On June 16, according to the monitoring of the National Development and Reform Commission, the national average pig-to-food ratio was 5.88:1 from June 7 to 11. (Hereinafter referred to as the “preplan”) set a three-level warning range for excessive decline (below 6:1).
The National Development and Reform Commission recommends that farms (households) scientifically arrange production and operation decisions to maintain pig production capacity at a reasonable level.
This is the first time that the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission has released the national average pig food price comparison data after the implementation of the new “Preplan”.
News reporters noticed that in the new “Preplan”, there are three levels of early warning of excessive decline. At present, the price of pig food has entered a three-level early warning of excessive decline, which is the lowest level of the three-level early warning. The purpose of issuing early warnings is to guide farmers to reduce hurdles steadily and orderly and avoid panic and concentrated hurdles.
Specifically, when the pig-to-food price ratio is lower than 6:1, the National Development and Reform Commission will issue a three-level warning; when the pig-to-food price ratio is at 5:1 for 3 consecutive weeks 1～6:1, or the number of reproductive sows in a single month has decreased by 5% year-on-year, or the number of reproductive sows has decreased by 5%-10% for three consecutive months, a second warning will be issued; When the price ratio is less than 5:1, or the number of reproductive sows in a single month has dropped by 10% year-on-year, or the number of reproductive sows has decreased by more than 10% for three consecutive months, a first-level warning will be issued.
The price ratio of pigs and food is based on the ratio of the weekly live pig price monitored by the National Development and Reform Commission to the average wholesale price of second-class corn in major wholesale markets across the country, based on production cost data in recent years It is estimated that the ratio of pig food corresponding to the break-even point of live pig production is about 7:1.
The official website of the National Development and Reform Commission shows that recently, due to the combined effects of large-weight live pigs, increased imported frozen pork, and weak seasonal demand, the price of live pigs has continued to fall. The National Development and Reform Commission will closely monitor live pig production and market price trends with relevant departments, conscientiously organize and implement the “Preplan”, carry out reserve adjustments in a timely manner, and promote the smooth operation of the live pig market.
On June 9, multi-departmental jointly issued the “Improving the Government Pork Reserve Regulation Mechanism and Doing a Good Job in Maintaining Supply and Stabilizing Prices in the Pork Market” (hereinafter referred to as the “Plan”), It is required to rationally smooth the fluctuations of the “pig cycle”, effectively control the abnormal market influence, and promote the sustainable and healthy development of the pig industry.
This is the fourth adjustment of my country’s pork price plan since 2009. Compared with the 2015 plan, this “plan” has revised and improved the core content of early warning indicators and intervals, reserve classification and scale, and reserve adjustment mechanism.
In terms of indicators, in addition to the selection of “Pig and Food Price Comparison”, this “Preplan” for the first time puts the “change rate of the stock of capable sows” and “36 large “The average retail price of lean meat in Zhongcheng” is included in the early warning indicator system.