This article is from WeChat public account: when interest (ID: SocialTouchST) , author: Condi, week in security, the original title:” 2010⇆2020: vertex growth, brand “Beginning”, picture from: Visual China

In 2020, in this year where millennials represented by Yi Xi Qianxi will have their 20th birthday, a new round of Kangbo cycles is being born.

Despite allegiance to the past, the new economic era has come as promised. Hot words such as “dividend”, “recession”, “breaking the situation”, “reconstruction” … will soon be filled in the summary of the media at the end of the year, bearing in fact more negative emotions and panic about the recession.

It is interesting to look back at the end of each stage of human history, almost advancing through hardships, looking forward to the past, and singing the world of the future; but when facing the real crisis, they often Filled with incredible confidence.

“There are two situations where you can make a fortune: one is the prosperity of the country and the other is the crisis of troubled times.” The handsome actor Reit Butler said in Gone with the Wind.

In the sad background, there are huge opportunities for the new cycle, and only a few people who are very confident but not afraid of difficulties are willing to believe.

Here are the secrets of the future.

2010⇆2020, the prosperous era of performance marketing

2008 and 2009 are a magical year.

In 2008, the first year of video marketing. In this year, video website advertising revenue exceeded 10 million. From the website click ranking and revenue in 2009, Youku and Tudou are duopoly. Hulu’s annual advertising revenue reached 100 million US dollars, accounting for 33% of the US video advertising market. Stimulated by Hulu’s successful model, Chinese video websites turned their bows in 2009 and switched to Hulu or UGC + Hulu mode. Youku is actively testing the water to produce short web dramas, and has launched “Hip Hop 4” and “Born Sports Frenzy” tailored for advertisers.

In 2008, Tencent started to hold the Tencent Smart Summit. With the theme of efficient marketing solutions, proposed MIND—a measurable effect, an interactive experience, precise navigation, and differentiated positioning. On November 20, 2010, Tencent WeChat officially set up a project; in 2015, the first circle of friends advertising was launched, and vivo, Coca-Cola and BMW became the first “crab eaters” and also became “most unlike Party A “Party A”, in the author’s interview at that time, whether it is the brand owner or the creative solution, has been screened by the WeChat platform side, and the layers of negation have been repeated.

On April 20, 2009, Baidu launched the search promotion professional version, which is the Phoenix Nest system. Technology + effect has become one of the clearest system standards for effect marketing in the future.

In 2009, at the grand rally of the 10th anniversary of Alibaba, the author was impressed, in addition to the first punk look of Jack Ma in the stadium of 100,000 people, and the training salon that was completely inaccessible in the predecessor of Taobao University Crowds. In 2013, Ma Yun stepped down as CEO of Alibaba and expressed his hope to be the first president of Taobao University. The e-commerce iconic system, Ali Mom, went online in 2007 and officially announced on December 21, 2013 that the “Ali Mom” ​​brand has shifted from serving Taobao merchants to advertising that is open to all advertisers across the entire network. Trading platform.

“Integration of product and effect”, “Thousands of people and thousands of faces” … Behind many words, is the solution of Internet technology to traditional advertising. Fast-growing advertising investmentThe technology, coupled with the rapid expansion of the Internet consumer population, has made the transition from traditional advertising to modern marketing. The wasted “80% advertising” seems to find the source and solution. Every dollar invested is said to find a place to land. .

(The search for “ROI” has been increasing year by year and doubled in ten years.)

The author has gone through this era completely, and has witnessed time and time again behind the effect of advertising. It is the era of Internet traffic platforms represented by BAT to improve the effectiveness of advertising by means of technology. At the same time, is the Chinese Internet demographic dividend. Huge wave.

This popularity has peaked in the past three years: Some newly born consumer influencers have only used the “flow” and “platform” sophisticated applications, It took 3-4 years to complete the sales growth and company value growth of traditional brands, which can take 5-10 years or even longer. With the help of “traffic” and “fission”, Luckin (Ruixing Coffee) was established in November 2017, and the accumulated revenue in the first three quarters of 2019 reached 2.84 billion RMB is expected to reach RMB 5 billion for the whole year, and it will be listed in only 18 months. In the make-up market, the perfect diary was only 3 years old. It used the resources of Xiaohongshu, Tmall, and Douyin to rise rapidly, becoming the first The top domestic brands on the Tmall makeup list, the market generally expects its sales in 2019 to exceed 3 billion yuan.

The landing of these final results represents a victory in Chinese-style effect marketing, and will reach a peak in 2019. This peak refers to two points:

One is a brand known to understand “flow” and “growth”, and has achieved phased results in the capital market;

AnotherIt is about the success of “effect marketing”. Through the ten-year communication power and market budget of the large Internet platform represented by BAT, it has already obtained the recognition of effect marketing from most Chinese marketers. “Integration of quality and effect” has become an “old word”.

This is the answer to future success, and is it the direction of future marketing?

Is it really “one product and effect”?

