After the central bank’s continuous large-scale net investment helped the funds to cross the end of the quarter smoothly, the market generally believed that the liquidity gap in April was not large, but expectations for RRR cuts were still high.
Essence Securities believes that the government work report proposes that “a prudent monetary policy should be flexible and appropriate, and liquidity should be kept reasonably sufficient”. In the case of weak financing needs of entities, the central bank will It is still necessary to maintain the “moderate growth” of new credit and “continue to ease the three constraints of liquidity, capital and interest rates on bank credit supply”. Considering that the central bank’s liquidity supply has continued to send a more friendly signal to the capital side in recent months, In March, the bill rate fell again, reflecting the weak financing demand and the small funding gap in April. It is expected that the funding level in April is expected to remain stable.
Northeast Securities pointed out that the core factor that dominated inter-bank liquidity in April was changes in fiscal deposits. Fiscal force will form support for excess reserves, so there will be no obvious liquidity gap in fiscal revenue and expenditure in April. Combining the influence of the other four factors, it is estimated that the inter-bank liquidity gap in April is only 584.3 billion yuan, of which 320 billion yuan is due to open market operations, and there is little pressure on liquidity.
Specifically, among the five factors affecting excess reserves, fiscal deposits are expected to only withdraw 387.4 billion yuan, and open market operations will draw 320 billion yuan, M0, inventory In terms of cash, about 165.1 billion yuan will be released to the inter-bank market, and 42 billion yuan may be withdrawn in terms of bank payment standards. Small fluctuations in foreign exchange funds have little impact on liquidity.
Although the liquidity gap is not large, the market’s RRR cut expectations are still strong.
Tianfeng Securities pointed out that under static calculations, the pressure on funds in April is not large, but credit should be relaxed, from providing long-term stable sources of funds and stabilizing the cost of bank liabilities. From the perspective, especially observing the trend of CD volume and price since February, the central bank’s RRR cut in April is still expected.
CITIC Securities pointed out that there is a shortage of funds in the banking system and the pressure on the debt side is relatively large. In addition to the estimated liquidity gap, the recent price trend of interbank certificates of deposit reflects the bank’s position on the debt side. Still under pressure. Both the RRR cut and the deposit rate reform can alleviate the problem. According to estimates, there was a funding gap of about 300 billion yuan in April, and the interest rate gap between the interbank deposit certificate and MLF has returned to the level before the announcement of the RRR cut on December 6, 2021. These factors All are likely to be triggers for RRR cuts; in addition, in addition to RRR cuts, the adjustment and reform of deposit interest rates may also have a certain cost-cutting effect.
It can be seen that when the central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee expressed interest rates in the first quarter of 2022, it paid more attention to the increase in the cost of banks’ liabilities compared with the fourth quarter of last year.
The meeting proposed to improve the formation and transmission mechanism of market-oriented interest rates, optimize the central bank’s policy interest rate system, strengthen the supervision of deposit interest rates, focus on stabilizing the cost of bank liabilities, and give full play to the reform of loan market quotation interest rates efficiency, and promote the reduction of the comprehensive financing cost of enterprises.
Bank of Communications Financial Research Center believes that the current proactive fiscal policy has not yet exerted its force. In order to cope with the weakening demand, it is necessary to implement tax rebates and reductions as soon as possible while increasing stable growth. taxi. It is recommended to increase the implementation of money and credit, and it is still necessary to cut the reserve ratio and interest rates in a timely manner, effectively expand the scale of new loans, and give full play to the effect of easing credit.