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After coming out of the economic downturn brought about by the epidemic, China is likely to be the strongest growth country in the world.
 

Blackstone has 500,000 employees, but I have always regarded it as a small and micro enterprise.
 

Blackstone ’s culture is not to have bystanders. If you are present, you must speak. You must say your own thoughts, not the thoughts of others.
 

Each of us has something we love and are better at. If you stick to your talented field, you will find that your life will be more successful.

After the epidemic, where will China and the world economy go?

Shen Nanpeng: Good evening. I think we should first talk about the overall economic situation. Mr. Su, what should we do to help the global economy resume growth and help people regain confidence after this new crown pandemic?

Su Shimin: The economic situation we are seeing is unprecedented. Countries around the world have previously put forward demands to shut down economic activities to curb the spread of the new coronavirus. And now is the time, just as China has controlled the epidemic, to restart economic activities. I think there are a few things that must be done.

First of all, people are sometimes afraid of returning to work, fearing that they will be infected with viruses from others. Therefore, especially now in Western countries-China may have experienced this stage-what we need is a large-scale virus detection. If you know that there are no problems with the people around you, then you can also know that you will not be infected with the virus. Therefore, I think countries will redouble their efforts to ensure that the amount of testing can be significantly increased. If it can be done, people can resume work faster. The recovery will not be very slow, but much faster. People will be more confident, and they will be able to return to their normal lives. Therefore, I think the inspection work is very important.

Second, the recovery of Western countries will be later than that of China. At least in Western countries, it will take a year to a year and a half to make breakthroughs in the treatment of new coronary diseases or to finally develop a vaccine. Therefore, for the world, if it is a year to a year and a half, people do not have to fear at all. They should return to work. The recovery process will not be smooth, because all sectors of the economy cannot resume work synchronously and achieve the same results. If we can speed up this process, the situation in the world will bebetter.

China is already at a different stage. China has launched a strong anti-epidemic work. However, this morning in the US, China reported that China ’s economy fell 6.7 percentage points (actually 6.8%) in the first quarter. As far as anyone ’s record is concerned, this is the first time the Chinese economy has experienced a downturn. Therefore, people should regard it as the bottom and a great opportunity for China’s economic growth in the future.

Shen Nanpeng: Some countries are planning to move their production and supply chain back to China. What is your opinion on this? Does this indicate that the world is going against globalization? What do you think of the future development direction of the world?

Su Shimin: I think this is not just a statement about globalization. I think what happened is that many companies have experienced serious misalignment in their ability to obtain product supply from China, because China is the manufacturing capital of the world. I know a boss in the fashion industry. He said, “My supply is 100% from China. I can’t get anything now-my company is going to go bankrupt because I can’t get it at all.”

Therefore, once this situation has been encountered, and it has nothing to do with government directives, ordinary businessmen will say that I can no longer concentrate my risk exposure in one place-no matter what country-I You must diversify your supply chain. I think that people from all over the world have learned this lesson, not necessarily against China.

Maybe other countries that closed their borders. Closing the border was definitely the first time in my lifetime. Except for the World War, it was the first time that the supply could not be obtained from other countries. Therefore, the effect it brings is that it awakens almost every businessman. At least they need to re-examine their supply chain status. At present, I think what may happen is that instead of withdrawing existing business, it is better to say that incremental business may return to more places closer to the country. Because businessmen from all walks of life are saying, I just do n’t want to concentrate all business in one country.

Shen Nanpeng: Do you think that whether it is an industry or a country, it should obviously strive to optimize its supply chain and avoid excessive concentration? This is the most beneficial to the country and industry.

Su Shimin: Yes, I think so. But even so, those highly competitive countries, such as China, will still be in an advantageous position. The only question is, how much share will they occupy in the supply chain in the future? Of course, some countries have shifted production to China to meet domestic consumption in China. After coming out of the economic downturn brought about by the epidemic, China is likely to be the strongest growth country in the world. Therefore, China ’s economy has naturalDevelopment advantages, these advantages continue to be internalized.

Shen Nanpeng: I agree. Obviously, China has many huge advantages, such as in terms of industrial layout.

Su Shimin: In understanding the Chinese market, you are the top investor in the world. Regarding investment opportunities in China, which industries or regions do you think are more interesting? I can also learn from it.

