In sports competitions, those players who performed very successfully on the first day are usually not as good as they were on the second day, because we are more concerned about this game, we usually feel that “the player performed well in the first round, he must be very nervous now, Because he wants to maintain his leading position, he will perform poorly,” or “the player performs poorly in the first round, he understands that he has no choice, so there is no pressure, probably the second round will do better.”

However, the real situation is: There are many factors that affect the performance of a player in a certain game. The result will show unpredictable volatility, but the performance will eventually return to the average level.

Regression mean, has the following characteristics:

  • If the deviation from the average is more obvious, the regression phenomenon we expect will be more obvious because of the deviation The more extreme the data, the stronger the effect of luck, and when luck disappears, there will be a strong regression.

  • Although the deviation from the average is more obvious, we expect the stronger the rationality of the regression, but the regression prediction is still There will be uncertainty, because of uncertain luck, I don’t know when it will disappear.

  • Only in a longer period, the rationality and accuracy of regression prediction can be obtained Guarantee, so this will further test our ability to make correct judgments and explanations of regression phenomena.

7. Hindsight

After learning the outcome of an event, people will ignore the impact of the resulting information and overestimate their tendency to correctly predict the probability of something happening. The hindsight bias is common in various decision-making tasks, and does not change because of individual differences in cognitive style, experts and novices, as well as the elaboration of the original answers and the change in the attribute framework when the results are presented.

Every time a hot event breaks out, many articles will come out in response. Various proofs and analyses indicate that it has been expected. After reading the article, people suddenly realize that the logic is so simple, and the signs are so obvious.