This article is from WeChat official account:caoz’s dreams (ID: caozsay) , author: caozsay, title figure from: vision China
Sorry, the title is party.
In fact, I have always been taboo about the topic of real estate investment, and I don’t want to touch it. To put it bluntly, I lack successful experience and my judgment is not strong enough, so I really don’t want to mislead users and avoid this topic as much as possible. Yes, I know that the knowledge payment income of many real estate developers is much higher than mine, but people have self-knowledge, and I don’t have this ability, so I don’t want to be greedy for this income.
However, my readers still ask a lot about real estate topics. Real estate investment is obviously a very, very critical decision. In view of the pitfalls I have stepped on in the history of buying a house (Sorry, I still have quite a few experiences in buying a house. Second), and sort out some logic for everyone. Don’t ask me which house I buy will increase. I will not help you make a judgment. I will only give some basic logic and specific judgments. You have to make your own judgments.
In fact, there are some mentions in the old text.
1. Follow the new money
As mentioned in the old article, investment decisions follow the new money. When choosing real estate, it depends on where the upstarts will choose and where the IT industry talents are concentrated.
2. Control the risk boundary
This is also mentioned in the old article “About Overseas Property, I’ll Sprinkle Some Cold Water”, especially the part about overseas property purchase.
There are indeed opportunities for outbreaks in emerging markets, but we have to know that opportunities and risks have always accompanied each other. If you want to grasp the “next Shenzhen” from Southeast Asia, not every seaside fishing village can become Shenzhen. This Not a high probability event. If you bet on the right, you can indeed get rich returns. You have to judge whether you can afford to lose if you make a wrong gambling.
Excessive pursuit of leverage and extremely low tolerance for market fluctuations are very dangerous.
3. Choose the right one, not the great value
I think this point must be particularly emphasized, and it is also the most common mistake I made in the past. Everyone likes super-bamboo plates, which are properties whose prices are significantly lower than the market price. I’m not saying that you shouldn’t find such real estate, but this is not the most important or the highest priority. Let’s take a longer look. If 20 years ago, you chose a bargain-hunting and value-for-money endgame at the South Third Ring Road in Beijing, compared to buying an ordinary house at the market price next to Tsinghua on the North Fifth Ring Road, from today Look, which return value is higher? Do you understand what I mean? Now let’s look at the so-called value-for-money at that time. The so-called bargain hunting is actually not very meaningful.
Real estate is not suitable for short-term speculation. The so-called over-value and so-called bargaining prices are actually not that important from the 10-year to 20-year investment cycle. The correct location and the correct regional value are more important than this. It may be more important.
So the priority of investment is to choose the right one first. The so-called correct is the aforementioned, follow the new money and judge the regional planning and development space.
Many people will say that you don’t have a backache when you stand and talk, and you can save tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of dollars by buying a great-value house. Longer the time scale, first select the correct section and real estate, and on this basis, check whether there are any value-added listings. Even if there are no value-added listings, you don’t really need to mind too much.
It’s the same with investing in stocks. It’s important to choose the right stocks. Those long-term investment gurus do not care whether the timing of purchase is a short-term trough.
4. Choose your neighbor
There is a story on the Internet that there is a community that, in order to maintain housing prices, will focus on making up lessons for children with poor grades.
Although this case feels a bit too much, similar situations are actually quite normal. For example, in areas where elites gather, ordinary primary schools nearby are getting better and better, and they will gradually become prestigious schools. Naturally, these residential communities also have the status of school district housing.
And if you live by yourself, if your neighbors are knowledgeable or educated people, the living environment will be comfortable. Even if you don’t live any day, the rental price will be much better.
Price is not necessarily an effective way to screen neighbors. Some communities are expensive, if there are a lot of demolition in the communityIf the households are of average quality and self-cultivation, they may be uncomfortable living themselves. In the long run, the appreciation space of the real estate will also be affected to a certain extent.
In Singapore, the settlements of different ethnic groups will also affect housing price trends. Of course, this is a bit politically incorrect, and it won’t start.
The more popular ones are university faculty and staff, family members of scientific research institutions, information industry practitioners, and other residents with a certain educational background.
