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Introduction: Buy a future?

This article is divided into six parts, I hope to inspire everyone:

Meituan ’s ladder, talk about the relationship between Didi and the past pattern of Meituan;

The potential environment of the acquisition, what kind of situation Didi is facing;

Did you get rid of hunger completely, and talk about the impact of the American Mission on hunger?

“Orange is born in Huainan,” Didi said that the profitability of Didi’s system will be stronger;

Those who do not want to live forever, talk about the deep benefits of Meituan’s acquisition of Didi;

Writing at the end, talk about some basic conditions for realizing the acquisition.

01 、 Meituan ’s ladder

Meituan Review-W (HK: 03690) The rise in the market value / valuation in the past lies in its ability to sell new and new businesses and evolve its business in a gradual manner, similar to Disney’s business ladder.

(Disney’s Business Ladder)

The so-called “sky ladder” development model, which contains four levels:

• Planning for growth, looking for plans for future growth;

• Test the business model and test the commercial feasibility of the business idea;

• Replication has proven to realize growth potential by creating business measures;

• Get profit, maximize the potential and manage the landslide business by releasing cumulative growth.
  

  Meituan finally ran out of three major businesses-“shopping, hotel and tourism” (this should be two businesses, group buying and OTA), food delivery, new business and other (Mobike, restaurant management system , Grocery retail business)-If you draw a ladder diagram, this is how it looks.

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  (Meituan’s business ladder)

  The local life of Internet companies is still inseparable from the category of “food, clothing, living, and playing.”

  Yi, it is clear that no one can compete with Ali. The richness of online shopping products, the online shopping interaction brought by Taobao Live, and the new retail of Intime Department Store are unmatched by the outside world.

  Food, which is a good thing for Meituan. The strategy of “Food + Platform” shows the power of “Food”, which is reflected in the penetration of merchants (invincible for group purchase and 65.8% of take-out share) ), And public comment as the right to speak at the entrance to the restaurant.

  Live, this is the online hotel reservation. In the past two or three years, the outside world “only knows Han, regardless of Wei and Jin”, I only know where the old Ctrip is going, and the stand-alone single hotel OYO, but I do n’t know Meitu Hotels, in fact, the number of nights in the Meituan Hotel in the first half of 2018 exceeded that of Ctrip.

  Play, divided into life play and travel play, life play mainly occurs in the group purchase to shop business, such as a friend to go to the public to comment on a recent escape to the explosion of a secret room escape shop; travel play is OTA destination travel, such as 138 yuan Huaibei ski resort one-day group tour (including snow tickets, ski gear, insurance, round trip, reflecting the cost-effective, not advertising).

  It can be said that “food, living and playing” forged the US group (for the specific timeline, refer to the business ladder diagram above). But today, Meituan must have a new growth curve, because the bottleneck of high-speed development is approaching, Meituan has eliminated / integrated all its competitors in the group purchase store; the market share in the takeaway field is 65.8%, and 721 monopoly patterns are now available. OTA In terms of hotel room nights more than Ctrip. Several large divisions do the first, and future growth is based on penetration rate / commission rate / ARPU growth, which can make steady money but will not have the explosive power of business growth.

  A few things a company cannot escape are: taxes, death, and ceiling. What is the ceiling of the Meituan Group, which has to support the new growth curve? In the new business, I am not optimistic about the baby elephant fresh and shared charging treasure business. At present, I think the most important thing is the online car rental.

  (uber stock price trend)

  Not only is the external environment facing challenges, but Didi’s own operations are also encountering problems. Of course, the two are not clear.

  Didi’s most profitable business is a ride-hailing vehicle. There is no hard overhead of vehicles and personnel, and its profitability is very strong. Before going offline, the daily order volume of the downwind car is about 2 million, which contributed a net profit of 800 million yuan in 2017.

  Yes, the tailwind is offline. Two tragedies happened last year that caused the tailwind to go offline. Driver auditing is a common problem for online ride-hailing (Somali war criminals can open uber). Didi is particularly difficult here because it has no other business that can generate a lot of cash flow to support “self-operation”. The business logic is that you can ask High quality driver team, but you have to spend more money. Therefore, Didi is very passive in the face of supervision. Recently, the Shanghai Transportation Management Department has added Didi Travel (including the US group taxi) to the blacklist of serious mistrust.

  The management of Didi drivers is very difficult. The essence of the problem is that although the job is not decent, the driver is psychologically superior to the passengers. The economic foundation determines the superstructure. Passengers who do not have a car (or do not drive a car) have a sense of superiority, so their personality will be indulged a lot. You see, the takeaway rider riding an electric car will not indulge our little white-collar workers in the China World Trade Organization. Why should we be embarrassed?

  Another external challenge:

  • Meituan planted two nails in Shanghai and Nanjing to accumulate energy;

  • The Cao Cao special car for the new energy network invested by Geely Automobile;

  • The “Avengers Alliance” (aggregation taxi) carried by Gaode maps under Ali’s map includes special cars from China, Shouqi Auto, Sunshine, AA, etc.
    

