough, but multiplying by the manufacturer’s negative points base is enough to form a sum. huge sum of money. In accordance with the conservation of energy, this inadvertently made a group of manufacturers rich, and Tesla bears the brunt.
The wealth of new cars
In 2020, Tesla’s net profit reached 721 million U.S. dollars, but the credit cannot be counted on selling cars. Relying on selling carbon allowances, Tesla made 1.6 billion U.S. dollars last year. In other words, if part of the income is removed, Tesla’s book will still be at a loss.
In other words, Tesla, which has an annual sales volume of 500,000 units, cannot yet make money from selling cars, and needs additional subsidies from “policy”. This explains to some extent the reason why traditional manufacturers do not like to build new energy vehicles and do not make money.
A similar answer was also given from the market demand side. In 2020, domestic new energy vehicle production and sales will be about 1.36 million, and sales will increase by about 10% year-on-year. However, as mentioned earlier, Tesla’s annual sales of 130,000, Hongguang MINI 110,000, two explosive models accounted for the bulk of the growth, especiallyIt is in the 200,000-level market in the main range that other products are not active; a single hot model or even a brand cannot represent the enthusiasm of the market.
From the perspective of the 2021 upgraded version of the new regulations, the increase in the percentage of new energy vehicles has a certain control effect, because the points earned by each pure electric vehicle are decreasing year by year, which means With the same points, production needs to increase. Under the assumption that production is equal to sales, if there are not so many production and sales, the total number of fuel vehicles needs to be reduced simultaneously. In other words, you are not allowed to sell so many cars.
Therefore, the double points system is indeed a nightmare for many manufacturers. It is independent of the manufacturers’ accounting in the market system, but it interferes with your production and has a certain amount of control. On the one hand, it forces the transformation of the enterprise. Technological upgrades, on the other hand, restrict the company’s vehicle sales ratio. The most important thing is that the company’s profits are declining. Before battery costs are effectively reduced, the production of new energy vehicles is not a profitable business. Points can only be regarded as fighting within the policy rules, not as profit in the market sense.
The biggest pain of being forced to operate is not exhaustion or reluctance, but not making money. For car companies, the good days are temporarily over, and the new good days have not yet come.
This article is from WeChat official account:Eleven cars (ID: autoknows) , author: Dude Biao