While high-end, while reducing prices.
Editor’s note: This article is from the micro-channel public number “new eye” (ID: xinmouls), Author: Zhu eleven, Editor: perch.
The gradual implementation of the “new national standard” has caused a wave of car replacements, and the battery car market superimposed by natural growth, so Yadea has to continue to increase its size.
Xinmu learned from the supply chain that in 2021, Yadi’s FCST order for the supply chain will be 15 million units. This is an increase of nearly half for Yadi’s sales of 10.803 million units in 2020. What is the market’s feedback? , Is still unknown.
The battery car that originally existed only for short- and medium-distance (3-15KM) travel has also begun the road of brand building. It is different from the long-term cooperation between Emma and Jay Chou to build IP. Yadea has proposed “higher-end” since 2014. Since the “Electric Vehicles” strategy, it has been in its own brand building for 7 years.
In 2017, Yadea surpassed Emma with a market share of 13%, and has occupied the top position for many years. It is also based on this that Yadea dared to choose close to 50% of the forecast to meet the market changes in 2021 in the tide of car replacement.
However, for the battery car market, which is both affected by policy and market demand, is Yadea’s expected increase too optimistic?
01 10 million sales
In November 2020, Yadea headquarters in Wuxi, Jiangsu, held a grand ceremony to celebrate the shipment of the 10 millionth battery car in 2020. In 2019, Yadi’s annual shipments exceeded 6 million units, and the 2020 target was set at 10 million units. For Yadea, the market was affected in January-March due to the epidemic, but it was still ahead of schedule. Achieved the set goal in one month.
Yadi broke through 10 million shipments, the real node is in April-November. Judging from the 800,000 shipments in the last month of 2020, whether to resume regular shipments, Yadea’s marketing department’s judgment is still relatively close to the actual situation.
What is the concept of 10 million? In terms of sales and market share in 2019, Yadea has become the world’s number one in the two-wheel electric vehicle industry. Based on this, Yadi said, “10 million annual sales are just the beginning, and it is the beginning of Yadi’s new starting point.” With the launch of the 10 millionth electric car, Yadea has broken through the bottleneck of industry shipments and became the world’s first electric car company with annual sales of 10 million units.
On March 29, Yadea released its 2020 annual report. The annual report shows that Yadea achieved revenue of 19.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 61.8%; net profit was 960 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 89.6%. In the annual report, Yadi mentioned several intentionalThought topic:
First, high-end products. From the actual operation point of view, Yadea will release Guanneng series products in August 2020. The new cars include Guanneng M8, Guanneng T5, etc. The price of Guanneng T5 is 3799 yuan, and the price of Guanneng M8 is 3899 yuan. In subsequent product updates, the starting price of G5 can be raised to 7,499 yuan, and the MAX version is 13,999 yuan.
Two days before the release of the annual report, Guanneng 2.0 was released. It was revealed at the press conference that the sales of Guanneng 1.0 series so far exceeded 2 million units. Guanneng 2.0 will be Yadea’s main product promotion this year. However, whether high prices mean high-end, in fact, whether it is the industry or the market, there is still controversy.
There is a certain misunderstanding about whether the high price of the battery car, which is mainly used for short- and medium-distance transportation, means the high-end travel mode. From the reality, it is a trend to choose a big brand, but economical transportation is still the first choice. Travel demand means that the battery car market is actually more of a cost-effective market, and in a cost-effective market, blindly elevate the brand position. It must be a good thing.
Second, the market is internationalized. In 2019, after the “new national standard” was proposed, the electric vehicle industry is faced with a new round of technological change, a reshuffle and user product update cycle. In the key market switching period of the new national standard for domestic electric vehicles and the domestic market entering the stock market, Yadea began to accelerate its globalization strategy.
Interestingly, from the public information, Yadea does not seem to disclose its revenue in the international market, but only describes in its financial report that “more than 90% of the group’s revenue and operating profit are generated from the sales of electric two-wheelers in China. And more than 90% of the non-current assets and liabilities of the Group are located in China”. In addition, according to Founder Securities’ statistics on the revenue share of major domestic battery car companies in 2019, Yadea’s overseas revenue is also unstated.
