This article comes from the WeChat public account: China Fund report (ID: chinafundnews) , author: Taylor , The original title: “Just now, an epic crash!” US crude oil plunged 50%, only 9 dollars! Here is the negative oil price, sell a bucket of money! “Trader is completely ignorant” title picture from: Visual China
A shares are lively during the day and the US market is also lively at night.
U.S. oil futures have been screened. U.S. oil May crude oil futures fell below $ 10 / barrel, a drop of up to 45%, a record low since April 1986.
As of press time, WTI May crude oil futures fell below US $ 9 / barrel, and the intraday decline extended to 52.04%.
Even the investor Dan Bin was dumbfounded, and said on Weibo, if anyone saw a broken 20 yuan / barrel, fell a lot and went to the bottom, maybe he would be “dead” and invest in the industry It’s not impossible, “There are eighteen hells under the basement” …
An important reason is that the crude oil storage capacity is close to full load, whether it is a land storage facility or a floating facility (oil tankers, etc.) There is much storage space, so even with such a low crude oil price, the long position of the May contract cannot be delivered after the expiration of the position. Therefore, before the contract expires, the phenomenon of excessive killing occurs, and it causes At special times, the cost of swapping positions is abnormally high, which is a major blow to the bulls.
Falling! U.S. oil futures plunged by more than 50%
According to reports, oil prices are still under pressure. The global blockade triggered a decline in demand, resulting in a serious oversupply and it is difficult for countries to find places to store oil.
The short-term surplus is very serious, causing the US May crude oil futures to fall 45% to US $ 10 per barrel. Brent crude oil futures have no similar storage issues, with the June contract only falling by $ 0.25 to $ 27.83 per barrel.
An analyst pointed out that the direct reason for the sharp decline in WTI crude oil futures in May was a rare shift of positions and months.
Due to the different futures prices for different periods, when the futures contract shifts to another month, the price will usually jump. This gap is not an important event orThe sudden rise or fall caused by the unexpected accident was only because US crude oil executed a new contract and re-priced.
According to the analysis of market institutions, under normal circumstances, the price difference between the two futures contracts that are about to change months will not be too large. But this time, the difference between the WTI May contract and the June contract has reached $ 7, which means that the futures contract rolls from one month to the next month. If investors want to maintain the same position, the cost will increase by 30%, which is very rare.
The May contract will be delivered on April 21 (02:30 AM 22nd Beijing time) , most brokers will be in April Exhibition period from 16th to 20th. In order to avoid being forced to close positions, some traders often close the May contract in advance and re-establish the position under the June contract, resulting in a lot of selling in the May contract and a sharp drop in prices.
In addition, a series of news hit the May contract: the first is its extremely weak crude oil demand. The latest research data shows that in April, global crude oil demand will shrink by about 29 million barrels per day, and in 2020 global oil demand will plummet to a record 9.3 million barrels per day. Both figures are fatal to oil prices.
Followed by the urgent storage space: US Energy Information Administration (EIA) Data released in the middle of the week show that as of the week of April 10, U.S. crude oil inventories (excluding strategic oil reserves) increased by 19.24 million barrels from the previous week, and the value of U.S. crude oil inventories changed for the 12th consecutive week. Continue to set a record high. Oklahoma Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 5.724 million barrels, the previous value increased by 6.417 million barrels; Cushing crude oil inventories change value has recorded growth for 6 consecutive weeks.
This series of numbers means that traders will soon have insufficient space to store crude oil. This leads to nearThe price of monthly contracts is much lower than that of far-month contracts, reflecting the expectation of oversupply.
For traders, if you do not close the May long contract, it means that you will receive oil spot, and only a few days to tell the seller how to receive the goods. For most traders who have not been in touch with physical transactions, it is simply a lively crude oil trading version of “online dating.” At this time, it is basically impossible to go to Cushing to find oil storage space.
Investor comments
What is even more shocking is that Canadian crude oil has returned to zero, and Canadian crude oil has even appeared “negative oil prices”, the price per barrel fell to minus 0.01 dollars. Selling a barrel of oil has to be paid for.
As the global crude oil inventory space is nearly full, in some areas where crude oil transportation is difficult, crude oil producers must pay crude oil buyers a sum of money to allow buyers to take away excess crude oil, so that crude oil trading prices fall below zero , Also known as “negative oil prices.”
The Wall Street Journal reported that overproduction of crude oil puts pressure on crude oil inventory space and crude oil pipelines. Goldman Sachs (Goldman Sachs) Head of Futures Research Kerui (Jeffrey Currie) said that in some areas where tankers cannot be used as offshore storage space, crude oil producers are forced to take extreme measures to get rid of Inventory pressure, including paying for crude oil buyers to take oil away, “it will be like a highway, and there will be blockages when there are too many cars on the road.”
The energy sector plummeted, dragging down US stocks
The plunge in oil prices caused panic in the US stock market. The VIX index, which measures market panic, rose more than 9% at 42 points. As of 9:45 EST, (21:45, Beijing time, 20th) , the Dow fell 1.6%, and the S & P 500 index fell nearly 1.3 %, The Nasdaq Composite Index fell more than 0.7%. However, the current decline has narrowed, and the Nasdaq has turned up.
In the energy sector, shares of Chevron and Exxon Mobil fell more than 5% at a time, leading the Dow. In addition, Western Petroleum and Halliburton both fell more than 10%. The energy sector in the S & P 500 index fell more than 6% in early trading. But again, the decline has narrowed.
Trader: The change in oil prices is unbelievable, I believe it has reached the bottom
Traders on Wall Street were also shocked by the plunge in oil prices during Monday morning trading. For example, senior investment strategist Peter Boukerval told the media that the changes in the oil market are unbelievable because the global oil storage space will be exhausted, but he believes that the current price may already be at the bottom. During the months of June and June, when the local economy reopens, it will support oil prices.
This article comes from the WeChat public account: China Fund Report (ID: chinafundnews) , Author: Taylor