This article is from WeChat official account:FutureCity (ID: caijingtod), author: Yao Siyu, plum instrument, head Figure from: vision China
At 0:00 on November 1, the seventh national census (hereinafter referred to as the “seven census”) was officially launched. As the most basic element and main driving force of economic and social development, the demographic factor has changed slowly but with great momentum.
China’s population census is once every 10 years. It is a periodic survey of the population, structure, and distribution of the country’s population. From this we can observe the changes in the economy and society in the past 10 years and provide directions for future population policy adjustments. And basis.
The Fifth Plenary Session of the Nineteenth Central Committee that closed last week did not introduce a new policy of relaxing family planning like the Fifth Plenary Session of the Eighteenth Central Committee. This may be related to the “Seventh Plenum”. According to past experience, the census data will be released in the middle of the following year, and by then, a new population policy may be introduced.
However, the trend of accelerating population aging in Mainland China will not stop due to the launch of the “Seven Census”.
▲ Data source: National Bureau of Statistics-the fourth and sixth census data
The fourth national census in 1990 was the first census after the implementation of the basic national policy of family planning.
The results of the “Four Census” show that China’s population pyramid structure is growing with a top tip and a wide bottom. The population of 20 to 39 years old is the largest, followed by the 0-9 year old population, and the entire age composition is young.
This shows that the proportion of the young and middle-aged population at that time was high, and there was sufficient power and reserve force for economic and social development, while the proportion of the elderly population was low and the consumption of social resources was low. On the whole, the economy had great potential for growth.
By the sixth population census in 2010, the effect of family planning appeared. The structure of China’s population pyramid began to show a shrinking type of tower-shaped lower part shrinking inward, and the number of newborns between 0-9 years old was greatly reduced. The population of young and middle-aged people in the past is beginning to enter middle age. In the future, this part of the population will become the main force of China’s elderly population.
There are fewer and fewer young people, and the number of older people continues to increase. As a result, the population is constantly aging.
▲ Data source: National Bureau of Statistics-Statistical Bulletin. Statistics object: 16-59 years old working age population
According to international practice, 15-64 years old are generally classified as working-age population.
However, in China, the current retirement age limit is 60 years old. Citizens over 16 years old but under 18 years old who can use their labor income as their main source of income can be regarded as persons with full capacity for civil conduct.
Therefore, the working-age population in China is calculated from 16 to 59 years old.
The working-age population is the source of the demographic dividend. However, the proportion of this part of the population began to have problems in the second year after the Sixth Census:
In 2012, the number of working-age population in China fell for the first time. It was 3.45 million less than in 2011, and has been decreasing year by year since then.
As of 2019, the absolute value of China’s 16-59-year-old working-age population has fallen by more than 40 million. The population alarm sounded.
▲ Data source: Human Resources and Social Security Development Statistical Bulletin of the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security over the years
Currently, China’s pension insurance implements a pay-as-you-go system, that is, a generation who is working in the same period needs to pay to pay for the pension of the retired generation. The decline in the working-age population has changed the pension dependency ratio.
From 2010 to 2019, the basic pension dependency ratio for urban employees decreased from 3.08 to 2.53, which means that an elderly person is supported by the original 3 working population and reduced to 2.5 working population. The burden of old-age care in society is getting heavier.
But in fact, the burden of the working-age population is far more than that. In addition to “the old people on the top”, they also “the small ones on the bottom.
The burden is so heavy, there are only two solutions: one is to broaden the base of the population pyramid, have more children, wait for more than ten or two decades, and expect the new population to turn into the mainstay of social production and consumption; the second is to reduce the elderly population The scale of the delay, retirement, and immediate changes to existing functions.
▲ Data source: National Bureau of Statistics-Statistical Bulletin. Source: China Business News, “China’s 4th baby boom did not arrive as scheduled, what will be the consequences?”
▲ Data source: National Bureau of Statistics-Statistical Bulletin/China Statistical Yearbook
Look at the policies and implementation effects of fertility first. In many people’s eyes, the response to demographic problems, including the aging of the population, is the direct reason for the full liberalization of the second-child policy.
Lin Yifu, Honorary Dean of the National Development Research Institute of Peking University, said when facing a reporter’s question, “It is too late to adjust the population policy, but it is better than no adjustment.”
From the data point of view, the fourth-generation baby boom, which should have arrived before 2010, is still absent. Even under the incentives of the “two-child alone” policy in 2013 and the full liberalization of the two-child policy in 2015, the number and speed of the new population is still not satisfactory.
The absence of the fourth-generation baby boom is directly related to the health of social security, and is also trapped in the “three new mountains” of housing, medical care and education.