    Didi is really too difficult, and I do n’t see any turning point in the short to medium term. So what is the reason for the US group to shoot, can its strength allow it?

    03. Are you hungry?

    Meituan defeated the hungry in the local life field, Trustdata data:

    • The share of Meituan and Hungry (including Hungry Stars) in Q3 2018 are 60.1% and 37%, respectively;

    • The shares of Meituan and Hungry (including Hungry Stars) in Q3 2019 are 65.8% and 32.2%, respectively.
      ight = “150”>

      (The same is a word horse, who is more noble than others?)

      But it’s not the same when there is a car-hailing service. At that time, the network effect of Meituan’s local life service will be great. Some investors must say, “You are here again, will you only use the word ‘network effect’, can you be more grounded and talk about it in a more general way?”

      Okay, let’s talk a little more. With the Meituan APP after the online car booking, I am afraid it is second only to the WeChat APP. WeChat needs to use it every day, right? You will also use Meitu:

      High-frequency “Take a taxi to the company in the morning, take out at noon, check food at night, finish watching movies, open a room to rest after watching a movie ~”; For other life services in Nagao, cut your head and find a utility You can fix the locks here. At that time, Meituan was the only super app and enjoyed the VIP treatment of mobile desktops, as shown below.

      

      One day, is it really hungry?

      04, “Orange raw Huainan is orange”

      The same orange tree grows in different places and produces different fruits. Meituan can greatly increase Didi’s profitability.

      You know, the user attributes of the local life business are the same, which means that traffic can be reused. What I said above is a typical day for a friend of mine, “Take a taxi to work in the morning, take out at noon, check food at night, finish watching a movie, open a room after watching a movie ~”

      If each service is spread across different companies, everyone needs to find their own traffic. And without integrating services, even if you find traffic, the churn rate will be high, and user loyalty is impossible to talk about. This thing is not just a simple aggregation. When you use more services, more data is generated. Algorithmic recommendations based on accurate portraits will make your life more convenient.

      It is for this reason that you can see that global uber, Southeast Asia Grab, are multi-format integrated local life services such as online car rental, takeaway, etc. The specific combination varies from place to place.

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      (Uber official website)

      Second, the biggest competitors are gone, and profitability naturally rises.

      • Didi: “Who is my biggest opponent? Stand up.”

      • Meituan: “I’ve seen Big Brother Didi below, Didi makes life better”.
        

        The reason why Meituan is listed as Didi’s biggest competitor is because of capital considerations. Last year Cao Cao’s special car was also very fierce, but this year Cao Cao’s special car investor Fang Gili’s car industry is not good, even if you want to engage in action, the strength is not allowed. There is no need to say more about the other defeated cars in Shenzhou. Lao Lu’s energy is devoted to Ruixing Coffee. The special car may want to do things a little later.

        If Meituan acquires Didi, the benefits of its business structure will be obvious and a new growth curve will be found, but this is only the benefit on the bright side.

        05. Those who do not seek forever

        Chen Renran’s “Suggestions on the Second Move of the Capital to Establish a Fan” has a sentence, “Those who do not seek for all worlds are not enough for a moment. Those who do not seek the overall situation are not enough for a while.” This means that you must look at the issue in a long-term perspective and cannot consider it for long-term interests. You must not be able to make short-term plans. You must also look at the issue comprehensively.

        • The acquisition of Didi can add a growth curve to Meituan;

        • In addition, it can strengthen the platform’s capabilities and strengthen the store, OTC and takeaway business;

        • It is also possible to strategically position a driverless vehicle so that the foundation of your business (human performance) is not subverted.
          

          In the future, unmanned driving will definitely replace ride-hailing, Google’s Waymo, and Musk’s Tesla. Traditional car manufacturers and ride-hailing are a big threat. Fortunately, companies like Google are hard to come in and let foreign companies control the city. Obviously, this is not possible with Pentium, driverless vehicles. If China has a driverless company, Didi is possible.

          Without driverless technology, Meituan is very likely to become a failed company.

          You know, the rider is an important part of the process of fulfilling the contract by Meituan Takeaway. It can be said that it is a fixed cost (labor costs are still rising). If the era of driverlessness comes, Meituan’s compliance cost will inevitably be much higher than driverless, which will not have to incur labor costs.

          Meituan needs to break its balance with Didi to make its ecology more powerful. Applying a popular saying recently, a dissipative structure is established to counter the increase of entropy.

          06, written at the end

          Meituan does not have much money on the account, but this is not an obstacle.The same combination of reviews can be exchanged or issued. The current market value of Meituan is US $ 76.4 billion, and Didi is expected to be worth US $ 40 billion (uber is US $ 50 billion).

          When talking with outsiders, he thinks that the biggest obstacle may be Ali in the capital side. After all, is it that it is too bad for the US Mission to be hungry? I deliberately checked it, Ali’s right to speak in Didi is not large, and currently holds 5% of Didi’s shares (September 2017 was 4.198 billion yuan sold to Softbank).

          Finally, I haven’t got any inside information in this article. Based on the observations of various Internet new economy companies, I hope to inspire everyone.