This article is from WeChat official account:Wall Street knowledge (ID: wallstreetcn)< span class = "text-remarks">, author: Ye Zhen, the original title: “they fell 5%! Why did the “Moutais” suddenly stop fragrant? “, the title picture comes from: Visual China
At the beginning of the Year of the Ox, the A-share style of painting changed suddenly.
The three consecutive days before the holiday, coupled with the rise in overseas markets during the holiday, make everyone look forward to the market after the holiday. Unexpectedly, after the holiday, the A-share market will rise and fall, and the face change will make people caught off guard. It is still Maotai’s leading stocks in various industries that once gave people a sense of security.
On March 4, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index fell more than 2% and fell below 3,500 points at one time
I wanted to hold a group of white wine for warmth, but I didn’t expect a basin of cold water to be so cool. Moutai is not only the leader in liquor, but also the representative of Baotuan stocks in the past two years. As Moutai fell into the hot search, the belief in Baotuan stocks is also collapsing, and the rest of the funds holding groups have also fallen.
On March 4, Moutai once fell nearly 6%, and closed down 5%. Coincidentally, the last time Moutai fell sharply, the drop was also 5%.
Why is Moutai suddenly not fragrant? Is the Baotuan stock adjusted or completely disintegrated?
The current situation is still unclear. Various interpretations are overwhelming and anxious and confused. It is better to learn from history and see how the bloc market in the history of A-shares came into being and how they collapsed.
01 What is a Baotuan stock?
Baotuan refers to the group of institutional investors. A-shares are a well-known “retail market” with a strong speculative atmosphere. However, in the past ten years or so, institutional investors represented by public funds have gradually risen and become more and more influential, becoming a very important force.
These institutional investors have similar decision-making frameworks and behavioral patterns. Simply put, heroes see the same thing. They always find the sectors with the highest performance growth and gradually adjust to centralized holdings, which leads to the emergence of groupings. .
In general, institutions continue to increase their positions and hold a sector close to or even more than 30%, which can be regarded as a group.
In the history of A-shares, there have been four significant blocs: the first was the financial bloc from 2007 to 2010, the second was the consumer bloc from 2009 to 2012, and the third was 2013 The fourth round of technology grouping from 2016 to 2016 is the current round of core asset grouping.
Each time the group is not rising unilaterally, and the end is not an abrupt end, it is always mixed with entanglement and hesitation in the ups and downs. Now let us take a closer look at the process from peak to weakening of the group market, and see what really determines the trend of the market.
02 those groups that A shares held in those years
(1) The first group, the financial group from 2007 to 2010
This is the most glorious history of A-shares. After the Shanghai Composite Index hit a bottom at 998.23, it soared to a record high of 6124.04. It has not been able to break through so far. Financial stocks have contributed to this.
The foreshadowing of the Baotuan market was laid two years ago. In 2005, the People’s Bank of China announced the exchange rate reform and abandoned the peg to the U.S. dollar. Since then, the renminbi has opened a path of appreciation for nearly 10 years, and a large amount of capital has poured into China.
Foreign investment is enthusiastic, hot money is rampant, and the stock market skyrocketed. With the rapid expansion of money and credit, the performance of the financial sector has also grown rapidly, doubling the growth from 2006 to 2007.
The sharp rise in the financial sector in 2006 strengthened the belief in institutional holdings. At the end of that year, public equity funds held 40% of financial holdings and remained above 40% in 2007. By the third quarter of 2007, the quarter when the Shanghai Composite Index hit 6000 points, the allocation of public funds to the financial sector reached a maximum of 48%.
Just when everyone thought that you would be able to sit back and relax with finances, the test came. When the 2008 financial crisis struck, the financial sector was the first to bear the brunt. Non-bank financials fell 68% throughout the year, and Baotuan was on the verge of collapse.
At this time, the four trillion stimulus plan was born, and it was nothing short of a help. With so many projects to be invested, credit is expanding again, finance is ushering in a new growth point, and the group that is about to collapse is once again fast.Quick assembly. In the third quarter of 2009, the allocation of funds to financial real estate was as high as 49.94%, nearly half.
But the banquet that is everywhere in the world, the financial group ended in 2010, and two things happened at that time.
