On this day, the A-share market went out of the unilateral upward market, banks, brokerages, and real estate stocks “danced”, the market continued to strengthen in the volume, the Shanghai Stock Index fell It broke through the high of 3288 points in the spring of 2019 and jumped over 3200 points to directly stand at 3300 points. The three major A-share indexes all came out of the technical bull market.
The bulls are carnival, and the bears are stepped on. Why did the bull market come suddenly? After surging the news from multiple perspectives, it was found that incremental funds have entered the market, economic expectations have improved, and the weighting of financial stocks and other weights strengthened last week, which brought obvious profit-making effects and ignited market sentiment.
Abundance of liquidity, single-day trading breaks 1.5 trillion yuan for the first time in five years
Zhang Xia, chief strategy analyst of China Merchants Securities, believes that the intraday trend is comprehensive Exceeded expectations, the weighting plate rose in general, but there was no adjustment in the pharmaceuticals and consumption that had a higher increase in the previous period, which meant that the off-site funds accelerated the entry, the on-site funds were actively rotated, and the transactions were extremely active. The downtime reflects the market’s popularity.
On the evening of July 6, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges released the trading data for the day, with the Shanghai market turnover of 724.697 billion yuan and the Shenzhen market turnover of 844.713 billion yuan. The total trading volume of Shanghai and Shenzhen was RMB 1,569.41 billion, which was a significant increase compared to the previous trading day.
According to wind statistics, the total transaction volume has achieved five consecutive rises. It is worth mentioning that this is the first time since May 2015 that the total daily turnover of the two cities exceeded 1.5 trillion yuan.
Behind the new high transaction amount, two types of funds have to be mentioned, one is leveraged funds, and the other is northbound funds.
Wind shows that the balance of margin financing and securities lending between Shanghai and Shenzhen was reported at 1202.868 billion yuan on July 3, marking the first time that the year exceeded the 1.2 trillion yuan mark. Since June, the trend of gradually expanding the balance of the two financings has also become quite obvious.
The agency explained that the fundamental reason why A-shares did not rise for a long time in the past ten years was because of the long-term downward cycle of China’s potential economic growth rate and the long-term downward cycle of the potential economic growth rate Will worsen the market’s expectations for future economic growth, which will lead to the occurrence of “kill valuation” phenomenon. As the most important factor affecting the decline of China’s potential economic growth rate in the past decade, the increase in China’s labor population is expected to end this year’s long-term downward cycle of up to 10 years, and will remain basically flat in the next five years, which means that China’s potential economic growth rate It is also expected to end the long-term downturn. For the stock market, this means that the long cattle that have not been seen in the past decade are expected to open this year.
The profit-making effect is highlighted
According to Zhang Xia’s analysis, on the one hand, the market surge is due to the continuous implementation of recent capital market reform policies, which is reflected in the policy cycle The interpretation of SMIC’s science and technology board listed fundraising scale exceeded expectations and the brokerage industry integration expectations have increased investors’ confidence in making the capital market bigger and stronger. On the other hand, investors’ expectations of economic data in the second quarter and the second half of the year have brought about valuation repairs in the financial and cyclical sectors; in addition, the accelerated entry of overseas funds and resident funds into the market, the preferred brokers and the low valuation sector to build positions are even larger The short-term profit-making effect of the market.
At this point, the market’s upward logic has formed a closed loop, and the entry of incremental funds has driven the market to strengthen, and the economic recovery is expected to add a fire to the rally, making money increasingly obvious. Under the effect, the valuation repair of the weighting plate drove the index to attack, and attracted the influx of new funds.
Minsheng Securities said that since July, with the continuous improvement of domestic and foreign economic data, the market’s pessimistic expectations for the U-shaped recovery of the economy have begun to correct, and interest rates have also entered an upward cycle. To verify the double inflection points of the economy and risk appetite, the dominant logic of the market is changing: from the loosening of trading liquidity to the improvement of trading profitability in general, the industry’s recovery from the mandatory domestic demand of the transaction to the recovery of the trading cycle industry, and the decisive trend of trading from individual stock High valuation to low trading volatility and low valuation.
After the epidemic, the market is not just returning to the original point and filling out the “epidemic pit”. The epidemic has profoundly changed the market in many ways. Among them, the impact on the market style is thatUnder the market, the market to the “low volatility + trend + certainty” industry and company transactions to the extreme value level, the valuation gap and position gap between trending companies and cyclical companies have run to historical extremes. As the economy gradually emerges from the impact of the epidemic, the style springs where A shares are pressed to the limit will also explode with great power. From the trend point of view, all major A-share indexes made major direction choices in early July, breaking through the historically important chip peaks and long-term resistance levels. In the environment of cyclical profit recovery and loose global liquidity, A shares will Accelerate upward movements and usher in a systematic bull market.