The good news continues. Have Weilai, Ideal and Xiaopeng Motors really landed?

Editor’s note: This article is from the WeChat public account “Intelligent Relativity” (ID: aixdlun), author : White grass.

In recent months, the new force for car building can be described as Good news again and again.

On July 30, Ideal Car was listed on NASDAQ; on the evening of August 27, Xiaopeng Motors officially landed on the New York Stock Exchange. Following the 2018 IPO of Weilai Automobile, there are finally two new car-building forces to publicly offer shares.

Since the Q2 quarter, Weilai and Ideal have achieved positive gross profit margins and began to have certain profitability. At the beginning of October, a number of new self-manufacturing forces posted orders. Weilai took the lead in selling over 10,000 in the third quarter. Zero running, which was established less than 4 years ago, also sold over 1,000 a month for the first time in September.

On October 13, the Shanghai Securities Regulatory Bureau disclosed that Weimar Motors plans to go public. On October 15, JPMorgan Chase’s rating report adjusted Weilai Automobile (NIO.US) from “neutral” to “overweight”, which directly contributed to Weilai’s growth against the trend in the general decline of US stocks, and the highest intraday stock price reached US$29.23 per share.

So it seemsthat the new forces of car-making seem to have entered a “harvest period.”

However, from the perspective of industry competition, the most important thing for a bumper harvest is not how much attention the capital market has, but whether it hasContinuous profitability. The most critical factor affecting sustained profitability is whether it has long-term stable sales.

If sales cannot increase steadily, the profitability currently seen is only a flash in the pan, and a bumper harvest is just an unattainable dream for the new forces, or a mere idea, not a dream.

Sales are rising very fast, but they are not comparable

In September, eight new car-making forces successively disclosed sales data. From the data point of view of “Intelligent Relativity”, the sales of each company have broken through the new monthly high and increased, and both have improved in different degrees compared with the previous month.

(Official release of data source, not complete statistics)

As can be seen from the above table, the sales of new forces in September were quite good. The two top brands Weilai and Xiaopeng ran 133.2% and 145.0% year-on-year growth respectively. The most exciting thing is that in only 9 months, even if the impact of the epidemic is taken into account, the sales of Weilai, Ideal, and Xiaopeng have exceeded 10,000, and the total sales are expected to rise again. Weimar’s sales are also close to 10,000. Last year, Xiaopeng Motors sold only 16,000 a year.

But if you want to make a detailed comparison, the new energy vehicle market is not the exclusive stage for the new forces, and it is definitely not them who play the leading role on the stage.

(Official release of data source)

In the top 20 sales of pure electric vehicles in September this year, only Weilai, Xiaopeng, Weimar and Hezhong are on the list, and they are relatively behind. Among them, Nezha is a brand model of Hezhong Automobile, ideal ONE Because non-pure electric vehicles missed the list.

As can be seen from the above list, if new forces want to challenge Tesla head-on, they have to pass the traditional car company first. The sales of new energy vehicles of BYD, SAIC, BAIC, Great Wall and other auto companies are significantly ahead of the new forces. For example, the total monthly sales of the four BYD models on the list reached 9,291, which is the sum of the quarterly sales of all new forces except Weilai. You must know that the current main sales model of traditional car companies is still fuel vehicles. New energy car products can only be regarded as a “sideline business”. Just like Tian Ji’s horse racing, traditional car companies can easily defeat the new forces with their “inferior horses”. “First-class horse”, the gap between the two sidesLaunched, stimulated by new cars, Weilai may usher in a wave of growth. However, the predecessor of Weilai’s first sedan, EE7, was unveiled as early as 2019. It will not be released until 2020 NIO Day on January 9 next year. The official listing will have to wait until 2022.

The distant water is difficult to quench the near thirst. The annual sales target set by Li Bin of 100,000 will be difficult to achieve this year, and a short-term “buffer harvest” is basically impossible.

Similarly, to achieve the ideal of turning positive in profitability, currently only relying on the ideal ONE product to dominate the world, the imagination for sales is limited to a very small range. In addition, the four new models under planning are still in the PPT , Program extension technology has been repeatedly questioned, and Li Xiangdu was forced to show up Weibo personally end the debate, ideal distance The “harvest season” also has a long torment.

What else should the new forces do if they want a bumper harvest?

After a round of new forces scouring the sand, the number has been reduced from more than 200 at the beginning to about 10 at present, and there may only be 3 in the future. For them who are still at the table, the core element is How to become a frequent customer on the sales list, and a frequent customer at the top.

There is not much know-how, just how to turn the wonderful plans and promises in the PPT for the era of smart cars into reality.

NIO and Ideal have been listed, and Xiaopeng and Weimar are also in the process of impacting the IPO. The new forces can be recognized by the capital market and can become the focus of the industry. A large part of the reason is that they are in the brand at the beginning of their creation. Planning, product creation, marketing methods, ecological construction and other aspects have brought disruptive thinking innovations to the automotive industry.

The “Intelligent Theory of Relativity” feels that the current new forces presented to the industry and users are still a traditional impression.

On the intelligent ability of the product, it is still a few blocks away from Tesla; on the brand building and innovation of marketing methods, the original home of XX, which was originally positioned as a communication space for car owners, is still 4S