One is that social financing is not up to expectations, and the growth rate even turned negative in the first quarter; the other is that food and beverage performance has ushered in explosive growth. In contrast, financial sectors, especially banks, have no performance flexibility, so institutions use Voting by feet began to gather from finance to consumption represented by food and beverages.
In the second quarter of 2010, the financial group collapsed.
Let’s see the result of the collapse of the group. From April 2010 to July 2011, the financial index fell by 20%, while the index excluding finance rose by 2% during the same period. By the end of September 2011, the financial index had fallen by more than 30%.
(2) The second holding group, the consumption holding group from 2009 to 2012
After the financial dissolution, consumption ushered in its great era.
Institutions will always pursue the best-performing sectors. Just after the economic crisis in 2009, the performance of most sectors is still negative growth, while food and beverage and home appliances have already surrendered double-digit growth.
It is reasonable to say that the demand for food and beverages is relatively stable, and the amount of rice eaten, water drink, and oil used will not fluctuate too much. So where does the surge in performance come from? The answer is to increase prices.
The economic environment at the time was somewhat similar to the current one. Below RMB 4 trillion, liquidity is abundant and inflation is picking up, which gives consumer goods an opportunity to increase prices. The high performance of the food and beverage sector occurs when CPI+PPI is relatively high.
Inflation has continued to pick up, and consumption performance has maintained high growth. Since the third quarter of 2009, public offerings have continued to increase consumption. By the third quarter of 2010, the allocation has reached 28%, surpassing finance and becoming the largest warehouse sector. By the first quarter of 2012, the institutional allocation ratio reached 31%, a record high.
Baijiu is also the most favored in this holding group market, but the final collapse was also caused by the baijiu.
In November 2012, the “plasticizer incident” of baijiu broke out. Jiuguijiu was disclosed by the media that its plasticizer exceeded the standard, and the baijiu sector plummeted immediately.
But the real lethality is yet to come.
In December 2012, the CCP issued eight regulations to curb the consumption of the three publics. The liquor industry has entered a cold winter, and the price of high-end liquor has plummeted from short supply to no one. The demand is gone, and the performance is of course not good, and the group of consumer stocks has begun to collapse.
Consumer stocks then changed from “Xiaotiantian” to “big stinky”. The consequence of the collapse of this wave is that the growth of consumer stocks in the following year far underperformed other indexes in the market.
(3) The third group, the technology group from 2013 to 2016
After the collapse of consumption, the technology sector began to rise, and this time the main battlefield was on the Growth Enterprise Market.
Before the arrival of the Baotuan army, the GEM was going through the darkest moment. At the end of 2012, when the GEM was established for three years, this is a critical time point. The major shareholders of the GEM in 2009 and the peak of the IPO in 2010 will be lifted. The performance pressure was superimposed and the lifting of the ban struck, and the GEM fell from the highest of 1219 points in 2010 to 585 points at the end of November 2012, a drop of over 50%.
This is the darkness before dawn. In 2013, everything suddenly reversed. The sales of smartphones exploded, the 4G era was officially opened, and the first year of mobile Internet was coming.
With the advancement of technology and changes in consumption habits, the information technology industry is welcoming a hundred flowers, smart phones, security, 4G, mobile games…. Hot spots are one after another. Under the leadership of the industry leaders, the technology performance has exploded, and the curtain of grouping has opened.
Since 2013, institutions have begun to increase their positions in the TMT industry significantly, and the proportion has rapidly increased from 7.4% to 24.4%, but the real grouping has not yet begun.
At that time, there was another catalyst for the performance of the GEM, which was mergers and acquisitions.
The media company Blue Cursor has taken a different approach and created this profit model. Through investment and mergers and acquisitions, its performance has improved by leaps and bounds. The 2013 annual report recorded an 86% growth.
This kind of “buy, buy, buy” has led to a wave of mergers and acquisitions, and has become an important contributor to the performance of the ChiNext. At that time, researchers must ask “Does the company have an extended growth plan?”
At the same time, as the construction of 4G accelerates, the country pays more and more attention to the Internet, and TMT is in the limelight for a while. By the fourth quarter of 2015, public fund holdings in the information technology sector reached 35.43%, a record high.
Under the combined effect of the capital group and the two financial allocations, the GEM index rose from about 1,000 points to 4,000 points, an increase of 4 times, and the valuation exceeded 100 times.