For an international company that has built factories in Beijiang, Vietnam, and promoted foreign production and sales, it is indeed a very unexpected thing that it did not accurately disclose the revenue of the international market.
Three, sinking of channels. In 2020, Yadi’s offline stores will increase from 12,000 in 2019 to 17,000 in 2020. The layout covers almost the main administrative divisions of the country. It maintains 17,000 outlets and nearly 3,000 distributors across the country.
Following the implementation of the policy of “No Motorcycles and Electricity Limits” in large and medium-sized cities across the country,The main market for battery cars has been gradually sinking to third- and fourth-tier cities. Yadea, which has its own advantages in offline stores and channels, still has certain advantages in the sinking process.
Four. Technological autonomy. Yadea has set up 2 CNAS laboratories and 5 technology R&D centers around the world, but the number of in-service R&D personnel has not been disclosed. The financial report shows that Yadea has made breakthrough progress in independent research and development of batteries, motors, electronic control and other technologies. The graphene battery and TTFAR 8-level extended range system carried by the GN series can be regarded as Yadea’s huge progress in technological autonomy in recent years.
For the battery car industry with a low manufacturing technology threshold and a relatively fragmented industry structure, technological breakthroughs may not have much surprises compared to electric vehicles. The emergence of technologies such as the “extended program” of electric vehicles and their introduction into the battery car industry is actually a rather ridiculous thing. Whether or not this technology is as advertised, there is a certain degree of “unverified”.
In addition, Yadea invested 605 million in research and development expenses in 2020, accounting for 3.1% of operating income, and sales expenses for the same period were 935 million, which is a very small proportion for Yadea’s self-proclaimed technology autonomy. , And there is no real big gap with competitors, which also highlights the difficulty of making major breakthroughs in the technical level of the battery car industry.
Different from the wait-and-see attitude adopted by other brands in the early stage of the “new national standard” promotion, Yadea has become the biggest beneficiary of the “new national standard” this major standard and technological change period.
Yaddi once worked with the Ministry of Transport Science Research Institute and the Urban Zhixing Information Technology Research Institute to jointly compile and publish the “New National Standard Electric Vehicle Green Development Blue Book in 2019”, and strive to promote the “New National Standard” through active product innovation and technological upgrading. Landing.
Also, as soon as the “New National Standard” was launched, Yadea has successively launched as many as 127 models that meet the “New National Standard”. In other words, while its peers are still waiting to see, Yadea has already spread the market in a large area. In some key regional markets, such as Shandong and Henan, the sales volume of other companies is more than 30%.
02 The price war that can’t escape
In June 2015, Emma launched a price war to “break down the reserve price” across the country. The direct opponent of this strategy is Yadi, who has just released the “high-end” strategy.Moreover, several products released to support price wars almost covered the price range of the market at that time, which meant “clearing the market” for a while.
In the fiercely competitive domestic market, the “price war” has actually been going on. The most representative one is the air-conditioning industry. After the inverter wars in the late 1990s, around 2007 and 2014, the air-conditioning industry has formed a double The form of an oligarch.
So when Emma put out this advertisement, the market’s first reaction was, what should the second- and third-tier brands and other brand and white-brand battery car manufacturers do?
After three months, Emma gradually returned to the original market price without Yadi’s follow-up. After all, the cost and profit could hardly support Emma to engage in a larger-scale price war.
Generally speaking, the cost composition of an electric vehicle, raw materials and accessories account for 50%-60%, advertising and marketing expenses account for 10%-20%, channels account for 20%, and warehousing and logistics account for 10%. Big brands have certain bargaining power in the parts procurement process, and will not hesitate to cut off some agents and adopt direct supply from the township.
Furthermore, Emma’s star endorsements are made of real money. The amount of money given to stars is tens of millions or even hundreds of millions a year. The vitality of many small regional brands and miscellaneous brands is stronger than we thought, and it is short-term. The price war will hardly drive them to death.
This battle won Emma’s market share, brand influence, survival space, and expanded the township market for it. However, Yadi is also pushed to a “higher-end” position from the side. After all, the “price war” is a double-edged sword.
