This article is from WeChat public account: The Prophet Church (ID: gudaolundao) , the title picture comes from: Visual China

This article is divided into six parts, I hope to inspire everyone:

Meituan ’s ladder, talk about the relationship between Didi and the past pattern of Meituan;

The potential environment of the acquisition, what kind of situation Didi is facing;

Did you get rid of hunger completely, and talk about the impact of the American Mission on hunger?

“Orange is born in Huainan,” Didi said that the profitability of Didi’s system will be stronger;

Those who do not want to live forever, talk about the deep benefits of Meituan’s acquisition of Didi;

Writing at the end, talk about some basic conditions for realizing the acquisition.

01 、 Meituan’s Ladder

Meituan Review -W (HK: 03690) The rise in market value / valuation in the past is due to its ability to sell old and new, and to evolve its business in a stepwise manner, similar to Disney’s business ladder.

(Disney’s Business Ladder)

The so-called “sky ladder” development model, which contains four levels:

  • Growing growth, looking for plans for future growth;


  • Test business model and test commercial feasibility of business concept;


  • Replication has proven to realize growth potential by creating business measures;


  • Get profit, maximize the potential and manage landslide business by releasing cumulative growth



    Meituan finally ran out of three major businesses-“to shop, hotel and travel” (this should be two businesses, group purchase and OTA) , food delivery, new business and other (Mobike, food management system, grocery retail business) -If you draw a picture The ladder diagram is like this.

    (Meituan’s business ladder)

    The local life of Internet companies is still inseparable from the category of “food, clothing, living, and playing.”

    Yi, it is clear that no one can compete with Ali. The richness of online shopping products, the online shopping interaction brought by Taobao Live, and the new retail of Intime Department Store are unmatched by the outside world.

    Food, which is a good thing for Meituan. The strategy of “Food + Platform (Food + Platform) ” can be seen in “Food” The strength of this is reflected in the penetration of merchants (invincible group purchases, takeaway share 65.8%) , and public comment as the right to speak as a catering entrance.

    Live, this is the online hotel reservation. In the past two or three years, the outside world “only knows Han, regardless of Wei and Jin”, I only know where the old Ctrip is going, and the stand-alone single hotel OYO, but I do n’t know Meitu Hotels, in fact, the number of nights in the Meituan Hotel in the first half of 2018 exceeded that of Ctrip.

    Play, divided into life play and travel play, life play mainly occurs in the group purchase to shop business, such as a friend to go to the public to comment on a recent escape to the explosion of a secret room escape shop; travel play is the destination of OTA travel, such as 138 yuan day trip to Huaibei Ski Resort (including snow tickets, ski equipment, insurance, round trip, reflecting the cost-effective, not advertising) span>.

    It can be said that “food, living and playing” has cast the US group (For the specific timeline, please refer to the business ladder diagram above) . But today, Meituan must have a new growth curve, because the bottleneck of high-speed development is approaching, Meituan has eliminated / integrated all its competitors in the group purchase store; the market share in the takeaway field is 65.8%, and 721 monopoly patterns are now available. OTA In terms of hotel room nights more than Ctrip. Several large divisions do the first, and future growth is based on penetration rate / commission rate / ARPU growth, which can make steady money but will not have the explosive power of business growth.

    The most inescapable things for a company are several things: taxes, death, and ceilings. Meituan ’s ceiling needs a new growth curve. What is it? In the new business, I am not optimistic about the baby elephant fresh and shared charging treasure business. At present, I think the most important thing is the online car rental.

    The online car-riding business is about to rise. It’s not the scorching fire. The 70 major cities in the country have gone to the bottom, but they are seeking mergers and acquisitions.

    02, Potential environment for acquisitions

    In 2019, the sharing economy has reached its lowest point, even lower than the lowest point.

    Uber’s dream has awakened. Before the IPO, the expected valuation was adjusted from 120 billion U.S. dollars to 82.4 billion U.S. dollars. Even so, the stock price still fell dead, and the current market value is $ 494.

    WeWork’s dream has also awakened, and the IPO valuation will be reduced from 47 billion U.S. dollars to less than 20 billion U.S. dollars. This makes Sun Zhengyi unable to sit still. “The lower valuation affects the net value of the Vision Fund. Isn’t this hitting my old Sun’s face, ‘Sun Zhengyi Effect (PS: Make a miracle vigorously, you want 50 million knives, I will give you 500 million knives to kill the competitors) ‘can the cows blow? ”So finally WeWork suspended listing.