Shen Nanpeng: Thank you. Blackstone is very active in China. Over the past 15 years, we have been investing in China and have experienced several economic cycle ups and downs. Many leading companies are able to get out of trouble because they continue to grow bigger and stronger in their respective industries. Even in the face of the “darkest moment”, they can take the initiative to gain a higher market share.

I think the same is true for investors. The current environment actually provides us with some great opportunities for us to support those long-distance champions in various industries. To talk about the secret of our success in China over the past 10 to 15 years, it is that we continue to “strengthen China.” Now is a good time to reinvest in China in many industries. And I think China clearly has many attractive investment themes, the most important of which is around technology and innovation. You also know that digital technologies, including the Internet, artificial intelligence, and the Internet of Things, are transforming all aspects of China’s service industry and manufacturing, and in the context of the new crown epidemic, these transformation processes may be further accelerated.

In China, the public health system will be further upgraded. The health care industry is expected to grow faster, as investment from the private and public sectors will increase. This will cover vaccines, innovative drugs, medical devices, medical services, etc. In the broader life and health field, we will also see many new innovations and growth.

Uncertainty is rising, how should entrepreneurs and entrepreneurs act?

Shen Nanpeng: Now let us come back and talk about your book. You talked about a lot of content related to core values ​​and cultural concepts. So, what core values ​​are necessary for successful entrepreneurs? How should entrepreneurs respond to the environment that is now apparently increasingly uncertain?

Su Shimin: I think that in the process of working with entrepreneurs and starting your own business, you must also realize that there are some core values. The first is that you must be able to withstand a lot of frustration and suffering. You have to have a very strong mind, Stable emotions and tremendous energy, because you will continue to encounter setbacks.

Second, you need to learn from your mistakes and debug yourself. People make mistakes, but most people who make mistakes may pretend that these mistakes never happened. They do not analyze the mistakes made. They will not analyze errors, find the crux, and avoid making the same mistake again. I think this is another core value that entrepreneurs should have.

Again, there is a dream worth pursuing. Just imitating what others are doing, yes, but it is not enough for having a great dream. Therefore, I think that entrepreneurs need to look at the world and think about how to make better use of their talents to create things that do not yet exist, but will be rushed by others if you break them.

Another core value, or core competitiveness, is that entrepreneurs generally have to be persuasive. They must be able to convince customers, suppliers, and others to join their team. Therefore, it is difficult for an entrepreneur to succeed alone. They must allow all these parties to form a system. They must understand the ways and means of dealing with others. So, these are the values ​​I mentioned above. Of course, in many cases, it is best to have a basic understanding of finance and numbers to ensure that you do n’t run out of money when starting a business.

Finally there is awe. Fear is very useful, because it can not only make you redouble your efforts, but also help you avoid some possible mistakes. If you are afraid of failure, you may use this awe to make some risk-reducing decisions that you might not normally consider. Without adopting these risk controls, you may fail. Therefore, these are the essential qualities of a good entrepreneur.

Shen Nanpeng: Do you have any suggestions for entrepreneurs? Compared with the past, we are entering a world full of uncertainty. Do you have any specific suggestions for these entrepreneurs?

Su Shimin: You also know that I have experienced many economic downturns, maybe five or six times in my career. They all looked scary at the time. This time it looked extreme. You will think, well, people should not hide at home. People are social animals. They will want to get out of their homes, they will want to go back to work. Now that we know people’s tendencies, and we know that the outbreak cycle may be at most a year and a half. During this period, medical staff and medication will continue to improve. So, we know that people will resume work. We can be sure that once the resumption of work begins,The world economy will move towards recovery. Therefore, it is important not to have an emotional response to this, but to look at it objectively and ask what will be recovered first? What will be the last recovered? What will be adjusted and not restored?

More people will meet online, just like your conversation. Therefore, this may impact industries such as tourism, but it is beneficial to the technology industry. For entrepreneurs, you must form your own view of such a new world pattern, understand where the demand is, and how to raise capital to invest in some areas that may succeed in the future. When you think about a career that will succeed, you will act decisively and make a full investment commitment of 100% to 120%. This way you will succeed, and others may not survive the winter.