Starting from the second half of 2015, Yadea has concentrated its resources on high-end and differentiation under the strategy of “no more sales, no more profits, no more industry rankings”, and differentiation often means The premium ability increases. When the premium increases, the profit margin is enlarged. The profit of dealers will increase on the original basis. Under the joint action of the brand owner and the dealer, the brand influence will gradually increase.
In May 2016, Yadea successfully listed in Hong Kong, becoming China’s first electric vehicle listed company.
After the repositioning of Yadi, it only took less than a year to get rid of the situation of being suppressed by Emma’s competition, attack Emma from the high-end, and initially won the active position. After that, Emma began to counterattack, and the two sides began to fight head-on, fighting in three areas: high-altitude advertising, terminal image and overseas markets.
Emma also made rapid adjustments in strategy. In March 2016, Emma proposed the Nine Leading Strategies for 2016 at the annual dealer meeting, each of which pointed to Yadi’s “higher-end” strategy. However, the “anticlimax” of the previous price war did not overwhelm the market in one go. After Yadea did not follow up, it ended hastily, which caused a certain decline in the brand’s reputation. This also gave Yadea a chance to be surpassed in 2017.
However, Yadea’s high-endization seems to be making progress in the 2020 financial report.One step is weakened. The financial report shows that the average selling price of electric scooters has dropped from RMB 1,690 in 2019 to RMB 1552 in 2020, while the average selling price of electric bicycles has dropped from RMB 1,228 in 2019 to RMB 1,118 in 2020.
The main reason for this situation is also the price war.
In October 2020, Yadea and Pinduoduo jointly launched the “Brand Ten Thousand Group” event. On the day of the event, Pinduoduo’s “Ten Billion Subsidy” live broadcast room carried out online live broadcast sales of more than 20 popular electric vehicle models under Yadea’s Guanneng, Midi, Leon, and Xiaojinguo series. The price is generally 10%-30% cheaper than other channels. In addition to battery cars, it also provides multi-wheel electric cars and helmets with special price spike benefits. The most direct result is the increase in sales of Yadi’s entire line of products. As of 10 pm on the 6th, the order volume of Pinduoduo Yadi series electric vehicles increased by 238% compared with the previous day.
The subsidy-benefit behavior of this online live broadcast has indeed stimulated a wave of Yadi’s sales from the market situation, but the “same product at different prices” sales behavior on other platforms also caused an imbalance in Yadi’s price system.
When Yadi was “walking the tightrope” online, Emma resurrected the sub-brand Spozman. It is speculated that Emma will further penetrate the sinking market with the help of this “show off wealth” brand, which is permanently contemporaneous with Phoenix.
Millions, Emma produced, Tao Feng personally traded, specializes in third- and fourth-tier cities and township markets, and products are focused on ultra-high cost performance and ultra-high practicality. These labels will be Emma’s last price war. After the loss, the most common “dual brand” strategy in the mobile phone industry was adopted to face Yadea’s excellent means.
Sportsman’s re-emergence as Emma’s Volkswagen brand is bound to have a huge impact on the township electric vehicle market. And this is also the electric car market under the normalization of price wars, ensuring that the Emma brand and sales have both.
Obviously, in addition to broadening the series, Yadi has no better way to deal with it for the time being. We guess that Yadea will choose one of the many sub-series products to operate independently, and compete with Emma in the main cost-effective market.
If Yadea loses its advantage in online channels, the No. 9 electric car and Mavericks electric car, which are mainly online and focus on smart driving, will wait for the opportunity. Emma and Xinri will also look forward to it. Waiting for Yadi to make a mistake. In fact, in choosing to explore the high-end and sinking markets, Yadea’s greater crisis is hidden in the lack of the To B-end market.
03 Sink and share
In terms of sales alone, the 17% market share is 3% higher than the second Emma, and 12% higher than the third Shinri. This is Yadi’s existing advantage.
Yadi will provide sales in 2021After giving it to the supply chain, Emma’s sales data was also announced, 16 million. At the same time, the planned sales volume of the new day has increased from 3 million to 5 million. For Yadi, the real threat may come from Emma, who chooses to work in the sinking market, and the new day of winning a large order for shared battery cars.
There is no doubt that in third- and fourth-tier cities and township markets, cost-effectiveness is the first choice for consumers, and the market is huge.