    The fall of the banner of the sharing economy has a great impact on Didi, according to the media The Information report:

    Some existing shareholders of Didi want to exit and sell their shares at a much lower valuation than the 57 billion U.S. dollars in the last round of financing, citing people familiar with the matter, “a Chinese investor paid $ 40 billion Sold a portion of Didi’s equity at another valuation, another US investor sold Didi’s equity at a $ 43 billion valuation, but did not find a next home. ”

    An era has passed, and the market is expected to flip!

    The business model that was widely expected from the former online car rental is bitter first, then sweet, burn the money first to kill the opponent, and the cash flow will roll until it is replaced by a new species. (Those who think the new Internet economy is burning money) .

    Investors later discovered that Mount Everest and Chogori are expected to stand upside down from reality. The first wave of money burns far more than you think. But they encountered regulatory iron fists or a new round of competitors.

    For Didi, as the benchmark company uber continues to fall, its valuation pressure is huge.

    (uber stock price trend)

    Not only is the external environment facing challenges, but Didi’s own operations are also encountering problems. Of course, the two are not clear.

    Didi’s most profitable business is a ride-hailer. There is no hard overhead of vehicles and personnel, and its profitability is very strong. Before the offline, the daily unit of the downwind car is about 2 million, and it contributed a net profit of 800 million yuan in 2017.

    Yes, the tailwind is off the line. Two tragedies happened last year.The drama caused the ride to go offline. Driver review is a common problem for ride-hailing cars worldwide. (Somali war criminals can go to uber) , which is particularly difficult to handle here because it does not have Other businesses can generate a lot of cash flow to support “self-operation”. The business logic is that you can have a high-quality driver team, but you have to spend more money. Therefore, Didi is very passive in the face of supervision. Recently, the Shanghai Transportation Management Department has included (including Meituan taxis) as a serious dishonest black List.

    The management of Didi drivers is very difficult. The essence of the problem is that although the job is not decent, the driver is psychologically superior to the passengers. The economic foundation determines the superstructure. Passengers who do not have a car (or do not drive a car) have a sense of superiority, so they will indulge a lot in personality. You see, the takeaway rider riding an electric car will not indulge our little white-collar workers in the China World Trade Organization. Why should we be embarrassed?

    Another external challenge:

    • Meituan planted two nails in Shanghai and Nanjing to accumulate energy;


    • Cao Cao special car for the new energy network invested by Geely Automobile;



    • Avenger Alliance carried on the map of Gaode of Alibaba (aggregation taxi) < / span>, including special cars from China, Shouqi Auto, Sunshine, AA, etc.

      Didi is really too difficult, and I do n’t see any turning point in the short to medium term. So what is the reason for the US group to shoot, can its strength allow it?


      03, are you hungry?

      Meituan defeated the hungry in the local life field, Trustdata data:

      • Q3 2018 Meituan and Hungry? (including Hungry Star Selection) ‘s shares are 60.1% and 37%, respectively;


      • 2019 Q3 Meituan and Hungry? (including Hungry? Star Selection) ‘s shares are 65.8% and 32.2%, respectively.



        (Comparison of Meituan and Hungry Market Share)

        Even so, if Hungry Ali’s father is willing to continue to burn money, it will still cast a shadow on the profitability of Meituan.

        To completely eliminate uncertainty, rely on the membership system (Member users’ average purchases are three times higher than non-member users) And full-minus gameplay adjustment, is definitely effective, but the short-term effect will not be too great. Because these things on the bright side can be copied at the nanometer level. The same operation method, no one is more noble than others, and the effect will not make much difference. It ’s as if you are hungry? The share is 4.8% lower, but Ali ’s overall local living services revenue still increased by 36% in the third quarter, and the industry is still rising.

        (also a word horse)

        (It is also a word horse, who is more noble than others?)

        But it’s not the same when there is a car-hailing service. At that time, the network effect of Meituan’s local life service will be great. Some investors must say, “You are here again, will you only use the word ‘network effect’, can you be more grounded and talk about it in a more general way?”

