Source | Earth Knowledge Bureau (ID: diqiuzhishiju)

Author | Science Fan Xuechang

Head Image | shutterstock @ Steve Bruckmann

In early 2020, Trump said in his speech on the conflict with Iran that the United States has achieved energy independence and “does not need oil from the Middle East.” Behind is the shale oil and gas revolution led by the United States-the technology for extracting oil from oil-bearing shale is becoming more mature. With shale oil and gas, the United States has surpassed Russia and Saudi Arabia in some years and has become the world ’s number one oil producer < / strong>, achieved a net export of oil.

The situation beyond everyone’s expectations: the spread of viruses, the entanglement of interests in oil-producing countries, and the radical actions of cutting-edge politicians have caused crude oil futures prices to fall to unprecedented low prices. In the United States, shale oil and gas companies with higher mining costs have encountered a real survival crisis …

What is the shale oil and gas revolution?

Shale is a kind of rock with obvious bedding structure. It is formed after deposition under a certain pressure and temperature. The composition is mainly clay. Different components can be divided into many types, but most of them have low strength and often Cracks, pores.

Crushed shale (Photo: shutterstock @ nikon2888)

Shale oil and gas is formed along with this shale. Kerogen produced by organic matter deposited in shale Generally speaking, if the kerogen has a large hydrogen content, the potential for oil generation is large, if the hydrogen content is small Then there is great potential for generating natural gas.

There are a lot of extremely small gaps and cracks inside the shale, and the shale oil and gas industry has to find a way to “squeeze” them out (picture : Shutterstock @ nikon2888)

The kerogen produces oil and gas slowly under the condition of a certain temperature and pressure. The degree of conversion is called maturity, which can be roughly divided into four stages: immature, oil peak, wet gas and dry gas. The shale in the second stage has a high probability of finding shale oil, and the shale in the fourth stage has a high probability of finding shale gas.

Oil samples from American shale oil wells (Photo: shutterstock @ FreezeFrames)

But fromOn the scale of geological history, the stratum is not stable. Plate drift and orogeny may break the stratum. After the shale layer containing oil and gas is broken, oil and gas may overflow, and the breaking itself is not conducive to the mining economy. Benefit, therefore, the use value of oil-bearing shale in stable formation is greater.

distribution of main plates

Craton is an ancient and stable part of the continental crust, which has hardly changed in the past 500 million years. Above the Craton is a narrow and long sedimentary zone called the foreland basin, which is also less affected by geological activities. The oil shale in these formations is relatively well preserved and the production is high, which is the most commercial potential.


The North American Craton has a huge range, extending north from the Great Central Plains of the United States to the Canadian shield (Photo: Anton Shahrai / shutterstock)

But the same, these high-quality oil and gas fields are often buried deep, and breakthrough technologies are required for mining, and their R & D and operation and maintenance costs are not low. So in the early days of shale oil theory, people thought it was a whimsical technology. Traditional oil and gas experts evaluated it as difficult to exploit, and the processing and transportation methods are different from the conventional ones, which will inevitably lead to high costs and no price advantage. In the era of abundant conventional oil supplies and low oil prices, there is no use value.

But there are two important driving forces for the development of shale oil and gas:

1) Although the cost cannot be compared with the Persian Gulf countries, as long as the oil price reaches a certain level, it can still be profitable and take a slice of the soup;

2) Energy self-sufficiency is an important part of the national strategy.

Metropolis in the desert, Riyadh (Photo: Fedor Selivanov / shutterstock)

However, after the two oil crises, oil prices have been rising for a long time, and the development of shale oil and gas is still on the agenda. Increasing human concern about oil depletion has also brought light to shale oil and gas-related industries. Shale oil and gas technology has been valued and important technological breakthroughs have emerged. The cost reduction has led to the development of shale oil and shale gas. Profitable, the shale oil and gas revolution began.

The beginning of the shale oil and gas revolution is a major progress for mankind in the search for energy, but the reason why it is temporarily focused on is still weighed as the interests of various countries. First Ring (Photo: Peter Aleksandrov / shutterstock)

Shale oil and gas distribution in the United States

The United States is the forerunner of the shale oil and gas revolution and the biggest beneficiary of the shale oil and gas revolution.