This is the nature of bold action when you see the general trend. If you move before the big trend, you have a high probability of success. Most people are scared to do nothing.

Why “culture is more important than management”?

Shen Nanpeng: You mentioned in the book that corporate culture is more important than management. Can you elaborate on this idea? How does Blackstone shape a differentiated culture that is different from other companies? What measures have you taken to establish this very unique culture?

Su Shimin: You know, no matter how good it is, no one can know all kinds of skills. You ca n’t control what everyone does, the only thing you can do is teach them good values. Teach them your faith, let them retain the core of your faith, and give them the autonomy to do things. We have various principles that must be adhered to in Blackstone. If we want to recruit people, we must recruit very smart people. We must recruit honest and upright people. We firmly believe in high-level cooperation. I believe in a zero-defect culture, which means you can make mistakes in your judgment, but you can never make mistakes in your work. Work must always be accurate. When you leave your desk, the results of the work handed over to others must be perfect.

I believe, and we caution everyone that collective decision making is better than individual decision making. And the decision should be based on in-depth analysis. In any decision-making process, all risk factors should be listed, and then 6 to 8 very smart people should be called to form a team and let them analyze this information in an open manner.

Our black stone culture is not to have bystanders. If you are present, you must speak. You must say your own thoughts, not the thoughts of others.

I do n’t believe there are so-called “paying viewers” ​​in the enterprise. You are here to contribute to the meeting, not to sit there and watch others use their talents. We will have a very heated debate in Blackstone-this is part of our corporate culture, and every decision will be made-but never for individuals. Because in most organizations, if you give a different opinion from another person, in the eyes of others, you are actually attacking another person. This effect is not good. Therefore, people are reluctant to tell the truth.

But in Blackstone, we create an environment where you must tell the truth and tell your true thoughts, not for individuals. Once everyone knows that every meeting is like this, you can appreciate the benefits of brainstorming, which is very important. Moreover, we also have other core values, which is to help society and give employees the opportunity to help organizations outside the company that they care about personally. And we treat everyone in the company like family.

I regard Blackstone as a small and micro enterprise. Now, we have more than 500,000 employees. The parent company has about 3,000 people, and then the others are scattered among the companies and assets we hold. But I tried my best to ensure that Blackstone ’s executive team took time every Monday to hold a video conference with everyone in each business line. Because if you want to communicate your values ​​and thinking about the world, you can’t send an email. You have to appear in person. The video conference has changed the way companies are managed. Therefore, for example, a meeting with all employees of the private equity investment group, followed by the real estate business group, then the credit group, and the tactical opportunity group. The four of us spent a whole day sitting in the same room, meeting with about 250 to 300 professionals and employees from various business lines. We will sort out everything that happened in the world and let everyone have comprehensive information. Even if you are only 23 years old, the information you have is not inferior to the company’s senior employees. We strive to treat everyone as the most important person in the company. This is a very American style, very flat, not vertical.

When you treat very talented people as extremely important people, then they will pay their full attention to the company’s interests, because their thinking is unified with you. Therefore, this style of building an organization is very powerful, and each employee will reflect your values ​​when they respond independently. You don’t need to tell them what to say. They knowWhat to say.

Shen Nanpeng: This is a very unique corporate culture. And for a large organization like Blackstone, it is obviously not easy to make all employees feel that they are part of a family. I think this is a very powerful corporate culture. You mentioned talent several times and said that you want to recruit first-rate team members. You said in the book, “You can use 9 points of talent to build a successful business, but you need to use 10 points of talent to develop new businesses. They are all self-driven.” So, how do you know someone is a “10 point” talent? How did you evaluate?

Su Shimin: Nan Peng, you are a “10 points” talent. How do I know you are 10 points? One criterion I measure is that for people over the age of 40, personal reputation is their ability. If people who know you say you are amazing, then I probably think you are amazing too. The situation I actually learned is the same, you are a very amazing person.

Shen Nanpeng: Thank you.

Su Shimin: People are more difficult to judge when they are young, because they haven’t been completely finalized. I have interviewed many people in my life. I have been working in the business world for more than 50 years. Interview is one of my favorite things. I like it because when a job applicant walks in, it is difficult to predict what will happen. So, this is like an adventure. It is not like your other daily work.