5. Don’t ask for full blame, but don’t leave any special regrets
Don’t ask for full blame, because the costs you can bear and the goals you expect cannot be exhaustive. Make a wish list, which are required, which are optional, what is the priority of the optional, and then budget constraints. Then, when comparing different listings, look at the different priorities. It may be difficult to pursue the one that satisfies the demands 100%, so it is natural to have a choice.
But some problems, that is, the kind of problems that may make you respond, and that cannot be solved in the short term, cannot be tolerated.
For example, there is a construction site on the opposite side of the community, which is very disturbing to the people. You learned that the construction period is two years. This problem can be tolerated, because it may be helpful to the community if it is completed two years later. This is a problem that can be solved in the short term. But if you find that your neighbor’s property owners are very low-quality, and often occupy public space to throw debris, this is a problem that cannot be solved in the short term. Some people say that this problem is not serious or does not affect it. If you care about it, don’t tolerate it unless you don’t have a plan to live by yourself.
After all, if you spend half your life saving on such an asset, if you live in an upset every day, it’s not worthwhile.
There may be many problems of this kind. Everyone has different likes and dislikes. Things that you think are very different, others think it doesn’t matter, they think you are hypocritical. Who pays to listen to who, why spend money to find it uncomfortable.
6. Focus on long-term planning, but also have your own judgment
The government will have different development plans for different areas of the city, such as subway construction, construction of new industrial parks, such as new commercial facilities or schools. Pay more attention and understand more. Don’t just listen to the developer’s side words, but go to the official government platform for a second check.
In addition, it should be added that many so-called industrial parks may not meet expectations in the end. Every place wants to introduce leading companies and develop new technologiesIn fact, there are only a few areas in the head cities that can achieve scale effects in the end, most of which are real estate projects selling dog meat, such as the former Cyberport in Hong Kong.
So while looking at the long-term plan, we must also pay attention to the current actual progress and evaluate the opportunities and risks. Again, opportunities and risks are associated, not every seaside fishing village can become Shenzhen.
7. Focus on liquidity
Simply put, if one day you need to spend money, or you may need to change the city to develop, you need to sell the property, whether there is enough opportunity to be accepted and paid.
Some properties are really good for self-occupation, which may be suitable for current work and children’s studies, but when you have new development space and want to get out of your funds, you unexpectedly find that there is no market, and there is no market. Man, you are embarrassed. It may only be transferred out with a huge price discount.
There may be few people in China paying attention to this aspect, but at least in Singapore, I found that this problem is quite serious. Many real estate resources I think are super cost-effective, and they cannot be sold for more than half a year.
Generally speaking, transactions in mature large communities are relatively active. So this goes back to what was mentioned earlier. Sometimes you feel that you have found a great value listing, but think about it when you need to sell it in the future, can you only use this method to sell it?
So to sum up, the decision to buy a house is indeed an important decision in life. I can’t help you judge which is more worthwhile and which is better, but the above logic and ideas, I hope it will be helpful to your judgment.
Also, although buying a house is an important decision, it is not an overwhelming decision. Some people say where I want to settle for buying a house, so my career, my family, and the education of my children must revolve around this. I think this is the last one.
Having a house in hand is not a bad thing, but where is the career, where is the development opportunity, don’t be confined to the house, be the owner of the house, don’t be the slave of the house.
The old article mentioned a case, update the data to share with you:
Ten years ago, the landlord bought it for 3.4 million SGD. What is the landlord’s selling price now? It’s 2.7 million SGD and it can’t be sold after several months. It’s still a freehold property!
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This is what I posted at the time. Then the listing was still sold. All transaction prices in Singapore are open and transparent, and no one dares to fake it. Look at the transaction data.
In 2007, the owner bought 3.4 million SGD, and the resale price in 2020 is 2.47 million SGD. Freehold property rights.
There is another data worth sharing recently:
In 2011, the new disk price was 3.75 million, and the resale price in 2021 was 2.75 million. Well, this is 99 years of property rights, and there are nearly 90 years left.
This article is from WeChat official account:caoz fudge (ID: caozsay) , Author: caozsay