2019 abnormal phenomenon

At the end of 2019, the marketing industry is not quite flat. Compared with the past few years, the number of screen marketing cases has declined sharply. Adidas “3 billion “Buy for marketing lessons” unexpectedly became a 10W + explosion, in the article, Simon Peel, Adidas Global Media Director (Simon Peel) , Made a deep and firm reflection on Adidas’ effect-oriented marketing model:

“In the past few years, Adi has overinvested in digital and performance (digital & performance) channels, thus sacrificing brand building.”

Li Yi, the author and self-media of the article, mentioned that Simon Peel also provided an extremely accurate figure in the original English text: before that, 77% of Adidas’ budget was in effect and 23% was in the brand. More interestingly, the article mentioned that Adi has been referring to an attribution model called “last click” for the past few years. (LastClick attribution) . This model takes “pragmatism” to the extreme-As the name implies, no matter how many other brand information consumers have seen before, this model will attribute all the credit for the conversion to the last click before the most purchase.

In fact, users generally need to make more than 20 ad clicks to make a purchase. Various display methods include search, social, email, alien ads or TV ads.

Later, Adidas introduced a new econometric model to re-statize the effectiveness of advertising costs. They found that “Adidas previously believed that only performance advertising can promote e-commerce sales, but in fact, brand activities have promoted wholesale and retail And e-commerce sales of 65%, while performance advertising will also drive wholesale and retail. ”

Even a mature global brand with a complete marketing system and a budget of tens of billions, a brand history of seventy years, does n’t pay much attention to “brand advertising” and ignores basic marketing common sense; you can imagine how many brands With the pressure of “growth”, the marketing budget has been tilted too much towards performance advertising, and brand budget investment has been abandoned.

There are several other phenomena that you can follow:

In mid-November, Nike announced that it would “break up” with Amazon, which means that in the future, users will not be able to purchase Nike official products directly in Amazon’s channels. It is said that most successful DTC brands in the United States will not sell on Amazon.

In the early years, Alibaba once stated that the Ali system is an ecology, and in this ecology, great brands can be bred. But it is embarrassing that there are only a handful of businesses that have transformed from Taobao C store to head Tmall store, and most of the early Tao brands have fallen.

A 100,000+ article in the marketing industry in 2019, “A zombie stage play directed by a new media giant, is a real restoration of the scene, the fuse: a video that has become popular overnight, but our traffic is 0!” This shows the “painful amount” of the current painful reality in the digital marketing industry. Although the case is extreme, it also exposes the loopholes and exaggerated facts of performance marketing.

According to media reports, during the recent Double Eleven, many companies’ e-commerce departments invested a record high in participating in the platform ’s Double Eleven event, and the effect was transformed into a record low. A kitchen appliance company invested nearly 500,000 in marketing expenses during the Double Eleven, and the flow on the day of the event was less than 5,000. During the event, the total store sales were nearly 20,000 yuan.

QuestMobile China Mobile Internet 2019 Half and Half Released in July 2019The annual report shows that there was a net decrease of 2 million mobile Internet users in the second quarter of 2019, and China Mobile Internet monthly active users reached a peak of 1.14 billion. At the same time, the growth rate of the average user’s online time is also slowing down.

The economic downturn, the demographic dividend peaking, the second half of the Internet, consumption upgrades, product-efficiency integration, growth of hackers, private domain traffic … behind each word, it indicates the apex and transformation.

Growth, just growth

What is effect and what is brand?

The founder and CEO of Shiqu Zhang Rui took Luckin as a simple example: Luckin itself is a “pond”. The purchasing power through various channels is like water flowing from various channels, and the brand is building this. The “dam” of a pond; when you stop diversion, that is, stop spending money to buy water from various channels, the amount of water that can remain in your pond depends on the height of your dam.

This is the relationship between brand investment and effect investment.

Growth is dependent on channel dividends, which are not sustainable and cannot build the brand’s core competitiveness. If the company puts the energy of brand growth on the channel dividend completely and does not build the dyke, then when the channel dividend disappears, the brand’s dead time has come.

And this dyke implies the power of all brands: product power, charm, consumer relations …

Brand is the overall structure of a company. Brand values ​​are the foundation of an enterprise’s “Who Am I”. The rest is how to distribute charm to attract people who want to attract. This is also the basis of the profound relationship between traditional agency companies and brands: a media company knows its consumers well, but it does not understand consumers on competing media. Companies know their consumers wellHowever, it is difficult for enterprises to understand all the changes and trends in the overall market competition. Therefore, insight into the entire market has always been an indispensable value for Agency as a third party neutral role.

Any single (or composite) channel cannot build a complete ecosystem. Only the sum of all the scenarios in which consumers are located Call it ecology. It is not difficult to find that whether it is the ecology called by Ali or Baidu Tencent, for the overall brand marketing, it is only a “pseudo-ecology”, and it is only a segmented ecology under specific scenarios.

Why can’t the growth mindset build a true brand?

If the brand value is split, it can be divided into three dimensions: popularity, reputation, and loyalty. The popularity represents the exposure of sound, the reputation represents positive association and trust, and loyalty can be reflected in repurchase and secondary recommendation.