However, those who have made you will eventually destroy you.
The tightening of mergers and acquisitions and restructuring policies in 2016 was a fatal blow to the GEM, because in 2015 alone, mergers and acquisitions contributed as much as 60% to the growth of GEM’s performance.
The collapse of the M&A logic, coupled with the gradual fading of mobile Internet dividends, the rapid decline in the growth rate of GEM performance, and the collapse of the TMT group market.
A chicken feather is left every time you leave.
After the collapse of the technology group, the ChiNext has ushered in a lost three years, with a 54% decline in the three years. Many stocks of the once-brilliant ten-fold stocks are “ankle-cut”, with a drop of more than 70% everywhere.
(4) The fourth grouping: core capitalProduction
In the twinkling of an eye, we have come to the current round of grouping, and institutions have gathered together with core assets focusing on consumption + medicine + technology.
What are core assets? The definition is still diverse, simple to understand, it is the leaders in all walks of life, those high-quality big blue chips with large market value and high growth.
After the collapse of Baotuan from 2009 to 2012, consumption has been silent for a long time. By 2016, a turning point has come.
This year, capital from the North China came, and at the same time a brand-new concept became popular in A-shares, that is, “consumption upgrade”. In 2015, there were only 60 seller reports with the title “Consumption Upgrade”. By 2016, it had increased to 270, and in 2017, it had increased to 450.
The spring of consumption is back again. Judging from the past few rounds of grouping, it is always performance that really attracts institutions, and behind the rebound in consumption performance, as usual, it is still inflation.
After December 2011, the CPI+PPI indicator continued to decline and remained below 1%. It began to turn negative and continue to rise in July 2016. PPI has rebounded and raw material prices have risen, so should prices be increased? The economy improves, income improves, and demand increases, so prices must be increased. But “price increase” is not as elegant as “consumption upgrade”.
Beginning in 2017, the institutions finally reached an agreement and began to increase their food and beverage warehousing by a large margin, from 18.3% in 2016 to close to 30% in the second quarter of 2018.
Moutai is the best footnote for this round of grouping. From the low point of 195.51 in January 2016, it rose to 2627.88 the year before, a 13-fold increase in five years.
Every time you feel that the rise is almost the end, it’s time to peak. It can always hit a new high until you give up doubts and firmly believe that Moutai’s journey is the sea of stars. Anyway, in A shares, everything is good for Moutai.
In 2020, with the outbreak of the epidemic, the pharmaceutical sector with good performance expectations has also become the direction of the market. The sales volume of semiconductors, new energy, and photovoltaics has increased rapidly, and the sectors with optimistic demand have also been favored by institutions.
But after the Spring Festival, A shares will change day. Under the leadership of Maotai, Baotuan stocks collectively encountered Waterloo. Has the Baotuan market come to an end?
End of 03
In the post-epidemic era, the economy has come out of its trough, inflation expectations have risen, monetary policy has tightened, and various factors have led to continued sluggish market sentiment.
This round of Baotuan’s plunge has a lot to do with overseas markets. U.S. Treasury yields climbed rapidly, and the upward speed exceeded market expectations, triggering investor anxiety about valuations.
For institutional stocks, especially the leading consumer stocks favored by foreign investors, the impact of interest rates, liquidity, and inflation on the global macro level is increasing.
The rise in U.S. bond interest rates may not only limit the upward valuation of U.S. stocks, but also spread to other countries, causing high-valued stocks to be under tremendous pressure, especially when core stocks are at historical highs.
There is no permanent banquet in the world. Any institutional grouping market will eventually collapse and collapse, but before it truly collapses, there will be one or two flops. Only by grasping the real factors that determine the market can you face the ups and downs of the market , Not so confused.
Looking back at the previous holding group market, it is not difficult to see that performance is king, and the decision whether organizations are to get together is always the profitability of a company or industry, especially the performance advantage relative to other industries.
So, when you want to give up holding group stocks, you might as well ask, has the performance trend changed? And when Baotuan really collapses, don’t have any idea of bargaining.
References: “Bao Tuan” Revelation: Groups we held together in those years, investment strategy
This article is from WeChat official account:Wall Street knowledge (ID: wallstreetcn) , Author: Ye Zhen