        Okay, let’s talk a little more. With the Meituan APP after the online booking, its position in the user’s mind is second only to the WeChat APP. WeChat uses it every day, right? You will also use Meitu:

        High-frequency “Take a taxi to the company in the morning, take out at noon, check food at night, finish watching movies, open a room to rest after watching a movie ~”; For other life services in Nagao, cut your head and find a utility You can fix the locks here. At that time, Meituan was the only super app and enjoyed the VIP treatment of mobile desktops, as shown below.

        One day, is it really hungry?

        04, “Orange Health Huainan is Orange”

        The same orange tree grows in different places and produces different fruits. Meituan can greatly increase Didi’s profitability.

        You know, The user attributes of the local life business are the same, which means that traffic can be reused. I said above a typical day of a friend of mine, “Taxi to work in the morning, take-out at noon, check food at night, watch movies after eating, open a room after watching movies ~”

        If each service is spread across different companies, everyone needs to find their own traffic. And without integrating services, even if you find traffic, the churn rate will be high, and user loyalty is impossible to talk about. This thing is not just a simple aggregation. When you use more services, more data is generated. Algorithmic recommendations based on accurate portraits will make your life more convenient.

        It is for this reason that you can see that global uber, Southeast Asia Grab, are multi-format integrated local life services such as online car rental, takeaway, etc. The specific combination varies from place to place.

        (uber official website)

        Second, the biggest competitors are gone, and profitability naturally rises.

        • Didi: “Who is my biggest opponent? Stand up.”


        • Meituan: “I’ve seen Big Brother Didi below, Didi makes life better”.

          The reason why Meituan is listed as Didi’s biggest competitor is because of capital considerations . Last year Cao Cao’s special car was also very fierce, but this year Cao Cao’s special car investor Fang Gili’s car industry is not good, even if you want to engage in action, the strength is not allowed. There is no need to say more about the other defeated cars in Shenzhou. Lao Lu’s energy is devoted to Ruixing Coffee. The special car may want to do things a little later.

          If Meituan acquires Didi, the benefits in terms of business structure are obvious, and a new growth curve has been found, but this is only the benefit on the bright side.

          05. Those who do not seek forever

          Chen Renran’s “Suggestions on the Second Move of the Capital to Establish a Fan” has a sentence, “Those who do not seek for all worlds are not enough for a moment. Those who do not seek the overall situation are not enough for a while.” This means that you must look at the issue in a long-term perspective and cannot consider it for long-term interests. You must not be able to make short-term plans. You must also look at the issue comprehensively.

          • The acquisition of Didi can increase a growth curve for Meituan;


          • It can also strengthen the platform’s capabilities to strengthen its stores, OTC and takeaway business;


          • It is also possible to strategically position a driverless vehicle so that the foundation of your business, (Manual Performance) , will not be subverted.

            In the future, unmanned driving will definitely replace ride-hailing, Google’s Waymo, and Musk’s Tesla. Traditional car manufacturers and ride-hailing are a big threat. Fortunately, companies like Google are hard to come in and let foreign companies control the city. Obviously, this is not possible with Pentium, driverless vehicles. If China has a driverless company, Didi is possible.

            And there is no oneDriving technology, Meituan is likely to become a failed company.

            You know, the rider is an important part of the process of fulfilling the contract of Meituan Takeaway. It can be said that it is a fixed cost. span>. If the era of driverlessness comes, Meituan’s compliance cost will inevitably be much higher than driverless, which will not have to incur labor costs.

            Meituan needs to break its own balance with Didi to make its ecology more powerful. Applying a recent popular saying, Build a dissipative structure to counter entropy increase.

            06, write at the end

            Meituan does not have much money on the account, but this is not an obstacle. It can be exchanged for shares or issued as in the previous merger review. The current market value of Meituan is US $ 76.4 billion, and Didi is estimated to be worth US $ 40 billion.

            When talking with outsiders, he thinks that the biggest obstacle may be Ali in the capital side. After all, is it that it is too bad for the US Mission to be hungry? I deliberately checked it, Ali’s right to speak in Didi is not great, and currently holds 5% of Didi’s shares (September 2017 4.198 billion yuan Sold to SoftBank) .

            Finally, I haven’t got any inside information in this article. Based on the observations of various Internet new economy companies, I hope to inspire everyone.

            This article is from WeChat public account: The Prophet Church (ID: gudaolundao)