In general, growth can only solve the problem of popularity, that is, let more users know and experience your product, but it is difficult to solve the problem of reputation and loyalty. Therefore, growth only by growth A brand is an unsound brand, so it is always called “brand” in the industry.

The difference between “brand” and “brand” can be seen from a small phenomenon: “label” is difficult to escape from channel traffic, and the success of “label” is essentially channel Success, life and death are also in the hands of the channel platform; “brands” have the ability to cross channels, and users will follow the “brands” to initiate channel migration.

Building brand value is not an easy task, and a sense of speed is addictive. When seizing the channel traffic bonus, companies often can usher in high-speed growth for a short period of time. When accustomed to high-speed growth, marketers will naturally look for another channel bonus and refuse to build a long-term brand. value.

The result of this is that once a new channel dividend cannot be found, the brand will fall into a huge risk. The net red brand will rise and fall in a short period of time. The reason is that no company can Grab the next wave of channel traffic dividends forever.

Inertia dependence on growth will give birth to the “poor people’s thinking” in marketing. Companies continue to spend a lot of energy on chasing various hot dividends, but they forget to build their core competitiveness on their brands. Just like Eskimos through bloodLike a wolf catching a blade, the more the wolf is thirsty for blood, the more it licks the blood clots on the blade, but eventually causes itself to lose too much blood and die.

But for brands, blindly pursuing ROI for channel launch cannot build a true brand competitiveness. The reason is, as mentioned earlier, no company can maintain high ROI forever, and channel dividends are increasingly Once discovered, the dividend no longer exists.

That is to say, you ca n’t make a brand just by smashing performance ads. We can find an extreme example is that Apple has never played “performance ads”, but it does not prevent it from becoming a high-profile brand.

The advertising channel platforms such as BAT have a large amount of public opinion. They are constantly advocating ROI as the core marketing methodology, which has led the marketing industry to constantly deform the pursuit of conversion effects, but the motivation of media platforms to promote “ROI only” is only to Better selling their advertising products may mislead a large number of Chinese brands.

Former Pepsi Cola & Master Kong of China Ziqiang (Richard Lee) said: When Chinese brands rise, they often ignore the shaping of brand power Without patience, energy, or courage to shape your brand, it is difficult to produce a company with a long history.

“I talked with the heads of many brands. They spend billions each year to make a lot of titles and implant these programs. I said why do n’t you build your own brand IP? They say this in case What if it does n’t work out? “

The opportunity for Chinese growth brands

Undoubtedly, in the future, China will certainly have consumer giants with global market influence such as P & G, L’Oreal, and Starbucks. The Chinese marketing law always rewards the first “crab eaters.”

In the article “Please Brand in Place-Rewriting of Chinese Consumer Industry Script”, Ekai Capital predicts that the new generation of consumer goods and consumer service companies will no longer be just a platform for brand integration and convergence, nor will it be just The product and service distribution and marketing platform is a user platform that can directly communicate and talk with consumers, and has similar attributes to Internet platforms such as Meituan and Didi. Therefore, compared with traditional consumer giants, the new generation of consumer goods and consumer services companies have stronger user companionship and cross-border expansion potential. I saw that they were able to pinpoint the location of the brand and the point of “charm”; after so many years passed, even though there were Internet research companies, social media and big data analysis companies, but the insights on the brand were No more technical upgrades:

The marketing system includes four links: insight, creativity, media, and operations; now, creativity has been supported by a technology system such as Adobe; the media is occupied by large advertising platforms and forms a complete system of effect marketing; operations are born A large number of SAAS companies and technical solutions; only insights, and stay at the simplest technical application level.

It’s like the other three links have entered the 2.0 era of Internet technology, and the insight is still in the 1.0 era.

In more detail, you can imagine a scenario: today you are asked to write a more complicated research report or an article, but tell you that you cannot use the search engine online in this process, you will find Your productivity will be greatly compromised. Why is that? Because today’s information search and big data have become an extension of each of us’s thinking. We cannot do without such tool support. In the face of more complex marketing issues, we do not have a professional tool that is based on the needs of professional scenarios and is deeply integrated with the marketing business. This has actually become a big constraint on the efficiency of brand insights.

The ideal state is: when the experts in the past made marketing ideas and decisions, they started from intuition, produced a hypothesis, and then demonstrated the hypothesis. Today, when we do have AI and big data, we can very simply start with the performance of the data, and then find interesting insights, then do further analysis, and finally form a continuously iterative, data-driven, more accurate strategy And creative.

This is the opportunity of the future.

We believe that with the accumulation and optimization of data, the data insight engine will become an important auxiliary tool for marketers. Just as we use the computing power of search engines to retrieve information on the Internet today, mining insight also requires a set of insight engines. system. Capture and analyze all data related to brands and marketing and public data every day, build a set of marketing knowledge maps, and form a targeted analysis framework for each vertical industry and vertical marketing scenario, for strategy, creativity, media, Propagate AI empowerment.

Take a cosmetic case as an example, the data insight engine can discover the consumer brand attention of the beauty industry every day, find fast-growing competitors, compare brands and competitors in multiple dimensions; What changes are happening in the field of insight, these changes