Usually I will get the resume or resume of the candidate. Usually, at least in Western countries, especially for young people, they will describe their background, and then there will be an “interest” column at the bottom of the resume. Maybe they have climbed Everest, maybe they are the best swimmers, won silver medals in the Olympic Games, or they are American chess champions under four years old-in short, some interesting facts. So my experience is that since they put this information in their resume, then I will ask them. I always ask, because this is the usual way of expressing friendliness, and because they seem to make such a request. Then the content of our chat will turn to other aspects. No matter what the content is, I will follow the lead.

Sometimes, I may have done a very interesting thing just before the interview. For example, the video we made today will spread throughout China. I will say to the next person who sees me, oh my god, I just did something amazing. I just felt that I was having a conversation with 100 million Chinese audience. How interesting is it? If the other party does n’t answer me, it ’s a bit strange, because I ’m not describing what a person does every day. Therefore, my experience is that if the other party does not respond at all, it means that his curiosity is not strong. The person I want to recruit is SiBecause they are extraordinary talents.

What investment and life principles can help you go through the cycle?

Shen Nanpeng: This suggestion is very good. How business managers should talk to job seekers. The reason why you can make these judgments and decisions during interviews is because you have always had very successful investment results. Let us move on to the next topic.

As you mentioned in the book, you have a business guiding principle that is “don’t lose money forever”. Can you explain in detail? Are there other investment principles that you want to share with everyone, especially the younger generation?

Su Shimin: Of course. Don’t lose money can be compared to the “do not hurt the patient” when the doctor makes an oath. That is, don’t let the patient enter your clinic, you do some treatment, and then kill the patient. right? The third investment we made was to invest in an iron and steel distribution company. When something went wrong, I also learned a truth: Investors hate you for losing money most. If you don’t make enough money in certain investments, it doesn’t matter. It was just a mistake. If you lose money from investors, they will be incredibly angry with you, and it is almost impossible to give you additional capital. Therefore, you must be very careful when making decisions. This does not mean not taking risks. However, when you make any decision, you have to make sure that you are not taking risks.

The reason why you do this is because you are stupid from the beginning, you just feel that you are not taking risks, or you have done your homework, analyzed the possible problems, and have discussed And there are plans to remove those things that obviously hurt any new business, new organization or new investment project, and design solutions to avoid them.

And I think that investment imbalance is important-the opportunity to lose money is equal to the opportunity to make money-in my opinion is a ridiculous investment method. Even large sums of money. My industry is not the venture capital you are engaged in. Someone in the venture capital industry always does this. Sometimes their performance can be very dazzling and amazing. But my experience is that when you are managing large-scale funds-Blackstone is in charge of assets exceeding 500 billion US dollars. For private equity investment, this is definitely a huge sum of money. In fact, Blackstone ’s assets are the largest in the world, and other companies cannotComparing-Our responsibility is to always achieve the best performance for investors and use the process I talked about before, that is to publicly debate all the basic assumptions. This allows us to do roughly without losing money.

Before the current financial crisis, it remains to be seen how to get out of this crisis. In our past 700 investment projects, we only had one bankruptcy-a catastrophic loss. This is a very impressive record. Imagine that you have acquired so many assets that every transaction requires borrowing a lot of capital. Of the 700 investments, only one went bankrupt, indicating that we can still achieve no loss of money.

Shen Nanpeng: Indeed. I think each of these 700 projects contains certain risks, but you have analyzed and managed these risks through various methods. These are amazing numbers and records. In addition to “never lose money”, if you still choose an investment principle to share with you, which one would you choose?

Su Shimin: All right. Choose to enter a growth industry. If you are investing in a field that performs well and the future performance will exceed the field where you invested on the day, you will find a way to success. If you invest in a target that you think is cheap but has poor growth, then if something goes wrong, you ca n’t succeed.

This is another principle I want to talk about. Nanpeng, I will use Blackstone’s real estate business as an example. When we saw the Internet sing forward, we shot the assets held in large shopping centers and shopping malls. In Western countries, it is wise not to own such assets. We took the cash out and the additional capital, and bought warehousing assets. Why should we buy a warehouse? Because all Internet sales companies, whether Alibaba or JD.com, need warehouses to prepare goods for delivery and deliver the goods to customers. Therefore, warehousing assets have become the best performers in the real estate field globally. In the past ten years, we have been the world’s largest purchaser of warehousing assets. Our investment strategy is to identify the growth field and the direction of social change, dispose of assets that are considered to be weak, and invest huge capital in the themes we have identified.

