< img ALT = "on August 18, the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar depreciated to 6.7965 at the lowest point during the session. Image" style = "width: 600px;" src=" https://imagecloud.thepaper.cn/thepaper/image/211/515/801.jpg ">
on August 18, the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar depreciated to 6.7965 at the lowest point during the session. Image data chart < / P > with the further deepening of the divergence of China US monetary policy caused by the reduction of domestic policy interest rate and the slight recovery of the US dollar index, the fluctuation of RMB against the US dollar exchange rate has significantly increased this week. < br > < div class =" height "> < / div > on August 18, the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar depreciated to 6.7965 at the lowest point during the session, and closed at 6.7925 at 16:30, 168 basis points lower than that of the previous trading day. Since this week, the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has dropped by 576 basis points, with a cumulative depreciation of 0.85%. < br > < div class =" contheight "> < / div > in terms of the central price, the central price of RMB against the US dollar has dropped by 389 basis points in the last four trading days. < br > < div class =" contheight " "> < / div > the exchange rate of offshore RMB against the US dollar, which reflects the expectation of international investors, has dropped by more than 600 basis points this week and fell below the 6.80 level. < br > < div class =" height "> < / div> “The unexpected drop in MLF interest rate has opened up the market’s expectation of downward interest rate. The pressure on the RMB exchange rate on Monday and Tuesday was obvious, but there was no continuous decline. The spot exchange rate rebounded yesterday. In addition, the latest announcement of the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting is more dove than the statement after the interest rate meeting. For the time being, we have not seen a strong depreciation expectation.” Said a foreign exchange trader of a joint-stock bank in Shanghai< Br > < div class = "height" > < / div > as for the reasons for the decline of the RMB, the joint chief economist of CITIC Securities clearly pointed out that after the unexpected interest rate cut by the central bank on August 15, the RMB weakened following the logic of weak economic fundamentals superimposed on the divergence of monetary policies between China and the United States, and the weak economic fundamentals may be more dominant. In his opinion, at the current time, the reversal of interest rate difference between China and the United States caused by the divergence of monetary policy may cause emotional disturbance to the RMB< Br > < div class = "height" > < / div > CICC pointed out that, generally speaking, although the RMB exchange rate may be more flexible in the short term due to the impact of the unexpected interest rate cut, it still does not deviate from the scope of two-way fluctuations, and it is difficult to repeat the unilateral devaluation from April to May. After the expectation of economic stabilization is more clear, the inflow of northward funds may drive the exchange rate to rise. In the short term, the US dollar / RMB exchange rate may still fluctuate in both directions around 6.75< Br > < div class = "height" > < / div > in the view of CICC, the 10 basis point interest rate reduction of the MLF may not bring obvious pressure on RMB depreciation. The reasons are: first, the MLF interest rate reduction helps to stabilize the growth expectation; Second, the interest rate channel has limited impact on the US dollar / RMB exchange rate; Third, foreign exchange settlement and sales by traders are becoming a force to stabilize the RMB exchange rate< Br > < div class = "height" > < / div > clearly points out: “considering the basic account in the balance of payments (‘current account ‘+’ direct investment ‘) The favorable balance can still provide a solid support for the RMB. After the interest rate reduction, the worsening of the interest rate inversion between China and the United States did not cause significant foreign capital outflow from the stock and bond markets, the continuation of the MLF contraction or the tightening of the short-term liquidity of the RMB. We believe that there is no need to over trade the impact of the divergence of China US monetary policy and the worsening of the interest rate inversion between China and the United States on the RMB. After the release of sentiment, the RMB may return to shock, The key to the follow-up trend still lies in the signal that the domestic economic fundamentals are expected to recover, the durability of export resilience, and the trend of the US dollar index. “< Br > < div class = "height" > < / div > Wang Chunying, deputy director of the State Administration of foreign exchange and spokesperson, pointed out in looking forward to the future market this week that there are still many unstable and uncertain factors in the external environment, but China will continue to effectively coordinate the epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, and the domestic economy will continue to recover. The long-term good fundamentals will not change. At the same time, China’s foreign exchange market has become more resilient and has the foundation and conditions to continue to operate smoothly.