As of the end of September 2020, the number of people participating in basic pension insurance, unemployment insurance, and work-related injury insurance was 987 million, 212 million, and 263 million, respectively. The number of social security card holders was 1.325 billion, covering 94.6% of the population.
As of the end of 2019, the national medical insurance participation rate has reached about 97%, and the goal of universal medical insurance is close to being achieved.
With the advancement of comprehensive and deepening reforms, China’s social security system has been gradually improved, old-age life has been secured, and the traditional concept of “raising children to prevent old age” has been watered down. People no longer expect more support from their children in old age fee.
At the same time, concepts such as “there are three unfilial piety, and that there is no success” and “more children, more happiness” are becoming more and more difficult to be recognized by the younger generation, and the expected income from having children has further shrunk.
The rapid increase in the cost of living is another important factor affecting people’s willingness to have children.
▲ Data source: Anjuke
In the ten years from 2011 to 2020, housing prices across the country have gone up. According to data from Anjuke’s official website, in 2011, the average house price in Beijing rose from 25,166 yuan per square meter to 57,600 yuan per square meter, a 2.3-fold increase.
▲ Data source: 2011-2019 my country’s Health Service Development Statistical Bulletin
In terms of medical expenses, from 2011 to 2019, the average outpatient fee in China increased from 180 yuan to 291 yuan; the single-day hospitalization fee rose from 643.6 yuan to 1079 yuan.
▲ Data source: Qianzhan Industry Research Institute
According to the data of the Prospective Industry Research Institute, from 2008 to 2018, the scale of household education expenditure in China increased from 6,720 yuan to 15,600 yuan, an increase of about 132.1%.
At the same time, the per capita income of urban residents in China has increased from 15,781 yuan to 28,228 yuan, an increase of about 148.7%. The expenditure of Chinese parents on children’s education has been increasing year by year, and education expenditure has always played a pivotal role in the consideration of fertility issues.
▲ Data source: National Bureau of Statistics Census Data, World Development Indicators Database-China-Total Fertility Rate
The results of sampling data in 2019 show that China’s total fertility rate is 1.69, which means that each couple has an average of 1.69 children. From the theoretical point of view of total fertility rate, this number is far from the standard of healthy iteration of intergenerational population.
It is generally believed that in order to keep the population the same, when one generation changes, plus accidental deaths, the total fertility rate should be 2.1, that is, a small number of couples need to have three children to offset the accident caused The population is decreasing.
Affected by family planning, China’s total fertility rate has been below 2.1 since the early 1990s. According to the World Development Index database (CSDN) data show that since 2010, China’s total fertility rate has remained at around 1.65.
▲ Data source: research literature. Wang Lijuan. (2015). Simulation prediction of China’s population structure under different birth policies. Hebei Enterprise (3), 25-27.
If the total fertility rate is allowed to continue to fall, how will China’s population evolve in the future?
Scholar Wang Lijuan made a simulation prediction of China’s population structure under different fertility policies in a 2015 study.
The results show that if fertility is liberalized, the population structure will be adjusted in the next 30 years, and the degree of aging will be greatly eased.
Obviously, liberalizing fertility is a fundamental strategy to alleviate population problems.
In addition, delaying retirement and reducing the size of the pension group are also feasible methods: increase the net income of individuals in the labor market, offset the increase in net expenditures brought about by extended life expectancy, and restore the balance of personal life cycle income and expenditure .
▲ Data source: National Bureau of Statistics
At the same time, the ever-increasing life expectancy will also offset the benefits of delayed retirement and add to the problem of population aging. In 2019, China’s average life expectancy has increased to 77.3 years. With the continuous improvement of medical technology, people’s life expectancy will only get longer.
The problem of declining birthrates and aging population in China has become increasingly serious, and the future plan for the adjustment of the fertility policy is on the line, and it is urgent.
Reference material:
【1】China Statistical Yearbook
【2】National Bureau of Statistics-National Census Data
【3】2011-2019 Statistical Communiqué on the Development of my country’s Health Service
【4】World Development Index Database-China-Total Fertility Rate
[5] “China’s Fertility Report 2019: The Demographic Crisis Is Gradually Approaching To Fully Liberalize Fertility Imperative” “China Population Report 2020: The Challenge of Low Birth and Aging Population”, Ren Zeping
【6] “Can deregulation of birth control solve the problems of aging and “labor shortage” and also on the macro policy choices in the context of the change of population generations”, Huang Shaoan, Yang Hualei
【7】Wang Lijuan. (2015). Simulation prediction of China’s population structure under different birth policies. Hebei Enterprise (3), 25-27.
This article is from WeChat official account: future city FutureCity (ID: caijingtod) , author: Yao Siyu , Meiziyi