The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) stated in its latest issue of “Short-Term Energy Outlook” that, under the assumption that OPEC + will not re-implement the production cut agreement, the United States will again become a net importer of crude oil and petroleum products in the third quarter of 2020 Countries, and continue to maintain the status of net importer for most months before the end of 2021.
The global pandemic of the new crown epidemic has led to major changes in the supply and demand pattern of energy fuels. In particular, the price of crude oil-the contraction of economic activity caused by the epidemic and the sudden surge in supply after the suspension of OPEC + production cuts, caused the price of oil to fall sharply since the beginning of 2020. EIA’s outlook on natural gas and electricity also runs through similar uncertainties. In view of the fact that the oil-producing countries have not yet reached an actual production cut agreement, EIA assumes that OPEC + will not re-implement the production cut agreement during the forecast period.
In September 2019, the United States exported 89,000 barrels of crude oil and petroleum products daily compared with imports, becoming the first crude oil and petroleum products since its monthly record in 1973 Net exporter. In February of this year, the United States’ net oil export volume reached 1.79 million barrels per day, and it still maintained its status as a net exporter. This situation may continue until May this year. EIA predicts that the United States will re-enter the net importer of crude oil and petroleum products in the third quarter of this year, and will continue for most months before next year.
This conclusion is based on an increase in net imports of crude oil and a decrease in net exports of petroleum products. As U.S. crude oil production declines and crude oil available for export decreases, imports are expected to increase. In terms of petroleum products, net exports will reach the lowest level in the third quarter, when the operating rate of US refineries will also be significantly reduced due to shrinking demand. The report predicts that US oil imports and exports will be basically the same in 2020. By 2021, the daily average of net imports will reach 1.4 million barrels.
The EIA expects the average price of Brent crude oil futures in March to be US $ 32 / barrel, a decline of US $ 24 / barrel from the February average price, the highest since January 2016 The lowest monthly average price. The agency predicts that the average price of Brent crude oil futures in 2020 will be US $ 33 / barrel (down US $ 10 / barrel from last month ’s forecast), a sharp decline from US $ 64 in 2019. However, due to the decline in global oil inventories and the upward push in oil prices, Brent oil prices will rebound to US $ 46 / barrel in 2021 (down by US $ 10 / barrel from last month ’s forecast).
The EIA estimates that the average global consumption of petroleum and other liquid fuels in the first quarter of 2020 will be 94.4 million barrels / day, down 5.6 million barrels / day from the same period last year. 2020In 2010, global demand for petroleum and liquid fuels will decrease by 5.2 million barrels per day, but global liquid fuel inventories will increase by an average of 3.9 million barrels per day. The inventory in the first half of 2020 will reach the highest level, rising rapidly at 5.7 million barrels / day in the first quarter, and further increasing to 11.4 million barrels / day in the second quarter.
For the United States, EIA believes that the new coronavirus epidemic inhibits travel and has a major impact on economic activity, which will lead to a sharp decline in US liquid fuel demand in the first half of 2020. The biggest negative impact will appear in the second quarter, then gradually alleviate in the next 18 months. In the second quarter, the average daily gasoline consumption in the United States was 7.1 million barrels, a decrease of 1.7 million barrels / day on the basis of the first quarter, and gradually recovered to 8.9 million barrels / day in the second half of the year. From April to September, the peak season for summer gasoline consumption, the average retail price of gasoline is expected to be US $ 1.58 / gallon, lower than US $ 2.72 / gallon for the same period last year. The EIA predicts that US gasoline retail prices will reach their lowest level in 20 years in the second quarter of 2020. Since then, as travel and business activities have slowly recovered, prices have gradually increased.
As oil prices fell, EIA also adjusted down the domestic crude oil production proposed in the March outlook. The EIA predicts that the average US crude oil production will be 11.8 million barrels / day in 2020, a decrease of 500,000 barrels / day from 2019, and a further decrease of 700,000 barrels / day in 2021. If the forecast is accurate, 2020 will see the first decline in annual US crude oil production since 2016. Generally speaking, there is a lag of about 6 months in the impact of price fluctuations on production. However, the current situation of the market and the spread of the epidemic may shorten this lag. Some manufacturers have announced plans to reduce capital expenditures and drilling levels.
Continued low oil prices and shrinking demand have led to domestic oil and gas pressure in the United States.
According to the EIA Petroleum Data Weekly Report (as of April 3), US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic oil inventories) increased significantly by 15.2 million barrels from the previous week Higher than market expectations of 9.67 million barrels, this last week’s US commercial crude oil inventories reached 484.4 million barrels, 2% higher than the average of the same period in the past five years. Over the same period, total US gasoline inventories increased by 10.5 million barrels.
EIA data also showed that the average daily processing volume of US crude oil refineries last week was 13.6 million barrels, a decrease of 1.3 million barrels from the previous month; the average operating rate of the refinery was 75.6%, Significantly lower than the previous week ’s 82.3%; the average daily crude oil import was 5.9 million barrels, a decrease of 173,000 barrels from the previous month. In addition, the United States last SundayCrude oil production continued to remain at a high of 13 million barrels.