After experiencing a substantial upward movement at the end of January and then gradually stabilizing, the interest rate trend once again ushered in the market’s attention.
Guo Shuqing, Chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, stated at a press conference of the State Council Information Office on March 2 that the interest rate of the entire market is picking up this year, and it is estimated that the interest rate of loans will also pick up. There may be adjustments, but in general, interest rates are still relatively low.
This statement immediately attracted attention. However, it is understood that the loan interest rate mentioned by Guo Shuqing will rise, mainly referring to the exit of some policies such as the financial discount on loans in the early period, rather than verbal interest rate hikes.
The central bank pointed out in the “Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the Fourth Quarter of 2020” that the next phase of a stable monetary policy should be flexible, precise, reasonable and appropriate, and adhere to the principle of stability. Make a sharp turn, grasp the timeliness and effectiveness of policies, handle the relationship between economic recovery and risk prevention, and maintain the sustainability of the normal monetary policy space.
In fact, the market has been concerned about the normalization of monetary policy for a long time.
UBS Securities pointed out when looking ahead to the “Two Sessions” across the country that the central bank may soon resume policy normalization, but the main method of policy normalization is to reduce liquidity and Without raising interest rates, as fiscal support weakens and macro-prudential measures tighten, credit growth may slow further.
“At the moment, there is no increase in policy interest rates such as LPR and MLF interest rates in the short term, and the turning point may be in the second half of the year.” said a bond trader at a joint-stock bank.
After experiencing a substantial increase in funding interest rates at the end of January and then stabilizing, throughout February, the central bank achieved a net return of 314 billion yuan in the open market.
However, the Financial Times under the central bank previously stated that the current number of operations by the central bank should not be overly concerned, otherwise it may misunderstand the orientation of monetary policy, and the focus should be The central bank’s open market operating interest rate, MLF interest rate and other policy interest rate indicators, as well as the operation of market benchmark interest rates over a period of time.
When looking forward to the next market interest rate and monetary policy, the CITIC Securities clearly stated bond research team believes that the central bank’s monetary policy operation will focus on stability and will not cause inter-bank funds Prices fluctuate sharply. At present, DR007 has basically fallen to the vicinity of the central bank’s agreed policy interest rate, and the interbank certificate of deposit interest rate has generally fluctuated around the MLF interest rate. Therefore, the monetary policy will remain stable in the short term.