Under the background that housing financing has basically returned to normal, financial data in October has attracted market attention.
According to the judgment of comprehensive institutions, the new RMB loans in October are expected to exceed 689.8 billion yuan in the same period last year, and the growth rate of social financing is also expected to stabilize.
News reporters learned from close to the regulatory authorities that the scale of real estate loans in October did indeed rebound significantly from the month-on-month and year-on-year basis. The financing of real estate by financial institutions has basically returned to normal.
Previously, Zou Lan, Director of the Financial Market Department of the Central Bank, said at the third quarter financial statistics release that some financial institutions had “There are some misunderstandings in the financing management rules, which require that the balance of interest-bearing debts of “red file” enterprises shall not be increased. The misunderstanding is that banks shall not issue new development loans. After the company’s sales repayments have repaid the loans, new projects that should have been reasonably supported cannot be obtained. When it comes to loans, to a certain extent, some enterprises have tightened their capital chains. In response to the above situation, a real estate finance work symposium was held at the end of September to guide major banks to accurately grasp and implement the real estate financial prudential management system, maintain the stable and orderly distribution of real estate credit, and maintain the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
As of October, Zhang Yu, chief macro analyst at Huachuang Securities, believes that in recent days, the policy authorities have repeatedly proposed “satisfaction with reasonable development loans for real estate companies.” It is expected that the decline in the year-on-year growth of medium and long-term corporate loans in October will improve marginally. From the perspective of the sales data of commercial housing in 30 cities, real estate sales in October were basically the same as those in September. The margins of mortgage lines have been relaxed, and the situation of further deterioration in the year-on-year sales of commercial housing has stabilized. It is estimated that the new credit in October is expected to be about 0.82 trillion yuan.
Industrial Research believes that from the perspective of credit, credit risk incidents of real estate companies have frequently occurred recently. In order to reduce the financial pressure of real estate enterprises and avoid the spread of credit risks, the loan quota for housing may be relaxed, which will drive the steady growth of credit balance. It is estimated that new RMB loans will be 0.75 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.91 trillion yuan from the previous month.
“The rate of mortgage loan lending in October will be faster than before, and now the overall number of orders received is less.” A person from the credit department of a bank in Shanghai said According to the news, real estate development loans are still mainly aimed at high-quality customers, and it is also required to avoid a one-size-fits-all situation.
In terms of the scale of social financing, the market predicts that the growth rate is expected to bottom out and rebound, and the new scale in October is expected to exceed 1.6 trillion.
The gold company predicts that the new social financing in October may be about 1.74 trillion yuan, an increase of about 350 billion yuan from the same period last year, and the year-on-year growth rate has rebounded from 10.0% to 10.1%. Among them, the net financing of government bonds in October was 784 billion yuan. An increase of 290 billion yuan compared to the same period last year. However, the net issuance of corporate bonds has decreased year-on-year, and the contraction of non-standard financing may still be relatively strong.
China Merchants Securities is expected to press in October. The new financing volume was 1.6 trillion yuan, an increase of about 200 billion yuan over the same period last year. The growth rate slightly increased by 0.1 percentage point from the previous value to 10.1%. The growth rate of social financing entered the upward channel, but the upward speed was relatively slow. , It is expected that credit will stabilize year-on-year, and corporate bonds will grow less year-on-year, but government bonds will increase year-on-year to form a positive support.
In the broad sense of liquidity, Zhang Yu believes that real estate The marginal loosening of financing supervision will form marginal support for M2. In October, M2 is expected to be about 8.3% year-on-year. However, considering that the sales of commercial housing have not shown any significant improvement, in addition, under the economic downturn scenario, the willingness of enterprises to invest is weak. It is expected that M1 will continue to be in October Weakened to around 3.3%.