The May Day holiday is over and the A-share trading hours are reopened. Can the A-share market in May continue the rebound in April?

Judging from the performance of overseas markets, within a few days of the domestic market being closed, US stocks, Hong Kong stocks, etc. have experienced a wave of small reversals that steadily increased. The US S & P 500 index fell 2.81% on May 1st local time. After a slight increase of 0.42% on May 4th, the increase after the opening on May 5 expanded to more than 1%. After the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 4.18% on May 4, it opened higher on May 5 and rebounded by 1.08%.

Looking forward to May, the nationwide “two sessions” will be held soon, and the expectation of the “two sessions” market has also become one of the reasons for many investors to see the market outlook.

Surging reporters found out that many brokers revealed optimism when looking at the A-shares in May. Among them, Anxin Securities proposed that A-shares are expected to usher in a “recovery cow” “, China Merchants Securities expects A-shares to come out of the trend of declining and then rising in May.

However, there are also institutions that take a cautious view. Haitong Securities judges that the current market is still bottoming out, and a retracement may still occur after a staged rebound.


Anxin Securities: It is expected to usher in a “recovery bull”

Chen Guo, chief strategy analyst of Anxin Securities, in a report released on the evening of May 5 It is proposed that A shares are expected to usher in a “recovery bull”.

He wrote in the report: “We think the key word for fundamental trends in the next phase is ‘recovery’. With the end of the global economic shutdown, in Supported by unprecedented monetary and fiscal policies, we expect the global economy to recover, and A shares are expected to usher in a “recovery bull”. We believe that the foundation of the “recovery bull” comes from three unexpected expectations: global policy coordination exceeds expectations, economic recovery Exceed expectations, domestic reforms exceed expectations. “

Chen Guo explained that from a policy perspective, the current unprecedented monetary and fiscal policies, the power of these policies is expected to make the economy short-term Back to the right track. From the economic point of view, China’s economic data continues to improve, European economic recovery continues to advance, the US economy is gradually coming out of the lockout, and the process of continuous improvement of global fundamentals is actually better than market expectations.

According to his prediction, A shares will still benefit from liquidity1. The continuous marginal improvement of profitability and risk appetite showed a turbulent upward trend. After the holiday, if the market experienced a callback due to external disturbances, it actively paid attention to the layout opportunities.

Specific to the industry, Chen Guo said that the future economic recovery will make all industries present an upward trend, and structural opportunities will spread from necessary consumption to technology, cycles, and Electing consumption and finance, combining rebound elasticity and medium-term industrial space, tends to use technology as the main line of elasticity offensive. Recent industries that investors can focus on include new energy vehicles and smart driving, cloud computing, the Internet, electronics, military industry, communications, building materials, construction, and brokerages. The themes can focus on independent controllability, satellite Internet, and Hubei regional revitalization.


Haitong Securities: Currently still in the bottom

Xun Yugen, chief strategy analyst of Haitong Securities, research shows that A shares also exist in Sell in May Phenomenon, from 2000 to the present, the Shanghai Stock Index’s benefit from May to October is significantly worse than that from November to April of the following year. In addition, from the statistics of a single month, historically, the market’s winning rate in May is also the lowest.

Xun Yugen believes that the current fundamentals are still weak, and the overall A-share market is still oscillating in the bottom area, that is, bottoming out. In the case of uncertain fundamentals, the market After a phased rebound, it may still retreat again.

He pointed out that the current market is very similar to the first half of 2014. The epidemic has had a major impact on the economy at home and abroad. The recent decline in global stock markets and the collapse of crude oil prices, “08 The arguments of “recurrence of financial crisis” and “recurrence of the 1929 Great Depression” also appeared.

In terms of market pattern, both the first half of 2014 and the current are in 2 wave adjustment. The previous Shanghai Composite Index hit a wave high of 2270 points in September 2013, a high level After the shock, it entered a 2-wave callback at the end of 2013, hit a low of 1974 in March 2014, and then consolidated at 2000-2300 for nearly half a year.

Similarly, on January 4, 2019, the Shanghai Composite Index opened a new round of bull market at 2440 points, and the Shanghai Composite Index 2440-3288 points was a bull market one wave of rise, 3288 points It has been a bullish two-wave callback since the epidemic situation. The two waves have been lengthened. Historically, the adjustment of the two waves has often been more complicated, and it will take some time for the bottom to be polished later.

Xun Yugen said that at 2646 on the Shanghai Composite Index on March 19The “panic bottom” worried about the financial crisis is the bottom area of ​​the bull market’s 2-wave adjustment. From a medium-term perspective, the 2440 point of the Shanghai Composite Index is the starting point of the sixth round of the A-share bull market. This round of the bull market spanning several years has three logics: a bull-bear cycle cycle, corporate profits bottoming out, and large assets tend to the stock market.

He said that the epidemic will not change the trend of the bull market, and it will strengthen its confidence. However, the epidemic situation has indeed disrupted the rhythm of the bull market. It is currently in the tamping and grinding stage of the bull market 2 wave adjustment. The bull market 3 wave rise still needs to accumulate energy.

China Merchants Securities: May be expected to hold back first and then rise

China Merchants Securities Chief Strategy analyst Zhang Xia pointed out in a report released on May 5th that in May, A-shares will be driven by policy expectations, fundamental marginal improvement and ample liquidity. Although external risks are disturbing, they are still expected to maintain resilience. Out of the situation of restraining and then raising.

The report said that in the first half of May, due to new uncertainties in Sino-US relations, market risk appetite was suppressed. As the “two sessions” convene closer and closer to May 21st, due to policy expectations, there is often an improvement in risk appetite before the “two sessions”, and the probability of rising before the meeting increases. The domestic economy continues to improve, and high-frequency data from Meso shows that the economic recovery is still continuing. With the preliminary approval projects gradually entering the construction period, the growth rate of infrastructure investment is expected to pick up. The overseas epidemic situation is gradually being controlled, and the European and American countries have resumed work in May, and overseas demand will usher in marginal improvement. Under the resonance of internal and external demand, corporate earnings are expected to improve significantly in the second quarter. Current market liquidity remains relatively ample.

Looking forward to the market in May, Zhang Xia suggested that investors should configure according to the three keywords of old and new infrastructure, out-of-town consumption, and smart cars.

First, the new and old infrastructure related fields continue to be recommended. The old infrastructure includes building materials, environmental protection, and water affairs. In terms of new infrastructure, although the upward cycle of science and technology was delayed by the epidemic, it will not be absent.

Second, go out and spend. Due to the gradual lifting of travel restrictions at home and abroad, outbound consumption after May 1 is expected to gradually return to normal, investors can focus on air transportation, airport hotels, automobiles, consumer electronics, etc.

Third, new energy vehicles and smart driving, the industry chain involved includes some intelligent electric vehicle transformation OEMs, new energy vehicle industrial chain, intelligent driving, Automotive electronics and other fields.