Judging from the 300 million stock of battery cars, superimposed and compounded car swaps will be a big market. After cities are gradually saturated and traffic control becomes stricter, more than 70% of the users outside the Fifth Ring Road will be a sinking market. An important source of increments.
Perhaps it is to see this trend that Yadea will venture to cooperate with Pinduoduo, who is also intensively plowing the sinking market, to engage in “tens of billions of subsidies” and to adopt low-cost forms for cooperative sales. In the analysis of new sources of battery cars, it is estimated that the largest source of increase in the next five years will be the replacement of over-standard vehicles in the “new national standard” car replacement tide, and then the natural replacement in the 300 million stock market. The industry’s new demand is not expected More than 2 million units.
The real increase in the market comes from the demand for shared bicycles and takeaway vehicles.
In terms of shared bicycles, Haro’s launch should be the most statistically available. One of the main reasons is to get the qualification for launching. However, in Haro’s launch, the source of vehicle purchases is actually not among the top five battery car manufacturers. Public information It shows that Haro’s supplier is Fujitec, and it is expected that the launch will be at the million level, while Haro’s users have reached 400 million in the same period.
The main source of power for Xinri’s sales increase from 3 million to 5 million is related to two shared battery car service providers, Meituan and Qingju.
Public information shows that Meituan plans to purchase 2 million shared electric bicycles. Among them, the cooperation order with Xinri shares has been confirmed. Together with Xinri as a supplier, there is also Haro’s supplier Fujitec. Xinri is likely to become the biggest winner of shared battery cars. In addition to Meituan, Qingju expects to market 2 million upgraded Qingju bikes nationwide, of which a cooperation order for 1 million units is also signed with Xinri.
On the other hand, Yadi has hardly made any achievements in the field of shared battery cars. There is only one driving out. It is currently only launched in Lu’an, Anhui. Due to the qualification of launch, there is no large-scale launch plan for the time being. Although Emma did not get the corresponding large order for shared battery cars, the “dual-brand strategy” offered by Emma would be quite competitive if it operates normally, like the mature dual-brand system in the mobile phone industry.The rival was uncomfortable for a while.
In fact, while Yadi was facing Spozman, it was also facing the increase in production and sales after Xinri received the order for shared battery cars. Of course, the same pressure was transferred to Emma.
The rise of food delivery and intra-city business is a new source of increase in battery cars.
In 2019, there are more than 8 million instant delivery personnel, and huge business needs will maintain the growth of electric motorcycle sales. Takeaways accounted for 80% of instant delivery. Our foreign sellers reached 420 million in 2019. According to estimates, full-time takeaways travel 120-150km a day. Due to the city’s “motor ban”, the delivery is mainly done by battery cars. Demand will maintain the growth in sales of electric motorcycles.
Instant delivery vehicles have the characteristics of large consumption and short replacement cycle. Within the riding distance of 120-150km, the measurable use time can reach up to 12.5h, and the daily charging times are 2 to 3 times. Under this frequency, the battery needs to be replaced within one year, and the entire vehicle needs to be replaced within two years. Although the market space for rider electric two-wheelers is only one million units, the service life of electric two-wheelers and batteries is short due to business characteristics. The number of replacements within 5 years is 6-7 times that of ordinary car owners.
We don’t rule out Ali’s Haro and Ele. Meituan will choose to unify the rider vehicles, that is, the shared battery cars put on the market will be unified with its registered rider vehicles. If this is the case, then, for Yadi , Missing this share will be a great loss.
It should be noted that online brands represented by No.9 and Mavericks, with the differentiation of intelligence and long battery life, have also begun to penetrate offline in the “service center” model. “For Yadi, it is also the most direct competitor in the high-end market above 3,500 yuan.
Yadi has been in the No. 1 position for a long time. After the release of the “Multiplication Plan”, the capital market has a very good attitude towards Yadi. In the year since the epidemic, Yadi’s stock price has risen several times. However, Yadi seems to have not done enough in the face of exploring high-end and sinking markets, as well as emerging intra-city distribution and shared electric vehicles.
After all, “high-end” and “internationalization” are just “figure sheets” most of the time.