On October 12, the latest World Economic Outlook issued by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) showed that the global economic growth forecast for 2021 was slightly lowered to 5.9%, and the forecast for 2022 was kept unchanged at 4.9%.
Among the major economies, the IMF predicts that China’s GDP will grow by 8% in 2021, which is 0.1% lower than the July forecast; the US GDP will grow by 6%, compared to July The forecast value is lowered by 1 percentage point. 
Gita Gopinath, IMF’s economic adviser and research director, pointed out that the difference The country’s economic prospects are showing a dangerous divergence. The total output of advanced economies is expected to return to the pre-epidemic trend level in 2022 and exceed the pre-epidemic trend level by 0.9% in 2024. On the contrary, by 2024, the total output of emerging markets and developing economies (excluding China) is expected to be 5.5% lower than the pre-epidemic forecast, which means that these countries will make more progress in improving living standards. The backwards.
Gita Gopinath said that this differentiation is caused by the “vaccine gap” and the huge difference in policy support. In advanced economies, more than 60% of the population has been vaccinated, and some people are receiving booster shots. However, about 90% of the population in low-income countries still have not been vaccinated. In addition, despite the greater output gap in emerging and developing economies, due to the tightening of the financing environment and the increased risk of changes in inflation expectations, they are canceling policy support more quickly. 