Shen Nanpeng: Yes, it is better to go down the wind in a growth industry than to move forward. There are many young people in China reading your book, not just for investment, but also for seeking advice that is beneficial to their career and life. If only they could be given a suggestion, what would it be?

Su Shimin: I think one of the suggestions, especially for the younger generation, is to devote to your favorite career. You will find that in life, if you can find some career that you are born with-youThe interests and abilities are suitable for a certain type of work-then you can make this career to the extreme. Give an interesting example. There is a basketball player in the United States called Michael Jordan. He should be the best basketball player ever, an amazing player. After his father passed away, he was very depressed. He gave up basketball and tried another sport-baseball. But Jordan is a bad baseball player. In this example, the best player in one sport chooses to engage in another sport, and the performance is mediocre.

How is this possible? Both are sports. A year and a half later, Jordan decided to go back and play basketball. I went to watch his second game after his return. He hadn’t touched basketball in two years, but he scored 40 points in the second game. This is a particularly high score because he is very talented. Each of us has something we love and are better at. If you stick to your talented field, you will find that your life will be more successful. You will be happier and more likely to have greater success.

Su Shimin: Nan Peng, I would also like to ask: Seeing the current troubles caused by the epidemic to the Chinese economy, what is your primary career suggestion for everyone?

Shen Nanpeng: Whether or not there is interference from the epidemic, this rule has always been applicable. You also made a wonderful elaboration on this, that is, to have a child’s heart for your work and career, and for the things you really love. In addition, I think you can choose to enter an exciting industry-this industry has not only short-term, but also has a good development prospects in the medium and long term. It is recommended that young college graduates pay attention to these job selection standards, because these standards are much more important than salary. For young entrepreneurs, I know that many of them have just set up a company. It is not easy in the current situation. I suggest that they focus on the survival of the company during this extraordinary period. I think the most important thing is to straighten out the company’s cash flow, because this is the only way to ensure that the company can survive. Then, any startup must focus on the product. I think the crisis will pass. If you have a truly differentiated product, you will show a stronger posture in the industry after the storm. I think in the current market environment, you must be resilient and strong, because many excellent companies have actually experienced similar extraordinary times.

Su Shimin: I warn the young people who work in Heishi, they are very lucky to be able to devote themselves to our industry, that is, the investment industry during the current economic disconnection, because they will learn to never blindly believe others about the future Portrayal.

As you mentioned, make sure that the company has enough cash and cash flow to avoid getting into trouble. When young people start out, they will look at the world, see the models they have built, and look forward to them, and they may not have made a plan for the unsuccessful. When I started working-I first started my business in 1969, and then went to business school. After graduating in 1972, I worked for Lehman Brothers. At that time, the US stock market did not rise for 10 years. So I know that the stock will not rise automatically. And even if it goes up, it is a gift, or it may be just a short spring. So, my entire career, because I learned not to believe in others when the environment is not good. Always assume that it may go wrong. Always protect your career.

Shen Nanpeng: There is still a plan ahead.

Su Shimin: Yes. Therefore, the younger generation — young people who have just started working and managers of enterprises, will learn what discipline is and what is often called “risk control” in academia. In the next 10 years, 20 years or even 30 years of career, these principles will benefit them greatly. Even now facing a more difficult period, they should still regard it as an opportunity for education. During this period, they will learn principles that contribute to success.

Shen Nanpeng: Very happy to have today ’s conversation with you. Time relationship, we are about to end. I hope you can return to China as soon as possible and talk face-to-face with your Chinese fans.

Su Shimin: I really want to return to China as soon as possible. I have a “Su Shimin Scholar Project” at Tsinghua University. You know, Su Shimin scholars are now scattered all over the world. From the perspective of international students, everyone wants to come back quickly. We all need to ensure safety, and our government’s job is to help create a safe environment. I hope to return to China as soon as possible.

Shen Nanpeng: Very good. thank you. Thank you very much for taking the time. Take care!