Shale in the United States is divided into several main producing areas, concentrated in the Appalachian Mountains, the Gulf of Mexico, the Great Lakes, the Fort Worth Basin and the Rocky Mountains, most of which are in the Craton or Foreland Basin The utilization value is large, the reserves are huge, and the mining conditions are stable.

Main distribution of oil and gas resources in the central and eastern United States (including shale oil and gas) (picture reference: oil map)

Bakken Shale District in North Dakota, Eagle Ford (sometimes also translated as Eagle Beach) Shale District in Texas, and Neobrara in Colorado ( Niobrara) shale area is the main shale oil and gas producing area in the United States.

The huge shale oil and gas producing area is really the savior of Texas Energy (picture from: https://eaglefordshale.com/)

The most important of these is the shale oil and gas producing area that spans Texas. Since 1912, this has been the most important major oil producing area in the United States, but it has declined due to the depletion of conventional oil resources. Unexpectedly, after the shale oil and gas revolution, huge reserves of shale oil were discovered here, bringing about a renaissance in the oil industry. In 2018, the newly proven reserves were 2.3 billion barrels, ranking first in the United States.

Early portable oil rig located in the Permian Basin Museum in Midland, Texas (Photo: Plazak / Wikipedia)

Oil pumping unit in the Permian Basin (Photo: Zorin09 / Wikipedia)

As the world ’s top oil consumer, the United States consumes one-fifth of the world ’s oil, and the largest consumption is not from industry, but cars that consume nearly half of the oil, so oil prices will directly affect the United States People’s livelihood issues, so controlling production and oil prices is also an important means for the US government to win popular support. It is for this reason that the discovery and construction of shale oil and gas producing areas are of great significance to the United States.

After all, it ’s a country that wants to drive to get relief food (Photo: YES Market Media / Shutterstock)

In addition, chemical fuels are the third largest U.S. oil users. In an era when international crude oil prices fluctuated violently and production capacity was declining, the American society was often concerned about the oil crisis caused by the increase in prices of oil-producing countries and the resulting economic crisis. Under the ruling idea of ​​reversing hollowing, the discovery of these new oil fields is enough to reduce the price of such industrial raw materials.

Eagle Ford energy zone is so large that it is clearly visible even on the light map

With the support of these shale oil regions, total US crude oil production was estimated at 4.011 billion barrels in 2018, an increase of 17% over 2017, and crude oil imports decreased by 73 million barrels over 2017, a year-on-year decrease of 3%. In 2019, US crude oil production continued to fluctuate and reached 12.8 million barrels per day by the end of the year (annualized at 4.672 billion barrels). National energy security was greatly guaranteed.

Capacity growth is still very rapid

Today, US shale gas reserves are 342 trillion cubic feet, accounting for 68% of US natural gas reserves. The proved oil reserves have also reached more than 43.8 billion barrels, setting a new record for the proven reserves of US crude oil, seven main pagesRock oil producing regions account for 49% of the total proven reserves of US oil, which is of great significance in the case of the increasing depletion of conventional oil.

the seven major shale oil producing regions in the United States

This may be why Trump boasted in the beginning of 2020 that “the Middle East oil is not needed” Haikou. But this year’s dense black swans, like crows, are destined to let him go.

In 2017, Petroleum artificially celebrated Trump ’s election as president, and Texas is an important swing state, where the two parties are competing (Photo: Steve Bruckmann / Shutterstock)

The shale oil and gas industry rewritten by the epidemic

In March, the new coronavirus was pandemic worldwide, and major world economies have taken measures to isolate and work from home. To date, 187 countries and regions have affected the economy due to the response measures, which has led to oil demand. Significantly reduced .

Automobile fuel consumption is greatly reduced, Los Angeles, California / United States-March 23, 2020 Photo: Hyperlapse Media / Shutterstock)

According to the IEA Oil Market Report, daily demand in April will be 29 million barrels lower than a year ago, and the lowest level since 1995. In the second quarter of 20th, daily demand will be 23.1 million barrels lower than the same period last year. Until December, which gradually recovers, daily demand will also decrease by 2.7 million barrels.

