Introduction: While closing the door to real estate, Hainan is also trying to open the wider imagination of the free trade port. In addition to “bone scraping”, an urgent proposition in front of Hainan Island is how to get rid of dependence on land finance, build a new industrial development model, and gradually complete the conversion of old and new kinetic energy for economic growth.
The title map is from Visual China, this article is fromWeChat public account: Economic Observation Network (ID:eeojjgcw), the original title “to the property of Hainan: free trade port construction,” not to mention real estate “, continued restriction policy overweight”, author: Chen Po
Waited for two years, “Overall Plan for the Construction of Hainan Free Trade Port” (hereinafter referred to as “Overall Plan for Free Trade Port”) Settled.
This document, which relies on the transformation of Hainan’s economic structure, has only two details that are barely linked to the real estate industry: First, it supports the innovation and standardized development of the housing leasing financial business, and supports the development of real estate investment trust funds(REITs); The second is to achieve free and convenient access for personnel.
A TOP5 project sales person in Hainan told the Economic Observer that in the long run, the “Free Trade Port Master Plan” is good for all industries including real estate. In the future, Hainan real estate is more suitable for long-term value cultivation. The traditional high-turnover path of housing companies will not work in Hainan.
As the head of marketing for a local housing company in Hainan, Lin Ze is also more rational in his judgment of real estate. “(Scheme) is not much like real estate. Relationship.”
Taking the opportunity of building a free trade portOver the past two years, Hainan is undergoing a derealization movement with the determination to “broken the wrist”. Restrictions on global purchases and sales of existing homes demonstrate the determination to combat speculation in the real estate market and get rid of land and real estate dependence. Anju-type commercial housing has become one of the “weapons” in Hainan’s real estate shift period.
While closing the door to real estate, Hainan is also trying to open up a wider imagination for the free trade port. The transformation of Hainan is not only a breakthrough in the long-term self-try of land finance and real estate, but also a door to exploration for China’s economic transformation and upgrading.
The pain of limited purchase
I have witnessed the highlight moments of the industry, and have also experienced more than two years of “bitter days.” After immersing in Hainan real estate for more than ten years, Lin Ze has developed a habit. When the New Deal comes out, it is inevitable to ponder the entire document from the perspective of real estate.
On June 1, the long-rumored “Overall Plan for the Construction of Hainan Free Trade Port” was officially released, and he quickly browsed the full article as usual as soon as possible.
“From start to finish, there is almost no clause that can be called a real good for the real estate industry.” Facing this exciting document throughout the island, Lin Ze was particularly calm.
The change will begin on April 22, 2018. On that day, the General Office of the Hainan Provincial Party Committee and the General Office of the Hainan Provincial Government jointly issued the “Notice on Further Stabilizing the Real Estate and Real Estate Market” to implement global purchase restrictions on real estate in Hainan. The path of investors from outside the island entering Qiong was quickly and directly blocked.
Compared with other cities in China, the Hainan real estate market has always been a special presence in the past few decades. The out-of-island demand dominates the deformed customer group structure, leaving the real estate of this tropical coastal island exposed to the spotlight time and time again.
From a more detailed perspective, Hainan’s dependence on purchasing power outside the island has encountered at least three historical evolutions in the past:
Before 2009, in the overall commercial housing market in Hainan, foreign buyers accounted for more than 85%. Among them, more than 95% of the cities and counties outside Haikou come from off-island demand; 60% of Haikou’s sales are contributed by foreigners, and 30%-40% are local purchasing power.
By 2012, Haikou’s customer base structure further evolved into new and old Hainanese accounting for 60% and foreigners accounting for 40%. In other cities and counties, the proportion of local demand for home purchases has gradually increased to 20%-30%.
The accumulation of imported purchasing power outside the island to a certain extent stimulates and drives the local purchasing power, which is the development of the Hainan real estate marketA main line gradually formed in the process, as they bought more and more area, the unit price became higher and higher, local demand also obtained some economic benefits from real estate, and converted into a part of the purchasing power of the property market.
Because Haikou’s education and medical conditions are the best in Hainan, homebuyers who just need a home registration basically focus their attention on the Haikou area. As of 2018, before the promulgation of the “global purchase restriction order”, Haikou’s local home buyers have increased to more than 80%.
Whether it is a model that directly depends on off-island demand or relying on the transformation of off-island economic transmission, the “lethal power” of the “global purchase restriction” has been implemented for two years. The “lethal power” suffered by the Hainan real estate market cannot be underestimated. Reflected in Hainan’s official data.
In 2017, Hainan’s commercial housing sales reached a record high of 271.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of up to 82.1%; but in 2018, this indicator fell sharply by 23.2%; by 2019, Hainan’s commercial housing sales continued to decline by 38.8% ; In the first four months of this year, Hainan commercial housing sales shrank again by 45.1% to 22.491 billion yuan. The year-on-year decline in sales has expanded year by year.
However, the structural evolution of the demand for home purchases has led to a divergence in the impact of global purchase restrictions over the past two years. The 18 cities and counties outside Haikou have the greatest impact.
“After the global purchase restriction, there are few qualified buyers in the new market in other cities and counties, and sales and sales have shrunk to less than 30%.” Lin Ze cited an example. At the peak of the market in 2017, the annual sales area could reach about 800,000 square meters. In 2019, even 100,000 square meters of transactions could not be reached. This figure is equivalent to the volume of a project in the mainland.
Data from the Hainan Provincial Statistics Bureau show that in the first four months of 2020, of the 19 cities and counties, 9 cities and counties had a sales area of less than 10,000 square meters; 8 cities and counties had sales of less than 100 million yuan. Most of them are concentrated in central and western Hainan.
“These real estate bosses around Hainan are now having a hard time.” As a member of the real estate circle, Lin Ze was deeply touched.
By contrast, Haikou City, which occupies two-thirds of the sales area of Hainan Island, in the past two years, due to the liquidation stage of multiple projects, the overall economy is still inertial development, plus the release of this round of local purchasing power has not yet At the end, the local real estate market is still in an upward trend in the short term.
In 2019, Haikou’s annual sales area reached 4.4056 million square meters, up 12% year-on-year; sales were approximately 67.78 billion yuan, up year-on-year