However, the supply of oil did not closely follow the contraction in demand. On March 6, the OPEC + production cut negotiations broke down. Then Saudi Arabia announced an increase in oil production, and Russia was not willing to show weakness. When the leaders of the two countries have always used hard-line leaders to make decisions, they probably do not expect that demand will fall so much.

Talking and laughing is like yesterday (Photo: Kremlin.ru / wikipedia)

The storage of oil also requires higher conditions, which also means an expense. When the oil price is high and the oil depot reserves are not full, this expenditure is nothing, but when the oil price is low, but the oil depot is full, this cost can become the last blow to break the oil price. Recently, such news has been frequently reported. Not only are warehouses in North America, East Asia, and Europe full, but global oil tanker rents have also increased 6 times. Global oil and gas storage has become overwhelmed, and oil has changed from sweet potato to hot potato.

Now the marine tankers are also often filled with oil, I do n’t know how long the remaining sporadic storage can last (Photo: KirShu / Shutterstock)

AnadoluAgency analyzes the financial status of ExxonMobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Halliburton, Schlumberger, Baker Hughes, Shell, BP, Total, Eni, Equinor and Rosneft The total revenue of these oil giants fell by 17% over the same period last year.

In the first quarter of this year, these companies recorded a net loss of US $ 20.6 billion, while total net income for the first quarter of 2019 was US $ 23.4 billion.

Ca n’t fit, ca n’t fit … (Photo: VanderWolf Images / shutterstock)

The cost of shale oil extraction is higher than that of oil. Current estimates of its extraction cost range from US $ 50 a barrel to US $ 30 a barrel, but it is definitely higher than the oil production costs of Saudi Arabia and Russia. If OPEC +, which is dominated by Saudi Arabia and Russia, can limit production capacity and stabilize oil prices at least above US $ 50, the US shale oil industry can be profitable.

Although OPEC + reached a retrenchment-type production cut agreement in mid-April, the global daily oil supply will drop by a record 12 million barrels in May, but oil far exceeding the demand has been produced and the priceIt will take time to recover. The shale oil and gas companies in the United States can no longer support it, and they went bankrupt in five within a month.

Sudden crit at the beginning of the year, which has not been recovered so far (picture from: https://markets.businessinsider.com/)

Baker Hughes reported that the number of U.S. oil and gas rigs fell again by 21 to 318 last week. The total number of oil and gas rigs decreased by 665 compared with the same period last year, a decrease of more than 67 %.

The significant decline in the number of rigs in the past few months has also been reflected in estimates of US oil production. This week, U.S. oil production fell again, down 1.6 million barrels / day from the highest level in history and 100,000 barrels / day from the previous week (average 11.5 million barrels per day for the week ending May 15). This is the seventh consecutive week of decline in US oil production.

The boss and the second fight, and the spectacle of the third being killed seems to be coming.

Endless: Sneville, Georgia / United States-05 / 23 (Photo: Billy F Blume Jr / Shutterstock)

Trump with shale oilThe gas industry will still have great development. It’s just that those who enjoy its dividends at that time are not necessarily the companies that have experienced the shale oil and gas revolution today.

This is not something a subsidy can tweet.

References:

[1] EIA. Natural gas explained Where our natural gas comes from

[2] Zhou Qingfan Yang Guofeng, US shale oil and gas exploration and development status and development prospects, China Petrochemical Research and Development Institute

[3] Dong Yang Li Yifan, analyzed the conditions of shale gas formation, China ’s petroleum and chemical standards and quality

[4] EIA. U.S. Crude Oil and Natural Gas Proved Reserves, Year-end 2018

[5] EIA. This Week in Petroleum2020.01.08

[6] https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/23/low-demand-oil- financial-crisis-us-debt-global-economy

[7] https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/21/oil-prices-fall-below-zero-coronavirus-barrels-crude

[8] https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-april-2020